| | | | | | | | E ST ART FOR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/24 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | - 1000 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is facing a complex situation with weakening cost support and potential negative feedback loops due to falling steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season. Both steel and iron ore prices are under pressure, but there may be opportunities for long - positions after price stabilization [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the apparent demand for threaded steel decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. The inventory of hot - rolled coil increased slightly. Steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Coal, coke, and iron ore prices are weakening, reducing cost support [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures prices of both threaded steel and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3254 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 200.00 million tons, down 4.10% from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 313.66 million tons, down 1.41% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The five - major varieties of social inventory was 1061.38 million tons, down 1.27% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 415.75 million tons, down 2.34% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 332.99 million tons, down 0.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The five - major varieties of apparent demand was 860.61 million tons, down 0.73% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 216.37 million tons, down 0.98% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **News and Market Impact**: The Simandou Iron Ore has finally started production, which is expected to affect the overall supply. Steel mills are reducing production due to falling profits and the end of the consumption peak season, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from the peak, and port inventories are rising, putting pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band, and there is resistance from the dense trading area above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 772.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.64% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.78% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1564.5 million tons, down 4.59% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 606.9 million tons, down 23.09% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 14898.83 million tons, up 2.45% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 9977.79 million tons, up 3.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - **Steel Billet Inventory**: According to Buguwang data, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan area was 119.63 million tons this week, down 1.35% from last week [6]. - **Threaded Steel Data**: As of the week of November 13, threaded steel production, apparent demand, factory inventory, and social inventory all decreased [6]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On November 13, the coking coal auction in Linfen Puxian market showed a decline [7]. - **Steel Enterprise Data**: In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased, and the daily production of crude steel increased while that of steel decreased [7]. - **Coking Plant Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton this week [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows a situation where the previous week's data indicated a decline in apparent demand, a slowdown in destocking, and continued production cuts by steel mills. The decline in hot metal production restrains iron ore. Considering the high steel inventory and the winter storage pressure, the hot metal production of steel mills for the January contract is likely to fall rather than rise. The iron element supply on the January contract is turning to be loose, and the iron element chain has the basis for negative feedback, with interference from the steel mills' winter iron ore replenishment. The carbon element supply is tight, and it is expected that the iron element will be generally weaker than the carbon element. Unilaterally, pay attention to the performance of the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils. The strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coils arbitrage can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures rebounded in the afternoon yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, and the arrivals at 45 ports dropped significantly. Based on recent shipment data, the average future arrivals are expected to increase. On the demand side, the profit margins of steel mills have declined significantly, the hot metal production has dropped from a high level, and the steel mills' replenishment demand has weakened. The steel production and inventory decreased slightly, and the apparent demand dropped significantly. The port inventory increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory rose. Looking ahead, due to the weak steel prices, the profitability of steel mills will continue to decline, and the weak demand will force iron ore to operate weakly. Rio Tinto's third - quarter report shows that the overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short iron ore [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile decline. The Shanxi spot auction prices were strong, and the Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with the futures. The domestic coking coal market continued to be strong, and downstream still had replenishment demand, but the rapid rise in coking coal made traders cautious. Some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai began to resume production, and it is expected that the coking coal supply will increase, but the production recovery is limited. Since November, the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly, the port inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the Mongolian coal quotes have loosened. The demand for coking coal has weakened due to the decline in hot metal production caused by profit decline and environmental restrictions. The coal mines and steel mills reduced inventory, while the coking plants, coal washing plants, ports, and terminals increased inventory. The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on the future market, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the range of 1250 - 1350 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by falling steel prices. - For coke, the futures also showed a volatile decline. The spot market had a different rhythm from the futures. The port trade quotes were stable, and the mainstream coking enterprises' third - round price increase was implemented, and the fourth - round increase was initiated. The coking coal price is strong, providing cost support for coke, but coking enterprises still face losses after the price increase, and their production has decreased. The demand for coke has been affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, resulting in a significant decline in hot metal production, weak steel prices, and low steel mill profits. The coking plants, ports, and steel mills all reduced inventory slightly, and the overall inventory decreased slightly from the middle level. Coke is still expected to increase in price due to cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips in the range of 1700 - 1850 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke, while guarding against the negative feedback risk caused by falling steel prices [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 7 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Hot - rolled coils: The spot price in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while those in North China and South China remained unchanged. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 9 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of various regions and production methods all decreased [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal production was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The production of five major steel products was 856.7 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons (- 2.1%). The rebar production was 208.5 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons (- 1.9%), including a decrease in electric - furnace production by 0.3 tons (- 0.9%) and a decrease in converter production by 3.8 tons (- 2.1%). The hot - rolled coil production was 318.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons (- 1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1503.6 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons (- 0.7%). The rebar inventory was 592.5 tons, a decrease of 10.0 tons (- 1.7%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 410.5 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.8 tons, an increase of 2.1 tons (23.8%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 866.9 tons, a decrease of 49.5 tons (- 5.4%). The apparent demand for rebar was 218.5 tons, a decrease of 13.7 tons (- 5.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.6 tons (- 5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types changed. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore types at Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index decreased [5]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) were 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons (- 14.8%). The global shipments (weekly) were 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons (- 4.5%). The national monthly import volume increased by 10.6% [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons (- 0.9%). The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased slightly. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 1.3%, and the 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 1.8% [5]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The sample coal mine profit decreased [8]. Overseas Coal Prices and Upstream Coking Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged, and the coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price increased slightly [8]. Supply - The coking coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines and the coking coal production of the whole sample coking plants decreased. The coke production of 247 steel mills and the whole sample coking plants also decreased [8]. Demand - The hot metal production and coke production decreased [8]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of various entities changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. The total coke inventory and the inventory of various entities also changed [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The iron element supply is in a loose pattern, and the decrease in hot metal production suppresses iron ore prices. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter to ease the pressure of winter storage. The single-side prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of longing coking coal and shorting hot-rolled coils can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. The supply side has a rebound in port arrivals, while the demand side sees a decline in hot metal production and weakening restocking demand from steel mills. The inventory pressure is increasing. The iron ore driving force is weakening. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke Industry - The coke futures fluctuated downward. The spot price has been raised for the third time, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The cost is supported by the rebound of coking coal prices, but the demand is suppressed by environmental protection restrictions and low steel mill profits. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures fluctuated downward, with a divergence between the futures and the spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar 05 contract decreased by 37 to 3108, and the hot-rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 32 to 3272 [2]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price decreased by 20 to 2930, and the plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730. The profits of hot-rolled coils in East China and North China decreased by 10, while the profit in South China remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.5 to 239.9, with a growth rate of 1.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 10 to 875.3, with a growth rate of 1.2% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7, with a decline rate of -2.6%. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 to 602.5, with a decline rate of -3.1% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3, with a decline rate of -5.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 916.4, with a growth rate of 2.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The costs of various iron ore warehouse receipts decreased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 6.6 to 829.3, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ores in Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 6 to 782, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4, with a growth rate of 58.6%. The global shipments decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8, with a decline rate of -5.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5%. The national pig iron monthly production decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6, with a decline rate of -5.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 to 14714.08, with a growth rate of 1.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9, with a decline rate of -2.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612. The coke 01 contract decreased by 43 to 1729, with a decline rate of -2.4% [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, with a growth rate of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 59.9, with a growth rate of 2.1% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 to -3.6, with a growth rate of 49.2% [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 32 to 1253, with a decline rate of -2.5% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 3.8 to 851.8, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean coal production increased by 1.5 to 434.9, with a growth rate of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 to 81.1, with a decline rate of -10.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, with a growth rate of 2.2% [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [8] 2) Core Views - The supply - demand of steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, inventory pressure cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The port inventory of iron ore has increased, and the price is oscillating. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has contracted month - on - month, and the prices are rebounding. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the market's acceptance of the second - round price increase of coke is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, environmental protection, and Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][6]. - The shipping cost of thermal coal remains high, and the price is continuing to run strongly. Although the supply of market coal is slightly affected by safety inspections, the overall impact is small. The winter storage demand and non - power coal demand are strong, so the short - term price is stable and bullish [8]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures rose slightly. The production and consumption of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased month - on - month. The inventory reduction in the building materials peak season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction of plates is still prominent [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded significantly. Due to the situation in Mongolia, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the spot resources at ports were in short supply. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is restricted by profit compression [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, safety inspections are strict, supply is tightened, and prices are rising. At ports, the inventory accumulation is slow, and the shipping cost remains high, supporting the price. The price advantage of imported coal is obvious, and the downstream bidding is increasing [8]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear strategy in the text, but factors such as coal mine safety supervision, port inventory accumulation, and coal consumption need to be focused on [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis and a slight increase in steel prices. However, the inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market remains prominent. The short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The iron ore market has seen a small rebound. With the successful first shipment from Simandou, the overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices, and the subsequent demand is expected to weaken as steel mill profit shrinks and production cut expectations increase [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows that the futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, and the elimination of backward coking capacity is accelerating. The overall supply of coking coal is slightly shrinking, and the demand for coke is showing a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. - The thermal coal market has seen a significant increase in coal prices due to strong downstream demand. Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large, and the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main steel futures contract rose on a month - on - month basis. The production of building materials and hot - rolled coils in the country declined this week, inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the apparent demand rebounded on a month - on - month basis. The overall spot steel trading was average, with prices basically stable or slightly rising, and a strong willingness to sell at low prices [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The inventory reduction in the peak building materials season is less than in previous years. The industrial side needs to reduce prices, compress profits, and cut production to relieve the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure. The high - production and high - inventory contradiction in the plate market is still prominent. Short - term macro - expectation changes affect the market trend, and the steel inventory pressure cannot be ignored [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price rebounded slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major domestic ports was 1.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.56%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 0.866 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.9%. The first shipment from Simandou was successful recently, and it is expected to achieve the target smoothly in the future [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The current overall iron ore valuation is high, the supply is relatively loose at high prices. As steel mill profit shrinks, the expectation of steel mill production cuts is increasing, and the subsequent iron ore demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project's shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate weakly [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures prices oscillated strongly. In the imported coal market, traders were cautious, and quotes fluctuated with the market, with a general trading atmosphere. The environmental protection in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is tightening, affecting the local supply decline. Wuhai and Ordos are accelerating the elimination of 4.3 - meter coke ovens, involving a total production capacity of more than 10 million tons [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: For coking coal, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, and environmental protection restrictions have affected domestic production, resulting in a slight contraction in overall supply. The downstream blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output have declined slightly, and enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand with weak restocking willingness. For coke, some coking enterprises are at the break - even point due to rising coal prices, and the production enthusiasm is limited. Coupled with the elimination of backward production capacity in Inner Mongolia, the coke supply is restricted. Steel mills have large inventory pressure, and the molten iron output is declining, so the actual demand for coke shows a marginal weakening trend [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillate [7]. - Coke: Oscillate [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, recent safety inspections are strict, the number of coal mines with production suspension and reduction has increased, the overall supply has tightened, the upstream quotes are firm, and the downstream terminal demand is continuously released, so the pit - mouth coal price continues to rise. At ports, the coal price is running strongly. The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway is still in the maintenance stage, the shipping volume increase is limited, and the port inventory accumulation speed is relatively slow. In the import market, the recent trend of the imported coal market is stable, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, downstream tenders are gradually increasing, and the import bid price has increased slightly [7]. - Supply - demand and logic: Although the recent safety inspections have affected the supply of market coal to some extent, the overall impact is not large. The downstream winter storage demand is good, and the non - power coal demand is strong, so the short - term coal price is stable and slightly strong [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is experiencing weak sentiment with prices trending downwards due to high post - holiday production, average demand, slow inventory reduction, and shrinking steel mill profits. The market is also influenced by geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - The iron ore market is under cautious observation with prices weakening. Although demand is resilient, the expected increase in future supply and high current price valuations suggest potential downside risks, especially considering possible steel mill profit changes and steel production cuts [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market shows no obvious supply - demand contradictions and is expected to move in a sideways pattern. Macroeconomic policies and supply - demand dynamics on both sides need to be monitored [5][6]. - The动力煤 market has seen rising prices in the production areas due to positive downstream demand. In the short term, prices will move sideways, while in the long - term, the supply remains ample [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of rebar closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil at 3421 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average, with the national building materials trading volume at 94,577 tons, a daily decrease of 10.8% and a weekly increase of 17.51%. Post - holiday steel production remained high, demand was average, inventory reduction was slow, and steel mill profits continued to shrink [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for single - side trading is to expect a sideways - to - downward movement [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened. The main 2601 contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports declined. The total transaction volume of main ports was 185.9 million tons, a 95.27% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 91 million tons, a 44.44% increase. Iron ore arrivals increased significantly this week, iron - water production remained high, and port inventories increased slightly [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended single - side trading strategy is a sideways - to - downward movement [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The futures of double - coking oscillated. The coke market was stable, with most steel mills purchasing for immediate needs. The production of coking coal was gradually recovering, but was affected by some factors. The customs system failure at the Ganqimaodu port led to a significant decline in customs clearance [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [7]. 动力煤 - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices continued to rise due to positive downstream demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries. At ports, the market sentiment was good, but the transaction was deadlocked. The imported coal market was strong, and the price advantage was obvious [8]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategy was provided [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the steel and iron ore futures markets are boosted by steel mill production cut news, showing a rebound trend. For steel, with the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, steel demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the short - term steel price rebound has great pressure. For iron ore, high hot metal production and low steel mill inventories strongly support the price, but attention should be paid to the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand and steel mill production cuts on hot metal [3][7][10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Steel Futures - This week, the steel 10 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by long - position main force position - increasing. As of Friday, it closed at 3072 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.57% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream steel prices in major regions generally increased significantly, and overall trading improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average steel price increased by 65 yuan to 3263 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, etc. also increased to varying degrees [5] Fundamentals - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.46%, a 0.36% week - on - week decrease and a 0.65% year - on - year increase; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease and a 1.21% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 66.87%, a 3.27% week - on - week decrease and a 3.12% year - on - year decrease; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 51.05%, a 3.44% week - on - week decrease and a 2.03% year - on - year increase. The weekly steel production increased by 3.24 tons to 221.08 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Demand**: This week, the building materials trading volume and the apparent steel consumption both increased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume increased by 1.12 tons to 10.85 tons, and the apparent steel consumption increased by 4.96 tons to 224.87 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent steel consumption remained at a low level in the same period [7] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products continued to increase slightly, while the steel inventory continued to decrease slightly. As of Friday, the total steel inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons. In absolute terms, the current steel inventory remained at a low level in the same period. Among them, the social steel inventory increased by 1.34 tons to 364.74 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 5.13 tons to 180.47 tons [7] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for steel in Shanghai was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 98 yuan over the steel 10 - contract, a 13 - yuan increase from last week. Currently, the steel basis is near the average. It is expected that the steel basis will likely increase in the future [7] 2. Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 09 - contract maintained a small - scale rebound driven by short - position main force position - reducing. As of Friday, it closed at 732.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.23% [7][8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, while the price of domestic iron ore concentrate remained stable, and overall trading was average. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties at ports such as Qingdao and Tianjin changed to varying degrees [9] Fundamentals - **Supply**: As of the 30th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2882.3 tons, a 178.5 - ton week - on - week decrease. The 45 - port iron ore arrivals were at a medium - to - high level in the same period. The 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons [9] - **Demand**: The current daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports is 319.29 tons, a 6.65 - ton week - on - week decrease; the weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot increased by 0.3 tons to 98.9 tons; the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240.85 tons, a 1.44 - ton week - on - week decrease; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 300.81 tons, a 0.43 - ton week - on - week decrease [9] - **Inventory**: As of July 4th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory started to increase slightly, currently at 13878.40 tons, a 51.83 - ton week - on - week decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8918.57 tons, a 71.1 - ton week - on - week increase [9] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the best - deliverable iron ore at Qingdao Port was 742 yuan/ton, with a premium of 9 yuan over the iron ore 10 - contract, a 12 - yuan decrease from last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is below the average, and it is expected that the future contraction space of the iron ore basis is limited [9]