据财经网报道，格力电器进一步表态，为满足家用空调十年免费包修的服务标准，公司暂无"铝代铜"相 关计划；若未来相关研究能完全满足格力的质量和技术标准要求并正式应用，将予以明确标注，保障消 费者的知情权与选择权。 此次回应是格力对行业近期相关动态的公开回应，也与2026年家电补贴政策的落地形成呼应，在成本与 消费端需求之间给出了明确的品牌态度。 【#格力承诺家用空调不涨价# ，明确暂无"铝代铜"计划】 据格隆汇今日报道，针对近期市场关注的空调涨价、"铝代铜"计划等问题，格力电器发布回应称，公司 响应2026年家电国家补贴政策，让利消费者，并承诺格力家用空调不涨价。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 节前情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.48%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而需求表现偏弱，基本面季节性走弱，淡季钢价承 压运行，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关 注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.52%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷需求表现良好，带来供需格局好转，给予价格支撑，但需求韧 性存疑，且库存水平偏高，上行驱动预计不强 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [5][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 363.06 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 37.88 billion, up 19.5% year-over-year [9]. - The company’s Q3 revenue was RMB 1119.3 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 10.1%, and a net profit of RMB 11.87 billion, reflecting a 9.0% increase year-over-year [9]. - The report highlights that the tightening of subsidies has impacted Q3 growth, with some regions pausing national subsidies, which may affect future sales growth [9]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance in its home appliance segment, benefiting from domestic subsidy policies and expanding its overseas market [9]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 44.46 billion, RMB 48.02 billion, and RMB 52.17 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 15.4%, 8.0%, and 8.6% [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 was 26.7%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year. However, the financial expense ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 5.79, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.99 for H shares [8][9]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is expected to be RMB 3.47 in 2025, with a dividend yield of 4.67% [8].

Core Viewpoint - Supor's 2025 semi-annual performance report shows a slight increase in revenue but a minor decrease in net profit, reflecting the challenges in the small home appliance market and the impact of new subsidy policies on consumer demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Supor reported an operating income of approximately 11.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.68% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 940 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.07% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.18 yuan, down 0.08% [1]. - From 2020 to 2024, Supor's operating income fluctuated, with figures of 18.597 billion yuan, 21.585 billion yuan, 20.171 billion yuan, 21.304 billion yuan, and 22.427 billion yuan, showing year-on-year changes of -6.33%, 16.07%, -6.55%, 5.62%, and 5.27% respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - Since 2022, the small home appliance market has faced significant challenges due to declining consumer purchasing power, but signs of recovery have emerged in 2023 as the economy rebounds [2]. - The expansion of national subsidy policies in 2025 to include kitchen appliances like rice cookers and microwaves is expected to benefit leading small appliance companies [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 2.1% year-on-year increase in the overall home appliance market (excluding 3C), with kitchen small appliances achieving a retail revenue of 16.2 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Product Pricing and Sales - In May 2023, the average prices of various kitchen small appliances increased significantly, with rice cookers up 20.74% and steamers up 37.42% year-on-year [3]. - Supor's domestic sales remained stable due to continuous innovation and strong channel advantages, while export orders also saw growth [3]. - The slight decline in net profit was attributed to the impact of export business and lower investment income due to declining interest rates, prompting the company to enhance resource allocation in core categories and optimize product structure [3]. Group 4: Financial Position - Supor reported a decrease in total assets and equity attributable to shareholders by 12.37% and 20.33% respectively, primarily due to the implementation of the 2024 profit distribution plan [4].

Group 1 - The air conditioning market in Northeast China is experiencing explosive growth due to high temperatures and government subsidy policies, with order volumes in Heilongjiang province increasing over 300% compared to the same period last year [1] - On July 4, there was a significant surge in orders, with a 400% increase year-on-year, reaching a historical peak [1] - Xiaomi's air conditioning sales have reportedly surged to 20 times that of the same period last year, prompting the company to mobilize installation engineers from across the country to meet demand [1] Group 2 - JD Logistics has implemented measures to ensure supply, including reallocating air conditioning products from various cities and increasing the efficiency of vehicle turnover at their Harbin warehouse [1] - The company has added two specialized unloading teams and over 200 support personnel to enhance warehouse operations and has established a 24-hour operation schedule [1] - In response to high demand, JD Logistics has increased its engineering staff by nearly 40% to ensure efficient delivery and installation of air conditioning units [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][14]. Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing robust growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies and strong demand for air conditioners and robotic vacuum cleaners, with retail sales growth exceeding 15% in Q2 2025 [2][18]. - Domestic sales of major home appliances showed solid growth in May 2025, while exports faced some pressure, particularly in categories like air conditioners and refrigerators [3][35]. - The U.S. home appliance retail market remains stable despite tariff impacts, with a slight increase in inventory levels [4][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic sales of air conditioners, range hoods, gas stoves, and robotic vacuum cleaners saw significant growth, with online and offline retail sales of air conditioners increasing by 23.0% and 15.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][18]. - The overall retail demand for home appliances is strong, with various categories showing positive growth trends [2][18]. 2. Domestic and Export Sales - In May 2025, domestic sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased by 13.4%, 13.7%, and 15.2% year-on-year, respectively, while exports faced challenges with declines in several categories [3][35]. - The report anticipates that the export of home appliances will continue to face short-term declines, but the long-term growth potential remains strong due to competitive advantages in technology and supply chains [3][35]. 3. U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. home appliance retail sector showed a year-on-year decline of 1.2% in May 2025, with cumulative declines of 1.9% for the year [4][41]. - Inventory levels in U.S. electronic and appliance stores have slightly increased, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains low, indicating a stable market environment [4][41]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Boss Electric in the kitchen appliances sector [5][6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies for home appliances and foreign exchange gains [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 128.43 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.42 billion yuan, up 38.0% year-over-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit was 12.75 billion yuan, also reflecting a 38.0% year-over-year increase [1] Business Segments - Smart home business revenue grew by 17.4% year-over-year, benefiting from the national appliance replacement policy and strong overseas sales [1] - Revenue from commercial and industrial solutions increased by 25.3% year-over-year, with new energy and industrial technology revenue rising by 45% [1] - The company completed acquisitions of Arbonia's climate division and Toshiba Elevator's China operations during Q1 [1] - Robotics and automation revenue grew by 9% year-over-year, with KUKA's orders in China increasing by over 35% [1] Cost Structure and Profitability - Gross margin decreased by approximately 1 percentage point year-over-year due to changes in sales structure [2] - Financial expense ratio decreased by 2.7 percentage points, primarily due to increased foreign exchange gains, impacting financial income by about 2.8 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company expects continued benefits from home appliance subsidies in China and rapid growth in overseas markets [2] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 44.46 billion yuan, 48.02 billion yuan, and 52.17 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 15.4%, 8.0%, and 8.6% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 5.8 yuan, 6.3 yuan, and 6.8 yuan for the same period [2] - The company maintains a reasonable valuation with H-share P/E ratios of 12X, 11X, and 10X for 2025-2027 [2] - The dividend yield exceeds 4%, enhancing the company's attractiveness [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [6][14]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing an upward trend in profitability and revenue growth, driven by government subsidies and strong export performance. The total revenue for 43 listed home appliance companies is projected to reach 1,253.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [13][15]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline by 1.6 percentage points to 27.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 111.1 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year [15][30]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant revenue increase of 14.9% compared to the previous year, marking the highest quarterly growth since 2022 [23][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Appliance Industry Overview - The home appliance sector is witnessing a recovery in domestic sales, supported by government subsidy policies, with a projected revenue growth of 9.0% in domestic sales and 15.4% in exports for 2024 [15][30]. - The overall profitability of the industry is improving, with net profit margins increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 8.9% in 2024 [15][30]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis 2.1 White Goods - White goods companies are expected to achieve a revenue of 1,044.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. The net profit margin is projected to increase by 0.6 percentage points to 9.1% [32][41]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue increase of 16.1% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in both domestic and export markets [33][41]. 2.2 Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is facing challenges, with a projected revenue decline of 3.7% to 28.3 billion yuan in 2024. The net profit margin is expected to decrease by 2.7 percentage points to 10.3% [42][58]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a further revenue decline of 7.2% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of the real estate market [42][58]. 2.3 Small Appliances - Small appliances are projected to achieve a revenue of 123.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 7.3%. However, the net profit margin is expected to decrease by 0.9 percentage points to 7.7% [60][65]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue increase of 12.2% year-on-year, driven by strong export performance [60][65]. 2.4 Lighting and Components - The lighting and components sector is expected to see a revenue growth of 6.2% to 58 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase in net profit margin to 5.7% [3][27]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue increase of 8.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in this segment [3][27]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and TCL for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Bear Electric, New Treasure, and Roborock for small appliances [4][5].

铁子们我回北京了，苏州北京来回都是4小时高铁，方便的。 昨天有人说我老婆录的演唱会视频音效很好，室内馆就是这样的，而且是馆子越小听的效果就越好。就像美味菜肴都是 小而精做出来的，大锅菜你就别指望能吃上好的。 5月底在昆山有张韶涵的演唱会，我本来有兴趣的，但老婆查了信息说是室外场，那我就不看了。那种几万人的体育场视 听效果很不好，经常是歌手唱的音响含糊不清，边上粉丝鬼哭狼嚎听三个小时，遭老罪了。 我说张韶涵现在火，先让她沉淀沉淀，等不火了就会开室内馆了。华语乐坛我唯一可以接受室外场的只有周杰伦，他就 算再沉淀10年20年，只要在内地也都是开室外场，除非去香港或者新加坡看。 这周末官方披露了一季度的结婚人数181万对，同比下跌8%，而且181万这是除了2020年一季度之外的历史最低值，2020 年一季度你们懂的，那个数据不正常，说白了一季度就是刷新史低了。 | | 季度结婚对数(万) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2012年 | 347.00 2019年 | 281.50 | | 2013年 | 428.20 2020年 | 155.70 | | 2014年 | 412.80 2021年 | ...