Market Performance - On July 28, the New York stock market opened higher but showed mixed results by the close, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 64.36 points, closing at 44,837.56 points, a decrease of 0.14% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.13 points, closing at 6,389.77 points, an increase of 0.02% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index increased by 70.27 points, closing at 21,178.58 points, a rise of 0.33% [1] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 8 sectors declined while 3 sectors gained, with the real estate and materials sectors leading the declines [1] Trade Agreements - A new trade agreement was announced between the U.S. and the EU, which includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. and a 50% tariff on EU-produced steel, aluminum, and copper [1][2] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump's second term, building on over $100 billion in annual investments [2] Market Sentiment and Challenges - Market volatility has decreased to its lowest level since February, but investors face challenges such as complacency and the urgency to chase market gains [2] - Recent positive trade news has been largely ignored by investors, with potential market fluctuations expected from corporate earnings reports and U.S.-China trade negotiations [2] - Following recent gains and new highs, a market correction or consolidation may be necessary before further increases [2] Upcoming Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decisions, and the U.S. will release July non-farm payroll data, along with earnings reports from major tech companies [3]

Group 1 - International oil prices increased significantly, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, a 2.38% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, a 2.34% increase [1] - The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement that imposes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., while steel, aluminum, and copper products from the EU will continue to face a 50% tariff [2] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump's second term, with expectations to purchase $750 billion in energy products from the U.S. by 2028 [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the U.S.-EU trade agreement removes a layer of uncertainty, shifting focus back to fundamental market conditions [2] - The OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries emphasized the importance of adhering to production policies and submitting updated compensation reduction plans by August 15 for those not fully compliant [2]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and EU includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, while steel, aluminum, and copper from the EU will continue to face a 50% tariff [1] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the US during Trump's second term, building on over $100 billion in annual investments [1] - By 2028, the EU is expected to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US [1] Group 2 - The US and EU have agreed to implement zero tariffs on strategic products such as aircraft and parts, certain chemicals, generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, natural resources, and critical raw materials [2] - There will be efforts to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs and introduce a quota system to lower bilateral trade barriers [2] - The agreement aims to strengthen economic security alliances to enhance supply chain resilience and innovation, with the EU agreeing to purchase significant amounts of US military equipment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the ongoing discussions between the EU and the US regarding trade relations, with a potential agreement on tariff reductions being a focal point [1][4][5] - Trump stated that the likelihood of reaching a trade agreement with the EU is around 50%, which caused a temporary drop in the euro against the dollar [1][5] - EU officials expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement, potentially involving a 15% tariff rate, similar to a recent agreement with Japan [5][6] Group 2 - A face-to-face meeting is scheduled for July 27 in Scotland to further discuss trade cooperation and related disputes between the EU and the US [5][6] - Trump has previously announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, with additional tariffs on specific industries, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts [5][6] - The EU is seeking to establish lower tariff quotas for certain steel and aluminum products and hopes for exemptions in specific sectors [6] Group 3 - Trump indicated that most trade agreements are expected to be finalized before August, with plans to issue around 200 tariff letters to other trading partners [7] - He downplayed the possibility of the UK negotiating a deal by removing its digital services tax in exchange for lower US tariffs on steel and aluminum [7] - Australia has recently lifted restrictions on US beef imports, which Trump praised as a positive step in trade negotiations [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that increasing defense spending and its impact on metal demand are gaining more attention as the world becomes more multipolar, with NATO committing to allocate 5% of GDP for defense [1] - Defense metal demand is expected to grow structurally, driven by NATO's upgraded spending targets, with NATO countries (excluding the US) projected to spend $507 billion on core defense in 2024, potentially increasing by an additional $371 billion if they reach the 3.5% GDP target [2] - Germany's defense budget is set to rise from €62.4 billion in 2024 to €154 billion in 2029, with 40% allocated for equipment procurement, which will significantly boost metal demand [2] Group 2 - The reconstruction of Ukraine is identified as a "second battlefield" for metal demand, with direct damages estimated at $170 billion and total reconstruction costs ranging from $543 billion to $1.23 trillion [4] - Using two methods to estimate metal demand, it is projected that if reconstruction takes 10 years, annual copper demand could increase by 200,000 tons (0.65% of global share), aluminum by 750,000 tons (1.1%), and steel by 1.76 million tons (1%) [6] - If reconstruction extends to 14 years with a $1 trillion cap, copper demand could reach 1.8 million tons (6.8% annual market), aluminum 720,000 tons (1%), and steel 1.6 million tons (1.8%), which could tighten an already constrained market given the global copper production growth rate of only 2% [6] Group 3 - The combination of defense modernization and post-war reconstruction is expected to drive up metal demand, with steepening demand curves for copper, aluminum, and steel, while strategic metals like rare earths, gallium, and germanium may become bottlenecks [7] - Factors such as spending efficiency, technological advancements (lightweight, intelligent, unmanned systems), and geopolitical dynamics will ultimately determine the intensity of metal consumption [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the steel industry is experiencing manageable inventory pressure, indicating limited supply-demand conflicts. The recovery in raw material prices provides support for prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment boosts market confidence, leading to expectations of a strong fluctuation in steel prices in the short term [3][16]. - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but U.S. tariff policies increase trade uncertainty, which may put pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - The aluminum market faces macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory supports prices. However, weak downstream demand during the off-season is expected to lead to price fluctuations [3][46]. - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - The lithium market is under pressure from potential oversupply, despite the "anti-involution" sentiment providing some support for prices [3][52]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is facing limited supply-demand conflicts, with inventory pressure being manageable. The raw material price recovery is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment is boosting market confidence, leading to expectations of strong fluctuations in steel prices [3][16]. - As of July 11, the total steel inventory was 13.33 million tons, down 0.03% from the previous week and down 23.26% year-on-year [25]. - The average price index for steel on July 11 was 3,428.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices. However, the U.S. tariff policy adds trade uncertainty, potentially putting pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - On July 11, the LME copper price was 9,600 USD/ton, down 3.34% from the previous week [44]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing price support. The report anticipates price fluctuations due to weak downstream demand during the off-season [3][46]. - On July 11, the LME aluminum price was 2,600 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [47]. Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - On July 11, the COMEX gold price was 3,370.30 USD/ounce, showing a 1.03% increase from the previous week [49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that rare earth prices are currently at a cyclical low, with domestic policies promoting supply optimization. The demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors provides new momentum for the industry [4][63]. - On July 11, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium was 456,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [63].

2025.07. 14 本文字数：394，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普称，美国上月通过关税政策获得250亿美元收入， 主要来自汽车、铝、钢和木材等商品，并强调"这仅仅是个开始"。特朗普还称美国关税收入将在未 来一个月内达到"强劲水平"。 不少网友对此评论称， "美国人民真的能看到这笔钱吗""支付这些关税的是美国人民" 。 微信编辑 | 夏木 推荐阅读 Labubu韩国门店大排长龙，警察出动维护秩序！泡泡玛特决定：中止韩国线下销售 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对 象征收高额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%的"基准关税"。 7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。他还宣布，从 8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 ...

Group 1 - The trend of transferring technology and production capacity from Chinese steel mills to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is expected to continue, leveraging local resources and tariff advantages [1][6] - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., significantly lower than the previously announced 46% tariff [1] - Vietnam is projected to become the largest export destination for Chinese steel in 2024, accounting for 11.5% of total steel exports [2][3] Group 2 - In 2024, China's steel exports are expected to reach 110.72 million tons, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2] - The export volume to Vietnam has shown a significant decline in early 2025, with a 25.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [4][5] - The steel trade friction between China and countries like Vietnam and South Korea is increasing, with Vietnam imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products [3][4] Group 3 - The ASEAN region is experiencing strong demand for steel, particularly driven by Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore, with total demand expected to reach approximately 80 million tons by 2025 [5][6] - Chinese steel companies are accelerating overseas investments, with notable projects in Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, indicating a strategic shift towards international production [6] - The Chinese steel industry is advised to maintain a balanced export strategy that meets domestic needs while also catering to international market demands [7]

新华财经北京6月5日电美国白宫宣布从4日起将进口自除英国外所有贸易伙伴的钢铝产品关税从目前的 25%上调至50%。 根据美国国际贸易委员会数据，美国在2024年进口价值1473亿美元的钢铝产品。美国进口钢铁的主要来 源地包括加拿大、墨西哥、巴西等，进口铝的主要来源地是加拿大等。 多国行业人士和学者认为，此举将推高美国从汽车到罐装食品等一系列商品价格，对美国企业和消费者 造成冲击，并加剧全球经贸环境不确定性，为世界经济增长前景蒙上阴影。 加拿大："非法且不合理" 加拿大总理办公室3日晚发表声明说，美方加倍征收钢铝关税"非法且不合理"。加拿大新政府正与美方 进行谈判，争取取消这些关税和其他关税。 加拿大钢铝业界强烈反对美方行为。加拿大钢铁生产商协会表示，提高关税将"对整个供应链造成大规 模破坏和负面影响"。 加拿大劳工大会主席贝娅·布鲁斯克表示，美国政府的这一计划是对加拿大工人的又一次直接攻击，其 鲁莽的举动将对加拿大经济造成冲击。布鲁斯克说："特朗普这一决定将使我们完全远离美国市场，给 加拿大的钢铁和铝产业带来毁灭性危机，并威胁到成千上万加拿大工人的工作。"布鲁斯克呼吁加拿大 政府立即采取行动保护工人，包括实施 ...

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum lack justification and legal basis, negatively impacting both American workers and industries as well as Canadian industries [1] Group 1 - Canada is the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S. [1] - Carney indicated that Canada will respond to the tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1]