点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【固收】信用债成交活跃度有所上升，信用利差整体呈现走阔态势——信用债月度观察（2025.12） 截至2025年12月末，我国存量信用债余额为31.29万亿元。2025年12月1日-12月31日，信用债共发行10892.32亿 元，月环比下降17.19%；总偿还额9125.63亿元，净融资1766.69亿元。 （张旭/秦方好） 2026-01-04 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【银行】公募销售新规落地，理财配置如何演变？——《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》点评 2025年12月31日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》，主要涉及合理调降认申购费率、 简化赎回费 ...

他表示，在海外市场方面，欧美在AI(人工智能)资本开支驱动下已经呈现"投资强于消费"、大小企业盈 利分化、就业下降和薪资增速放缓的特征，这些特征又为降息周期的持续提供了基础。同时，美国财政 宽松在"大美丽法案"出台后几成定局，财政扩张有望点燃全球大宗商品补库周期。 新兴市场凭借"人口红利+关键矿产"双重优势，在降息周期中吸引FDI(外商直接投资)回流，工业化与城 镇化提速。中国电网设备、储能、锂电、光伏、工程机械、商用车等出口链将直接受益，中间品与资本 品订单弹性最大。 国金证券首席策略分析师牟一凌预计，2026年A股非金融地产行业的ROE(净资产收益率)将由当前的 7.2%抬升至7.9%，盈利节奏前低后高，市场脱离"低回报"区间。他建议，沿四条主线布局——工业资 源品、设备出口、消费回补、非银金融，并重点跟踪电力系统建设对铝、铜、钢、煤炭等需求的兑现。 在国内消费端，房价对居民支出的拖累已钝化，贸易结汇率回升、入境免签带动外国游客增加，航空、 酒店、免税、食品饮料等行业销售净利率改善，但是相对估值仍低于2022年低点。资金面上，居民储蓄 向"固收+"迁移，养老金、保险资金持续增配权益；政策下调保险风险因子并 ...

"每炼1吨钢可以减少1.6吨碳排放" 源头降碳效应明显 我国绿色制造体系也更加完善。截至目前，国家层面已经累计培育6430家绿色工厂、491家绿色工业园 区、727家绿色供应链，推广超4万种绿色产品。 资料显示，其中，绿色工厂产值占制造业总产值比重从2020年的9%提高到20%，绿色工业园区单位工 业增加值能耗、水耗仅为全国平均水平的2/3和1/4，固废平均处置利用率超过95%，带动区域绿色转型 作用持续显现。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：徐世明 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新网北京12月12日电(记者 吴涛)"每炼1吨钢可以减少1.6吨碳排放，仅废钢利用就带动减排二氧化碳 约4.2亿吨，充分释放源头降碳效应。" 在工信部12日举行的"用好绿色金融政策支持绿色工厂建设"新闻发布会上，工业和信息化部节能与综合 利用司司长王鹏表示，我国绿色原料燃料应用更加广泛。2024年，我国废钢、废铜铝等10种再生资源利 用量超4亿吨。电解铝行业可再生能源使用比重提前完成25%的规划目标，246个国家绿色数据中心绿电 利用率超过50%。 我国绿色能源装备产业优势也更加凸显。王鹏表示 ...

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Demand recovery appears to be stronger, supported by the easing of short-term supply disruptions, which positively impacted exports, rising to 5.9% in November after a decline in October [1][13] - The increase in working days in November contributed to the export rebound, as the "production rush" effect from previous months diminished [1][13] Group 3 - Domestic demand highlights include improvements in investment and service consumption, with the easing of debt repayment pressures potentially benefiting investment [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to remain high due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite some pressure from the decline in "trade-in" programs [2][22] Group 4 - Challenges remain, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where companies are accelerating debt repayments, which may further constrain investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with expectations of further declines in real estate investment and sales in November [3][42] Group 5 - Inflation indicators showed improvement, with the CPI expected to rise to 0.7% in November, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is projected to slightly decline to -2.2% in November, reflecting the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policies on price recovery in the downstream sectors [4][69] Group 6 - Overall, November's economic indicators suggest improvements in both quantity and price, with actual GDP growth estimated at 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth [4][78] - The demand-side improvements are more pronounced, with short-term factors positively impacting exports and easing investment pressures from debt repayment [4][78]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][8][71] - Food prices rose, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant increases of 21.8% and 2.7% respectively, while pork prices remained low at -15% year-on-year [2][8][71] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][8][72] PPI Analysis - The PPI in November recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [7][45] - Factors influencing PPI include rising coal prices due to anti-involution policies, which increased by 9.5% month-on-month, contributing 0.3% to the PPI [3][35][73] - However, the decline in steel and oil prices negatively impacted the PPI, leading to an overall weak performance in downstream prices [3][35][73] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% in November, with weak demand for travel and further declines in rental prices [3][25][62] - The core service CPI decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, primarily due to reduced travel demand post-holiday, affecting hotel and flight prices [3][25][62] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from reduced government subsidies and rising youth unemployment may limit the extent of this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The November CPI rebound was significantly driven by food items, with food CPI rising by 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% year-on-year [5][50][74] - Non-food CPI categories such as household appliances and communication tools experienced declines, with respective decreases of -0.1% and -1.9% [5][55][74] - Overall service CPI showed a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62][74]

Inflation Data Overview - November CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, meeting expectations[1] - November PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the previous month's -2.1% and expectations of -2%[1] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by structural factors, including a low base effect and reduced supply in certain food categories, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw increases of 21.8% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Pork prices, significantly affected by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a year-on-year CPI of -15%[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year[3] - Excluding gold, core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, indicating weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions[3] PPI Dynamics - PPI showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, with coal prices rising by 9.5% month-on-month due to anti-involution effects, contributing 0.3% to PPI[4] - However, lower prices in steel and oil negatively impacted PPI, leading to a net decrease of 0.2%[4] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may continue to rise, but the impact on downstream prices from anti-involution trends is expected to be gradual, with PPI projected to stabilize at -2.1% in December and recover slowly in 2026[5] - CPI is anticipated to see a mild recovery, supported by rising PPI and pork prices, but constrained by slowing gold price increases and subsidy reductions, with a year-end CPI forecast of around 0.6%[5]

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Domestic demand highlights are seen in investment and service consumption, with the negative impact of debt reduction on investment potentially easing [2][22] - Investment indicators showed a general performance in November, despite a year-on-year decline of approximately 16% in construction and installation investment in October [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite pressures from the decline in trade-in programs [2][22] Group 3 - Economic growth pressure remains focused on the manufacturing sector, primarily due to companies accelerating debt repayments, which further constrains investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with November seeing further declines in real estate investment and commodity housing sales [3][42] - The sales area of commodity housing in November fell by 33.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate market [3][42] Group 4 - Inflation indicators showed improvement in November, with CPI rising to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is expected to remain stable, with upstream commodity prices continuing to support it, although the recovery in mid- and downstream prices is slower [4][51] - The overall economic growth in November is projected to be around 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth despite challenges [4][78]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][71] - Food prices showed a significant increase, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 21.8% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively [2][71] - The pork price, heavily impacted by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a year-on-year CPI of -15% [2][71] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][72] - Excluding gold jewelry, the remaining core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, attributed to weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions [2][72] Service CPI Trends - The overall service CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7%, with a notable decline in housing rent CPI due to weak rental demand among youth [3][25][62] - The core service CPI also showed a decline, with significant drops in prices for hotel accommodations and air tickets following the holiday season [3][25][62] PPI Overview - The PPI in November recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, influenced by rising coal prices due to anti-involution trends, which increased by 9.5% [3][73] - However, the overall PPI remains under pressure from weak midstream and downstream prices, which do not fully reflect upstream price increases [3][73] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may be slow, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from subsidy reductions and rising youth unemployment may limit this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The CPI in November showed a significant contribution from food items, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% [5][50] - Non-food CPI categories, such as household appliances and communication tools, experienced declines [5][55] - The overall service CPI saw a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62]

Inflation Data Overview - November CPI increased to 0.7% YoY, up from 0.2% in the previous month, and in line with expectations, while MoM decreased by 0.1%[1][7] - PPI fell to -2.2% YoY, slightly worse than the previous month's -2.1% and worse than the expected -2%, with a MoM increase of 0.1%[1][7] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by structural factors, with food prices contributing significantly; food CPI rose 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% YoY[2][8] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw YoY CPI increases of 21.8% and 2.7%, respectively, reaching 14.5% and 0.7%[2][8] - Pork prices, heavily influenced by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a YoY CPI of -15%[2][8] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% YoY[3][16] - Excluding gold, core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, indicating weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions[3][16] PPI Dynamics - PPI was influenced by rising coal prices (up 9.5% MoM) and copper prices, contributing positively to PPI, while steel and oil prices declined, negatively impacting PPI[4][25] - The overall PPI was constrained by weak downstream price transmission, with a MoM increase of 0.1%[4][25] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may rise further, but the impact on downstream prices is expected to be gradual, with PPI projected to stabilize at -2.1% in December and recover slowly in 2026[4][26] - CPI is anticipated to see moderate recovery, supported by rising PPI and pork prices, but constrained by slowing gold price increases and subsidy reductions[4][29]

Economic Highlights - In November, manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in production despite high inventory constraints[1] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% for November, supported by accelerated inventory destocking[1] - Exports rebounded to 5.9% in November after a decline to -1.1% in October, driven by an increase in working days and reduced production overhang effects[1] Investment and Consumption Insights - Investment pressures are alleviating as the impact of debt reduction on investment is improving, with construction investment remaining at -16% in October[2] - Service consumption is expected to maintain high levels due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite a decline in "trade-in" programs[2] - The proportion of special refinancing bonds has decreased to around 20%, indicating a potential improvement in investment dynamics[2] Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing investment remains under pressure due to companies prioritizing debt repayment over new investments, with accounts receivable growth dropping to 5.2% in October[2] - Real estate investment and sales are projected to decline further, with November seeing a 33.1% year-on-year drop in commodity housing sales[2] - The "anti-involution" policy's slow progress in the manufacturing sector is keeping cost rates at historically high levels, impacting profitability[2] Inflation and Price Trends - November's CPI is expected to rise to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables (10.1%) and gold[3] - PPI is anticipated to recover slightly to around -2% due to ongoing price pressures from upstream commodities like coal and copper, despite weak downstream price recovery[3] - Core CPI is likely to show limited improvement, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the downstream sector[3]