2025.08. 18 本文字数：1506，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 武子晔 进入8月份，青海省、贵州省、内蒙古自治区多地暂停了汽车置换更新补贴。其中，内蒙古自治区内 部分地方政府不仅暂停了汽车置换更新补贴，也暂停实施汽车报废更新政策。 值得注意的是，各地政府暂停实施置换更新政策，并非终止。比如，贵州省8月6日发布的公告称， 因平台系统技术升级改造，全省汽车置换更新活动停止执行，具体开放时间另行通知。 更早之前，湖南、河南、安徽等省份内的多个地区暂停了汽车置换更新补贴政策。而重庆、许昌、惠 州、沈阳等多个地区在今年上半年就已按下"暂停键"。 财政部经济建设司副司长吴盖7月25日在2025年上半年财政收支情况新闻发布会上表示，今年，财 政部会同国家发展改革委安排3000亿元超长期特别国债资金支持消费品以旧换新。今年1月和4月， 财政部已分两批累计预拨超长期特别国债资金1620亿元。近期，财政部配合国家发展改革委测算确 定了各地区2025年资金规模，并下达第三批超长期特别国债资金690亿元，剩余资金将在10月份下 达，支持各地做好消费品以旧换新工作。 与"国补"暂停并行的是，多地政府又重启了"国补" ...

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of the "old-for-new" subsidy for cars in various regions is primarily due to a mismatch between the demand for subsidies and the phased funding mechanism, despite strong demand for vehicle replacements. The marginal effectiveness of the policy is diminishing due to factors such as price wars in the automotive market [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Suspension of Subsidies - From mid-May to June 15, multiple regions across the country announced the suspension of applications for the "old-for-new" subsidy due to exhausted funds [2]. - Regions such as Zhengzhou, Luoyang, and others have reported that the suspension is due to the "subsidy funds being used up" [2][8]. Market Reaction - The suspension of the "old-for-new" subsidy has caused unrest in the automotive market, with dealers using the news to encourage consumers to make purchases quickly [3]. - The actual impact of the subsidy policy is more favorable for low-end models, as consumer purchasing power declines and price wars intensify, leading to a decrease in the policy's stimulating effect [4]. Sales Data and Trends - From January to May, automotive sales increased by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, significantly aided by the "old-for-new" policy. However, the suspension of subsidies and ongoing price wars have led to increased consumer hesitation [5][17]. - The overall retail sales of automobiles remained stagnant, with a total automotive consumption value of 1,884.7 billion yuan, showing zero growth year-on-year [17]. Funding Mechanism - The "old-for-new" subsidy is part of a larger funding pool of 3 trillion yuan for various consumer goods, with the distribution of funds being a challenge due to the mismatch between local demand and the phased release of funds [11][12]. - As of June 18, the central government has allocated 1,620 billion yuan of the planned 3 trillion yuan, with the remaining funds to be distributed in the latter half of the year [6][11]. Future Implications - The marginal effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue diminishing, with consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude due to aggressive price cuts in the market [16]. - The automotive market is facing pressure for growth, with expectations for more robust policies to stimulate demand, such as tax reductions and incentives for purchasing vehicles [16][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the suspension of the "old-for-new" subsidy program across various regions in China due to the exhaustion of subsidy funds, leading to increased consumer uncertainty in the automotive market [2][3][4] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has been effective in boosting automotive sales, with a reported 3.5 percentage point increase in year-on-year sales growth from January to May 2023, but a 1.9% decline in retail sales in May due to the suspension of subsidies and ongoing price wars [3][8] - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old-for-new" program, with 162 billion yuan already distributed to local governments, indicating a structured approach to funding [5][6] Group 2 - The suspension of subsidies is attributed to a mismatch between the distribution of funds and local demand, with regions experiencing high demand for subsidies facing insufficient allocations [5][6] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy is set to continue until December 31, 2025, with specific subsidy amounts for different vehicle categories, including 20,000 yuan for scrapping new energy vehicles [4][6] - The automotive market is experiencing a shift towards lower-end models, with significant sales increases in A00 and A0 class vehicles, while higher-end vehicle sales are declining, reflecting a change in consumer purchasing behavior [9][10] Group 3 - The overall impact of the "old-for-new" policy on high-end vehicle sales has been limited, with average vehicle prices decreasing by 7,000 yuan compared to 2024, indicating a trend towards more affordable models [10] - Industry experts express concerns that the focus on low-end vehicles due to subsidy policies may disrupt market dynamics and hinder innovation in higher-end products [10][11] - The automotive industry is facing challenges with stagnant revenue despite increased sales volumes, as the shift towards lower-priced vehicles has resulted in zero growth in automotive consumption value [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in subsidy policy for heavy - duty trucks can significantly boost the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in the following year [3][16]. - In 2025, the new policy expands the replacement scope of natural gas heavy - duty trucks and "National IV" standard heavy - duty trucks, which is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, increasing the sales volume from 900,000 units in 2024 to 1,000,000 units, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62]. - Currently, the large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the inclusion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the 2025 trade - in subsidy policy, is expected to drive the continuous increase in the sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks [3][47][61]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - The automobile industry is crucial to the economy, including promoting GDP growth, activating the consumer market, and attracting investment. When automobile sales are sluggish, the state will introduce stimulus policies such as trade - in subsidies [9]. - Since 2000, China's automobile sales have gone through stages of high - speed development, adjustment, and stable development. When sales are sluggish, the state has introduced purchase tax exemption policies and, more recently, trade - in subsidy policies [10][12][13]. 2. Review of China's Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policy - In 2009, two policies were issued. The subsidy amount was initially 0.3 - 0.6 million yuan per vehicle and later increased to 0.5 - 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy significantly increased the heavy - duty truck sales growth rate in 2010 from 2.27% in 2009 to 37.7% [14][60]. - In 2015, a policy targeted at semi - trailers and heavy - duty trucks was introduced, with a subsidy of 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy led to significant growth in heavy - duty truck sales from 2016 - 2017, with year - on - year growth rates of 29.51% and 56.12% respectively [15][61]. - From 2019 to the present, many cities have introduced trade - in subsidy policies for operating trucks, and despite the economic downturn, the total annual sales of heavy - duty trucks in China have remained on an upward trend [25][26]. 3. Frequent Introduction of Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policies in the Past Two Years - In 2024, multiple trade - in subsidy policies were introduced, but the heavy - duty truck sales did not recover, mainly due to weak real estate demand and low "National III" vehicle ownership, low upgrade willingness, and vehicle condition and procedure issues [36][44]. - In 2025, the new policy has three changes: expanding the subsidy scope to include natural gas heavy - duty trucks, allowing new - purchase subsidies for trucks with less than 1 - year pre - retirement, and adding "National IV" trucks to the retirement scope [45][46]. - The sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks has been increasing, and the current large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the 2025 policy, is expected to drive further growth [47]. 4. Conclusion - The trade - in subsidy policies in 2009 and 2015 effectively boosted the sales of heavy - duty trucks in the following years [60][61]. - The current subsidy policy is similar to that in 2015. It is expected to drive the recovery of heavy - duty truck sales in 2025 and 2026, but the growth rate will be much lower due to real estate demand constraints [62]. - The new policy in 2025 is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62].