Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.48%, showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals seasonally weakening. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.52%, also showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, improving the supply - demand pattern and supporting prices. However, the demand's resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Its subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a daily decline of 0.57%, showing decreased volume and positions. Currently, positive factors have supported the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for ore is weakening while supply remains high, with the fundamentals continuously weakening and the upward driving force being weak. Under the game of multiple and short - selling factors, the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Starting from January 1, 2026, personal consumers will be subsidized for purchasing 6 categories of home appliances and 4 categories of digital and smart products. The subsidy standard is 15% of the final sales price after deductions, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per home appliance and 500 yuan per digital or smart product [7]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association preliminarily estimates that in 2026, over 12 million passenger cars are expected to enjoy subsidies, driving the consumption of nearly 1.5 million new cars [8]. - In December 2025, 9 iron ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,170 yuan, and the national average is 3,326 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, Tianjin is 3,180 yuan, and the national average is 3,291 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price is 2,940 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price is 2,080 yuan [10]. - 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports: The price is 797 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder: The price is 783 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,122 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%, the highest price is 3,142 yuan, the lowest is 3,114 yuan, the trading volume is 651,840, and the open interest is 1,505,284 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,270 yuan, with a decline of 0.52%, the highest price is 3,292 yuan, the lowest is 3,262 yuan, the trading volume is 364,579, and the open interest is 1,267,557 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 789.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.57%, the highest price is 795.5 yuan, the lowest is 784.5 yuan, the trading volume is 245,856, and the open interest is 593,347 [14]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore in 45 ports), and steel mill production situations (such as blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) from 2021 - 2025 [16][21][29] 后市研判 (Future Outlook) - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons, and demand is weak. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, with the inventory decline expanding. The weekly output increased by 1.63 tons, and demand is okay but its resilience is questionable. The upward driving force is expected to be weak, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, with attention on steel mill production [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is continuously weakening, with port inventories rising. Supply remains high, and demand is weakening. The ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar supply has dropped to a low level but its sustainability is questionable, while demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals continue to operate weakly, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated to a limited extent. Prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of multiple and short factors, hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was relatively strong with a daily increase of 1.25%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, short - term bullish factors remain, supporting iron ore prices at a relatively high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue was 2.00516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Among them, property tax revenue was 47.14 billion yuan, urban land use tax revenue was 23.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5%; land value - added tax revenue was 37.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. The national government - managed fund budget revenue was 402.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The central government - managed fund budget revenue was 39.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; local government - managed fund budget revenue at the provincial level was 363.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. Among them, the income from the transfer of the right to use state - owned land was 291.19 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [7]. - In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were strong, with year - on - year rapid growth. In November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 20% and 20.6% respectively. From January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% respectively. In November 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to November 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In November 2025, the export of new energy vehicles was 300,000, a month - on - month increase of 17.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6 times. From January to November 2025, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 1 time [8]. - As of December 17, 237 steel enterprises have publicly announced their ultra - low emission transformation progress on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association, including Guangxi Guigang Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. [9] Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250 yuan, 3,160 yuan, and 3,299 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,288 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 20 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,170 yuan. The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 783 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.55 yuan, and from Brazil was 22.69 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.25 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 106.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,084 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 593,611 lots, a decrease of 185,104 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,604,729 lots, a decrease of 10,413 lots. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,245 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 286,883 lots, a decrease of 153,927 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,199,948 lots, a decrease of 6,813 lots. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 768.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.25%. The trading volume was 229,787 lots, a decrease of 9,825 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 488,996 lots, an increase of 9,427 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production (including 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation) [14][19][34] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand are continuously weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons month - on - month, and supply has continued to contract and reached a low level, which supports steel prices. However, the profit of short - process steel mills is acceptable, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar is weak. The weekly apparent demand decreased by 138,900 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily trading volume is weakly stable. Both are at the low levels in recent years, and the downstream shows no improvement. Demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, which will put pressure on steel prices. In general, the supply of rebar has dropped to a low level but its sustainability is questionable, while demand is seasonally weakening. The fundamentals continue to operate weakly, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply has continued to contract from a high level, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coil continues to be weak. The weekly apparent demand and high - frequency trading volume are weak. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products continues to rise, which supports demand. However, there are new disturbances in export policies, and there are concerns about external demand. The resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. At present, both the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are weakening, and the industrial contradictions are alleviated to a limited extent. Prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Under the game of multiple and short factors, hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The average daily hot - metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills decreased again last week, both reaching relatively low levels. Moreover, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern for ore is difficult to change, which will continue to put pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, and the shipments of miners have also increased. Both are at the high levels of the year. The overseas ore supply is active, while the domestic mine production is seasonally weak, and the ore supply remains high. In general, short - term bullish factors remain, supporting iron ore prices at a relatively high level. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, iron ore prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore market will maintain a short - term oscillating trend. The iron ore's performance is still stronger than that of finished steel products. The rebar has reached a new low this week, while the iron ore has reached a new high. The rebar's pressure level is 3230 and support level is 3050. The hot - rolled coil's pressure level is 3450 and support level is 3250. The pressure level of the main iron ore contract 2601 is 833 and support level is 750. The trading strategy is short - term operation with stop - loss set [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In August 2025, China's daily crude steel output decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Considering most steel mills are on the verge of profit and loss, the supply expansion in September is limited. There is an obvious structural differentiation on the supply side. In August, pig iron output increased year - on - year while crude steel output decreased. Currently, blast furnace production contributes more, while electric furnace production is in full - scale loss and its contribution declines [17]. - This week, although blast furnaces resumed, steel supply decreased with structural differentiation. Rebar production and inventory both decreased, while hot - rolled coil production and inventory both increased, with hot - rolled coil performing better than rebar. Shanxi's blast furnaces are gradually resuming production, but the expectation of production restrictions in Tangshan is increasing [15][18]. - This week, the molten iron output increased by 0.47 million tons to 241.02 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate is 58.87%, down 1.5% month - on - month. Electric furnace steel is still in full - scale loss, limiting production enthusiasm [22]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 744,400 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.5103 million tons, an increase of 664,000 tons. The number of ships at ports is 102, an increase of 1. From September 8th to 14th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.923 million tons, a decrease of 1.806 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.623 million tons, a decrease of 857,000 tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.45 million tons, a decrease of 750,000 tons month - on - month. From September 8th to 14th, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, an increase of 8.169 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.778 million tons, an increase of 6.482 million tons month - on - month [26]. Demand Side - In August, the investment growth rates of real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all slowed down, and the domestic demand reduction was obvious. During the transition from the off - season to the peak season in September, the demand has increased but is unstable [17]. Important News - In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron output was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel output was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to August, China's crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel output was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [13]. - In August, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 390 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with July; the daily average output was 12.6 million tons. From January to August, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.17 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [13]. - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in August decreased by 0.20% [13]. - On the 16th, there was news that coking and steel enterprises in Tangshan began environmental protection production restrictions. Steel mill blast furnaces were shut down by 40% in terms of equipment, and coking enterprises extended the coking time by 30%. Currently, some enterprises have received production restriction notices, and individual coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is about 75%. Steel mills have received production restriction notices, and the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [13]. - Nine listed steel enterprises are accelerating overseas layout, integrating deeply into the global steel industry supply chain through establishing overseas production bases, obtaining international authoritative certifications, and setting up overseas subsidiaries [14]. - British mining company Cadence Minerals recently announced a $4.6 million prepayment financing agreement for the Amapa Iron Ore Project in Brazil. The funds will be used to restart the Azteca beneficiation plant and process high - grade tailings into iron ore concentrates, laying the foundation for the project's long - term expansion plan of an annual output of 5.5 million tons of direct - reduction (DR - grade) iron ore concentrates [14].