【现货】据Mysteel，截至12月10日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12800元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12750元/吨，日环比持平；基差415元/吨，日环比下跌55元/吨。 【操作建议】主力参考12400-12800 【短期观点】震荡调整 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供应】据Mysteel统计11月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量预计345.92万吨，月环比减少6.18万吨，降幅 1.6%，同比增加4.2%；300系179.38万吨，月环比减少0.62万吨，降幅0.3%，同比增加0.4%。12月不锈 钢粗钢预计排产328.57万吨，月环比减少5.02%，同比增加4.2%；其中300系171.47万吨，月环比减少 4.4%，同比减少7.6。目前钢厂整体减产力度有限，年末 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a period of price stability, with fluctuations in production and inventory levels, while demand remains weak in the off-season [3][4]. Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.6%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2]. - The production forecast for December is 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2]. - The 300 series output is expected to be 1.7147 million tons in December, down 4.4% month-on-month and down 7.6% year-on-year [2]. - Steel mills are facing limited production cuts, but year-end maintenance is increasing, and some companies may arrange for early annual maintenance due to loss pressures [2]. Inventory - Social inventory reduction is insufficient, with a trend of decline in warehouse receipts [2]. - As of December 5, the social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,800 tons [2]. - On December 8, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 61,556 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,442 tons [2]. Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent price increases from steel mills and the transfer of inventory pressure to agents and traders [3]. - The nickel ore market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling previous orders, while Indonesian domestic benchmark prices have decreased by $0.52 to $0.91 per wet ton [3]. - Nickel-iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (including tax), with the market's bargaining range adjusted upwards, and iron mills' profit losses have somewhat recovered [3]. - Demand remains weak in the off-season, with limited order releases in downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction decoration, leading to a general reliance on just-in-time inventory [3]. Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience a period of adjustment within the range of 12,400 to 12,800 yuan [4]. - Overall, while macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing and supply pressures are easing, weak demand in the off-season and insufficient inventory reduction are significant challenges [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rebar, short - term construction steel enterprises' production cuts and maintenance are increasing, leading to a significant decline in rebar production. Although the apparent demand has declined, the inventory reduction has accelerated. It is expected that rebar will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend in the short term [5][8]. - For iron ore, short - term imported ore shipments have increased slightly, but the expected arrival volume will decline significantly next week, and port inventory pressure will gradually ease. The daily iron water volume and steel mill's daily consumption are decreasing, and steel mills are mainly adopting the winter storage replenishment strategy. It is expected that iron ore will maintain a range - bound trend later [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 05 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation driven by the long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.28% [5]. - **Spot**: This week, the mainstream rebar prices in various regions continued to rise slightly, with average trading. As of Friday, the national average rebar price increased by 35 yuan to 3326 yuan/ton. Prices in different regions showed mixed trends [5]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased. The average operating rate of 90 electric - furnace steel mills decreased, while the capacity utilization rate increased. Rebar weekly output decreased by 16.77 tons to 189.31 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, building material trading volume and rebar's apparent consumption both declined slightly, and the apparent consumption remained at a low level in the same period [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 27.67 tons to 503.81 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [8]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the rebar 05 contract, a contraction of 37 yuan from last week. The rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected to contract in the future [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 05 contract maintained a weak consolidation driven by the short - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 769.0 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.13% [8]. - **Spot**: This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties generally decreased slightly, and the prices of domestic iron concentrates began to stabilize and decline, with average trading [8]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: As of the 1st, the total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2765.8 tons, an increase of 128.4 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 117.8 tons. The arrival volume has quickly recovered to the high level of the same period [11]. - **Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased. The weekly average trading volume of port spot iron ore increased. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills decreased. All indicators remained at medium - to - high levels in the same period [11]. - **Inventory**: As of the 28th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory continued to increase slightly, reaching 15300.81 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased to 8984.73 tons, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period [11]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the best - delivery product, the Carajás fines at Rizhao Port, was 808 yuan/ton, with a premium of 23 yuan over the iron ore 05 contract, a contraction of 3 yuan from last week. The iron ore basis is above the average, and it is expected to continue to contract in the future [11].

【现货】据Mysteel，截至12月4日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12700元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12650元/吨，日环比持平；基差445元/吨，日环比上涨40元/吨。 【操作建议】主力参考12300-12700 【短期观点】震荡调整 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【原料】矿端消持稳为主，招标落地市场相对平静。菲律宾方面，矿山多履行前期订单出货为主；北部 矿山尚未开启新招标；印尼方面，12月(一期)内贸基准价走跌0.52-0.91美元/湿吨，主流内贸升水维持 +26。镍铁价格区间继续下移，下游主流钢厂镍铁招标新低下跌至880元/镍(舱底含税)，铁厂生产积极 性不高，对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。不锈钢低迷氛围间接影响铬铁市场走弱，铬铁供应压力加大，叠 加铬矿价格走跌， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - **Steel**: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [3] - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect spot exposures [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Speculators should mainly go long on far-month contracts at low prices [3] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of steel prices is weak, and the black sector is in a range-bound pattern. There is support at low prices due to potential restocking, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production cut logic and observe the start of winter storage restocking [3] - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand, despite strong cost support [3] - The decline in coking coal spot auction prices has narrowed, and some coal varieties have rebounded slightly. The futures are still weak. It is expected that the previous low will form strong support, and far - month contracts can be bought at low prices [3] - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range. Due to increasing inventory pressure, it is advisable to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **December 2nd Closing Prices and Changes**: The far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, JM2605 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton, 3322.00 yuan/ton, 775.50 yuan/ton, 1764.50 yuan/ton, and 1179.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 25.00 yuan, 15.00 yuan, 3.50 yuan, 21.50 yuan, and 15.50 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.80%, 0.45%, 0.45%, 1.23%, and 1.33%. The near - month (main) contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 closed at 3133.00 yuan/ton, 3325.00 yuan/ton, 800.50 yuan/ton, 1629.50 yuan/ton, and 1096.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, 4.00 yuan, 39.00 yuan, and 20.00 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.35%, 0.30%, 0.50%, 2.45%, and 1.86% [1] - **Cross - month Spreads and Changes**: On December 2nd, the cross - month spreads RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, JM2601 - 2605 were - 36.00 yuan/ton, 3.00 yuan/ton, 25.00 yuan/ton, - 135.00 yuan/ton, and - 83.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3.00 yuan, - 4.00 yuan, 1.50 yuan, 15.50 yuan, and 7.00 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits and Changes**: On December 2nd, the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, coal - to - coke ratio, rebar paper profit, and coking paper profit were 192.00 yuan, 3.91, 1.49, - 60.33 yuan, and 171.16 yuan respectively, with changes of - 1.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 5.18 yuan, and 5.35 yuan [1] Spot Market - **December 2nd Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3320.00 yuan/ton, 3240.00 yuan/ton, 3560.00 yuan/ton, 2990.00 yuan/ton, and 107.80 respectively, with changes of 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.45 [1] - **Base Prices and Changes**: On December 2nd, the base prices of HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 5.00 yuan/ton, 187.00 yuan/ton, 9.00 yuan/ton, 158.19 yuan/ton, and 123.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 2.00 yuan, 11.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and - 128.50 yuan [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, during the consumption off - season, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, with large inventory pressure, but the market is more focused on policy expectations. For the iron ore market, the decline in iron - water production and slow inventory reduction in the steel market suppress prices, while policy factors provide support [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, threaded rod production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. Overall inventory continued to decline, but hot - rolled coil inventory was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills' production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Recently, coal and coke prices have shown a weakening trend, weakening the cost support for steel [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures price fluctuated upward at a low level, reaching a one - month high, and there is a possibility of an upward breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the trend of the 05 contract [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the iron - water production of sample steel mills decreased significantly, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron - water production is expected to continue to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will come later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from a high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also affects market sentiment. However, policies support the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract's futures price has broken through the suppression of the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market for medium - term long - positions [4] 3.3 Industry News - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2139 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 822,000 tons, a slight rebound. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter [6] - As of December 2nd, 2025, two steel mills announced winter storage policies, with one in Northeast China and one in North China. Two new steel mills were added today, with fixed - price locked - in goods, no price increase in case of market rise, price decrease in case of market fall, and the option to set the price at any time. The price is guaranteed until March 31st, 2026 [6] - According to Longzhong Information, the 600 - ton production line of Benxi Fuyao Float Glass Co., Ltd. was ignited on November 29th. As of December 1st, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 2.4% month - on - month to 10.1 days, a year - on - year decrease of 17.9% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, the apparent demand for thread increased, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline, but the inventory of hot - rolled coil was significantly higher than in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. Due to the sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. In the off - season of consumption, the futures price has limited upward momentum. Technically, the futures price is oscillating at a low level on the daily K - line chart, and the oscillation range is narrowing, indicating a potential breakthrough [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron - making water production of sample steel mills decreased, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, it is expected that the iron - making water production will likely continue to decline seasonally, and the reduction of steel mill production will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will also come later than usual. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the high level, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. Additionally, the arrival volume increased significantly last week, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Price Data**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.23%) from the previous day and up 29 yuan (0.94%) from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3304 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.15%) from the previous day and up 27 yuan (0.82%) from last week. Other related prices also showed different trends [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of national building material steel mill thread steel was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons (3.98%) from last week; the production of hot - rolled coil was 316.01 tons, up 2.35 tons (0.75%) from last week. The total social inventory of five major varieties decreased by 31.98 tons (- 3.01%) from last week, the thread social inventory decreased by 15.73 tons (- 3.78%), and the hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased by 8.91 tons (- 2.68%) [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long for medium - term trading [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 797 yuan/dry ton, up 3 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and up 5.5 yuan (0.69%) from last week. Other related prices also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1676.7 tons, down 65.2 tons (- 3.74%) from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 712.4 tons, down 59.6 tons (- 7.72%) from last week. The northern six - port arrival volume increased by 397 tons (38.13%) from last week, and the port inventory decreased by 75.06 tons (- 0.50%) [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [5]. **III. Industry News** - In mid - November, key steel enterprises produced 1943 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 194.3 million tons, a daily - output increase of 0.9% month - on - month; 1797 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 179.7 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 0.4% month - on - month; and 1924 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 192.4 million tons, a daily - output increase of 2.1% month - on - month [7]. - According to Zhaogang.com data, the national building material production was 441.67 tons, a decrease of 4.62 tons from last week; the factory inventory was 394.17 tons, a decrease of 20.68 tons from last week; the social inventory was 470.96 tons, a decrease of 19.68 tons from last week; and the total inventory was 865.13 tons, a decrease of 40.36 tons from last week [7]. - On November 26, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market fell across the board. As of now, among the 9 transaction results counted, with a total listing of 24 tons, the flow - rate was about 62%, and the average decline was 53 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Treat unilaterally with a low-range oscillation mindset; opportunistically participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [10] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Investment clients should short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated options to protect spot exposures [10] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilaterally focus on short - term trading, wait and see for the medium - to long - term, and liquidate previously recommended hedging short positions [10] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [10] 2. Core Views - The steel price is oscillating in a low - level range, waiting for new drivers. The short - term macro - expectation may be in a vacuum, and the industry contradictions are not obvious. Steel output is expected to gradually decline [2][3] - The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is poor, and the price is under pressure. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the oversupply pattern continues [4][6] - The expectation of coke price cuts is increasing, and the futures price is pricing in 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The current decline may be near the end, and the next round of downstream restocking is expected to start around mid - December [7][8] - The fundamental situation of iron ore is still weak, with clear upward pressure. The inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures: On November 21, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3098 yuan/ton with a decline of 5 yuan (- 0.16%); HC2605 closed at 3274 yuan/ton with a decline of 1 yuan (- 0.03%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3057 yuan/ton with an increase of 2 yuan (0.07%); HC2601 closed at 3270 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Spot: On November 21, Shanghai螺纹 was 3230 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; Tianjin螺纹 was 3190 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 yuan; Guangzhou螺纹 was 3420 yuan/ton with no change. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Market situation: The price is oscillating in a low - level range. The short - term macro - expectation is in a vacuum, and the industry contradictions are not obvious. The steel output is expected to gradually decline [2][3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental situation: As the steel price is under pressure and the steel mill profit shrinks, the direct demand has weakened significantly. The alloy plant profit is poor, but the output is still high, and the supply - demand surplus pattern persists [4][6] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: The domestic market sentiment has weakened, and the expectation of coke price cuts has increased. The coking coal spot auction prices mostly declined. The port - traded quasi - first - class coke was quoted at 1480 yuan (weekly - on - weekly - 50), and the coking coal price index was 1378.8 (weekly - on - weekly - 27.3) [8] - Futures: This week, the macro continued to fluctuate. The black sector fell after speculation about the environmental supervision team's entry time. Coking coal and coke led the decline. The current decline may be near the end, and the next round of downstream restocking is expected to start around mid - December [8] Iron Ore - Fundamental situation: The short - term arrival at ports has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipments are not greatly affected. Under the pressure of molten iron, the inventory will continue to accumulate. The operation should be short - selling on rallies [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing a complex situation with weakening cost support and potential negative feedback loops due to falling steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season. Both steel and iron ore prices are under pressure, but there may be opportunities for long - positions after price stabilization [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the apparent demand for threaded steel decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly. Steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Coal, coke, and iron ore prices are weakening, reducing cost support [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of both threaded steel and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 200.00 million tons, down 4.10% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 313.66 million tons, down 1.41% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory was 1061.38 million tons, down 1.27% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 415.75 million tons, down 2.34% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 332.99 million tons, down 0.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The five - major varieties of apparent demand was 860.61 million tons, down 0.73% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 216.37 million tons, down 0.98% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **News and Market Impact**: The Simandou Iron Ore has finally started production, which is expected to affect the overall supply. Steel mills are reducing production due to falling profits and the end of the consumption peak season, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from the peak, and port inventories are rising, putting pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, and there is resistance from the dense trading area above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.64% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.78% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 606.9 million tons, down 23.09% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 9977.79 million tons, up 3.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - **Steel Billet Inventory**: According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan area was 119.63 million tons this week, down 1.35% from last week [6]. - **Threaded Steel Data**: As of the week of November 13, threaded steel production, apparent demand, factory inventory, and social inventory all decreased [6]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On November 13, the coking coal auction in Linfen Puxian market showed a decline [7]. - **Steel Enterprise Data**: In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and the daily production of crude steel increased while that of steel decreased [7]. - **Coking Plant Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton this week [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows a situation where the previous week's data indicated a decline in apparent demand, a slowdown in destocking, and continued production cuts by steel mills. The decline in hot metal production restrains iron ore. Considering the high steel inventory and the winter storage pressure, the hot metal production of steel mills for the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron element supply on the January contract is turning to be loose, and the iron element chain has the basis for negative feedback, with interference from the steel mills' winter iron ore replenishment. The carbon element supply is tight, and it is expected that the iron element will be generally weaker than the carbon element. Unilaterally, pay attention to the performance of the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils. The strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coils arbitrage can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures rebounded in the afternoon yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports dropped significantly. Based on recent shipment data, the average future arrivals are expected to increase. On the demand side, the profit margins of steel mills have declined significantly, the hot metal production has dropped from a high level, and the steel mills' replenishment demand has weakened. The steel production and inventory decreased slightly, and the apparent demand dropped significantly. The port inventory increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory rose. Looking ahead, due to the weak steel prices, the profitability of steel mills will continue to decline, and the weak demand will force iron ore to operate weakly. Rio Tinto's third - quarter report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short iron ore [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile decline. The Shanxi spot auction prices were strong, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. The domestic coking coal market continued to be strong, and downstream still had replenishment demand, but the rapid rise in coking coal made traders cautious. Some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai began to resume production, and it is expected that the coking coal supply will increase, but the production recovery is limited. Since November, the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly, the port inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the Mongolian coal quotes have loosened. The demand for coking coal has weakened due to the decline in hot metal production caused by profit decline and environmental restrictions. The coal mines and steel mills reduced inventory, while the coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals increased inventory. The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on the future market, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the range of 1250 - 1350 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by falling steel prices. - For coke, the futures also showed a volatile decline. The spot market had a different rhythm from the futures. The port trade quotes were stable, and the mainstream coking enterprises' third - round price increase was implemented, and the fourth - round increase was initiated. The coking coal price is strong, providing cost support for coke, but coking enterprises still face losses after the price increase, and their production has decreased. The demand for coke has been affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, resulting in a significant decline in hot metal production, weak steel prices, and low steel mill profits. The coking plants, ports, and steel mills all reduced inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. Coke is still expected to increase in price due to cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips in the range of 1700 - 1850 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by falling steel prices [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 7 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Hot - rolled coils: The spot price in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while those in North China and South China remained unchanged. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 9 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of various regions and production methods all decreased [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal production was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The production of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons (- 2.1%). The rebar production was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons (- 1.9%), including a decrease in electric - furnace production by 0.3 tons (- 0.9%) and a decrease in converter production by 3.8 tons (- 2.1%). The hot - rolled coil production was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons (- 1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons (- 0.7%). The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10.0 tons (- 1.7%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.8 tons, an increase of 2.1 tons (23.8%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons (- 5.4%). The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons (- 5.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons (- 5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types changed. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore types at Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index decreased [5]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) were 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons (- 14.8%). The global shipments (weekly) were 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons (- 4.5%). The national monthly import volume increased by 10.6% [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased slightly. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 1.3%, and the 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 1.8% [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The sample coal mine profit decreased [8]. Overseas Coal Prices and Upstream Coking Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged, and the coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price increased slightly [8]. Supply - The coking coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines and the coking coal production of the whole sample coking plants decreased. The coke production of 247 steel mills and the whole sample coking plants also decreased [8]. Demand - The hot metal production and coke production decreased [8]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of various entities changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. The total coke inventory and the inventory of various entities also changed [8].