Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/2/11 风险因素：1）地缘风险；2）东盟与印度经济增速不及预期；3）铁矿石与废钢供应超预期；4） 全球经济衰退。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。 This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. CITIC Futures will not consider re ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On December 22, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed a volatile and upward trend. Considering that the export of steel products has significantly decreased this year, the impact of export license management on some steel mills is expected to be limited. The support from the raw material end has reappeared. Although the spot price of coke is about to decline for the third consecutive round, the iron ore price has rebounded to the level of late November, which is of great significance for stabilizing the price center of steel products. The previous investment strategy of selling on rallies needs to be adjusted in a timely manner. The steel market may experience a certain degree of restorative rebound in the future [6][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis**: On December 22, the prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets increased. The prices of rebar in Hangzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Kunming, Guiyang, and Lanzhou rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Jinan decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil in Hangzhou, Wuxi, Changchun, and Chengdu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil continued to rise in a divergent manner. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2605 contract showed a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days, approaching a golden cross [8]. - **Future Outlook**: On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, announcing the implementation of export license management for some steel products, which will help enhance China's pricing power for high-end steel products globally, track trade flows, standardize export order, and improve industry efficiency and product competitiveness. Fundamentally, the supply and demand have been weak recently. The production of the five major steel products reached a new low since September last year, the social inventory has further decreased to a new low since the end of January, and the weekly consumption reached a new low since mid-October and the second lowest since mid-September. Affected by the continuous production cuts of steel mills, the cost of steel products has first decreased and then increased since late November, showing an overall downward trend. In terms of raw materials, the port iron ore inventory has reached a new high of 155 million tons since April 2022, while steel mills have chosen to further reduce their inventory. The total inventory of imported ore of 247 sample steel mills has decreased to 87.24 million tons, a decrease of 13.1% compared with the beginning of October. In the past two weeks, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly decreased and reached a new low since May last year. However, the decline in coking coal prices has led to continuous profitability of coking enterprises for 5 weeks, and the third round of price cuts for coke spot is about to be implemented. Recently, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. On December 4, the 10-day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 160,000 tons again, and further increased to 193,000 tons on December 13, an increase of 17.4% compared with the average since late November [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - Multiple government departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining and seal up abandoned mines [12]. - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts that China's steel consumption in 2025 may be 808 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the demand in 2026 may be 800 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% [12]. - As of December 15, the annual cumulative production of commercial coal by Zhunneng Group has exceeded the annual plan by 859,400 tons [12]. - Chongqing Iron and Steel plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, raising a maximum of 1 billion yuan [12]. - China Shenhua plans to acquire relevant assets worth 133.598 billion yuan [12]. - Western Mining's subsidiary has obtained a mining license for an iron polymetallic ore [12]. - Huaihe Energy states that its coal-fired power units are mainly supplied by long-term contracts and some market coal, and there is no plan to purchase coal from Mongolia and Indonesia [12]. - Huafu Securities predicts that coal supply will decline in 2026, and the overall coal market will improve. The central price of thermal coal is expected to rise to 770 yuan, and the central price of coking coal will stabilize at the bottom [12]. - As of December 18, the cumulative import and export freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port has reached a record high, with significant growth in the import of copper concentrate powder, manganese ore, and the export of goods [12]. - In November 2025, China's coal exports increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the import of coking coal decreased year-on-year and the import of thermal coal decreased year-on-year [12]. - China has requested consultations with India on its tariff measures for information and communication products and photovoltaic subsidy measures at the WTO [12]. - In November 2025, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, but the cumulative export volume from January to November increased year-on-year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides data charts on the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the inventory of the five major steel products in steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and the May contracts [16][17][18].

Global Steel Demand Forecast - The global steel demand is projected to reach 1.736 billion tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [1] - In 2025, the global steel consumption is expected to decline to 1.719 billion tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous year [1] China's Steel Demand Outlook - China's steel consumption is anticipated to be 808 million tons in 2025, marking a decline of 5.4% year-on-year, and further decreasing to 800 million tons in 2026, a drop of 1.0% [1] - The report indicates that the decline in steel consumption in China is primarily due to insufficient domestic demand, particularly from the real estate sector [1] Sector-Specific Steel Consumption - The construction sector in China is projected to consume approximately 40 million tons of steel in 2025, down 12.9% year-on-year, and about 38.4 million tons in 2026, a decrease of 4.1% [2] - The machinery sector is expected to maintain a stable growth, with steel consumption estimated at 18 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.7%, and 18.1 million tons in 2026, a growth of 0.6% [2] - The automotive industry is forecasted to consume 6.39 million tons of steel in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.9%, and 6.67 million tons in 2026, a rise of 4.4% [3] Summary of Steel Consumption by Industry - The following table summarizes the steel consumption forecast for various industries in China: | Industry | 2025 Consumption (10,000 tons) | Year-on-Year Growth (%) | 2026 Demand (10,000 tons) | Year-on-Year Growth (%) | |------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------| | Construction | 4003 | -12.9 | 3840 | -4.1 | | Machinery | 1800 | 1.7 | 1810 | 0.6 | | Automotive | 639 | 10.9 | 667 | 4.4 | | Energy | 513 | 4.1 | 499 | -2.7 | | Shipbuilding | 165 | 4.4 | 176 | 6.7 | | Home Appliances | 182 | 1.7 | 189 | 3.8 | | Railways | 48 | 0 | 47 | -2.1 | | Containers | 80 | -35.5 | 61 | -23.8 | | Hardware | 218 | 1.4 | 210 | -3.7 | | Steel-Wood Furniture | 135 | -2.2 | 133 | -1.5 | | Bicycles & Motorcycles | 58 | 9.4 | 61 | 5.2 | | Others | 202 | 4.1 | 212 | 5.0 | | **Total Steel Consumption** | **8043** | **-5.9** | **7905** | **-1.7** | [5]