Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: For RB2601, the closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.32%); trading volume was 883,015 lots, and the position decreased by 11,775 lots to 1,870,449 lots. For HC2601, the closing price was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.24%); trading volume was 337,428 lots, and the position increased by 1,955 lots to 1,369,716 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: In Shanghai, the spot price of rebar was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Hangzhou, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. For hot - rolled coils, in Shanghai, the price was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou, it was 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2601 was 123 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2601 was 42 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 was 36 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 [Macro and Industry News] - **Steel Union Weekly Data (September 25)**: Rebar production increased by 0.01 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 9.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 9.13 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.14 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 23.73 million tons [3]. - **Social Inventory in Mid - September**: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 941 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21 million tons (2.3%), and a year - on - year increase of 129 million tons (15.9%) [3][4]. - **National Steel Production in August**: The national production of crude steel was 7,737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 6,979 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel production was 12,277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4]. - **National Economic Data (January - August)**: The added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year [4]. - **Important Article in 'Qiushi'**: The article emphasizes efforts to rectify low - price disorderly competition among enterprises, government procurement and tendering irregularities, local investment promotion irregularities, promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and make up for the short - board of laws and regulations [4]. - **Steel Import and Export in August**: China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons (3.3%); imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons (10.6%) [4]. 3.3 [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the hot-rolled coil plate sector remains strong, with wide fluctuations [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,138 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); trading volume was 1,164,609 lots, and open interest was 2,122,341 lots, down 78,184 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,276 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.09%); trading volume was 454,659 lots, and open interest was 1,580,291 lots, down 19,457 lots [2] - **Spot Price Data**: In the spot market, prices of some regions for both rebar and hot-rolled coil plate remained stable, while some had minor changes. For example, Shanghai's rebar price dropped 10 yuan/ton, and Tianjin's hot-rolled coil plate price dropped 10 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou's hot-rolled coil plate price rose 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 decreased from 87 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton, and that of HC2510 decreased from 27 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had different degrees of changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Financial Data**: In late June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3] - **Steel Export Data**: In June 2025, China exported 967.8 million tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 90.0 million tons (8.5%); the average price was 687.1 dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton (1.5%). From January to June, the cumulative steel export was 5814.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 490.8 million tons (9.2%) [3][4] - **Weekly Steel Data**: According to the weekly data on July 10, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 4.42 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.00 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.44 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 4.84 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.63 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 0.35 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 3.37 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.86 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.19 million tons [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil plate is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Supply - Iron element production shows signs of decline, with daily pig iron output decreasing by 0.87 million tons to 2.447 million tons; scrap steel daily consumption remains stable at 0.545 million tons. The total output of the five major materials decreased by 0.058 million tons to 8.684 million tons, with rebar production increasing by 0.03 million tons to 2.265 million tons, and hot-rolled coil production decreasing by 0.084 million tons to 3.12 million tons. Cumulative iron element production from January to April increased by 11.5 million tons year-on-year, with a daily increase of nearly 0.1 million tons [2] Demand - Demand for steel has been revised upward due to the May Day holiday, with total demand for the five major materials increasing by 0.687 million tons to 9.138 million tons. Rebar demand increased by 0.46 million tons to 2.603 million tons, and hot-rolled coil demand increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.295 million tons. Steel exports from January to April reached 37.89 million tons, an increase of 2.87 million tons year-on-year, with a daily increase of 0.024 million tons [3] Inventory - Steel inventory continues to show a trend of reduction, with total inventory of the five major materials decreasing by 0.45 million tons to 14.307 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.338 million tons to 6.2 million tons, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.1755 million tons to 3.476 million tons [4] Cost and Profit - Coking coal prices have decreased, leading to a slight increase in steel prices and an expansion of profits. The profit for rebar at integrated steel mills remains at 50 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled coil maintains a profit of 100 yuan per ton. Electric arc furnace steel mills face a cost of 3169 yuan for off-peak electricity, with rebar electric arc furnace mills currently in a loss position [5] Market Outlook - Weekly data indicates a decline in iron element production, but current inventory and profit levels are sufficient to support high pig iron production. Steel inventory is decreasing, but cold-rolled and coated inventory is accumulating. As the industry approaches the off-season, attention is shifting to the potential decline in industrial material demand. The cost side shows a continuous drop in carbon elements, negatively impacting steel prices. The industry is characterized by high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and a recovery in demand expectations. Seasonal off-peak demand and potential declines in manufacturing demand (exports) are anticipated. Technically, prices face resistance at the 40-day moving average, with a weak market outlook. However, the current demand decline is not significant, and exports remain high, suggesting a low-price fluctuation trend, with attention on support levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil at 3000 and 3150 yuan respectively. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [6]