Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and both are in wide-range oscillations [2]. - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Industry News - On February 19, according to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production increased by 1.22 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.05 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 10.69 million tons. Total inventory of rebar increased by 129.22 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 69.08 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 269.11 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 60.75 million tons, and for hot-rolled coil decreased by 49.46 million tons, with a total decrease of 153.44 million tons [2]. - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 billion tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.15 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 billion tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output; and 21.3 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 billion tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output [4]. - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.71 billion tons, a decrease of 1.42 billion tons (8.8%) from the previous ten-day period, an increase of 0.57 billion tons (4.0%) from the beginning of the year, an increase of 0.57 billion tons (4.0%) from the same ten-day period of the previous month, a decrease of 0.64 billion tons (4.2%) from the same ten-day period of last year, and an increase of 2.51 billion tons (20.6%) from the same ten-day period of the year before last [4]. - In December, the output of medium and heavy plate mills of key enterprises increased year-on-year, while the output of hot continuous rolling mills and cold continuous rolling mills decreased year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the output of shipbuilding plates, home appliance plates, and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year-on-year, while the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year-on-year. In terms of product prices, except for medium and heavy wide steel strips, which increased month-on-month, the prices of other products decreased [4]. - From January to December, the cumulative output of medium and heavy plate mills and cold continuous rolling mills increased year-on-year, while the cumulative output of hot continuous rolling mills remained flat year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the cumulative output of shipbuilding plates increased significantly year-on-year, while the output of container plates decreased significantly year-on-year [4]. - BHP Billiton announced that its iron ore production in the first half of the year reached a record high, and in the annual contract negotiation with China, the company has accepted a partial reduction in iron ore prices [4]. - According to customs statistics, in December 2025, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons (4.2%); the average price was $1,810.3 per ton, a month-on-month increase of $179.0 (11.0%). From January to December, the cumulative import of steel was 6.059 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 756,000 tons (11.1%) [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,027 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (-0.88%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton (-0.87%). The trading volume of RB2605 was 746,349 lots, with a position of 2,034,509 lots and an increase of 92,067 lots; the trading volume of HC2605 was 373,301 lots, with a position of 1,500,880 lots and an increase of 18,657 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in various regions decreased to varying degrees, while the price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2605 increased by 7 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610 decreased by 5 yuan/ton; the spreads of HC2605 - RB2605, HC2610 - RB2610 increased by 1 yuan/ton; the spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -86 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For螺纹、热卷**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, with low output and demand. Inventory is expected to increase rapidly from a low level, and the market's demand expectation for next year is relatively weak. The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range, showing a downward trend. However, due to the low current valuation, the downside space is limited [2]. - **For铁矿石**: The market is still in the off - season, and the iron - making water production is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses more on the spring consumption demand. The global shipment has rebounded from a low level, but is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price is under pressure to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. 螺纹、热卷** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range and is approaching the previous low, with potential support. But it is considered to be in a downward trend without a reversal signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2]. **II. 铁矿石** - **Demand**: The production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses on spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have rebounded from a low level but are expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is under pressure to decline, and on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, potentially forming a downward effective breakout [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions with a light position [4]. **III. Industry News** - As of the week ending February 11, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of key steel products in China decreased by 429,100 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 266,200 tons, the social inventory increased by 533,100 tons, the total inventory increased by 799,300 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 635,300 tons [6]. - On February 11, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was $89.6 per ton, and all 64,000 tons were sold at a price of $95.1 per ton (ex - tax) [6].

Group 1 - The steel market is expected to experience a slight upward shift in prices by 2026, driven by a balance between supply constraints and recovering demand in manufacturing, despite a continued decline in the real estate sector [1][3] - The global iron ore production is projected to reach 2.65 billion tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%, supported by the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project and expansions by major miners [1] - Domestic scrap steel supply is anticipated to reach approximately 320 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.28%, due to increased vehicle dismantling and relaxed import policies [1] Group 2 - The steel supply side is expected to face strict control measures, with a slight decline in total crude steel production and capacity in 2026, as new capacity additions are prohibited [2] - The demand for steel is projected to show a mixed trend, with a continued decline in real estate construction but a slight increase in demand from infrastructure projects, expected to grow by 1.5% to 2.0% [2] - Manufacturing demand is expected to rise, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors, with the home appliance industry maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [2] Group 3 - Overall, the steel market is likely to see a slight decrease in demand, particularly for construction steel, while the share of steel used in manufacturing is expected to increase [3] - The pressure of oversupply is anticipated to ease slightly compared to 2025, with reduced cost support and a potential recovery in industry profitability, leading to limited government price interventions [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The fundamentals are stable, supply is stable, demand is running smoothly but has a seasonal weakening expectation, inventory is low, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a volatile manner, with a daily increase of 1.61%. Both supply and demand have recovered, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to weak and volatile operation due to tariff disturbances [3]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.37%. The supply - demand pattern has little change, with supply pressure remaining high and demand weak. The futures price is at a large discount, and the ore price will maintain a volatile operation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to April 2025, 5,679 urban old - fashioned residential areas across the country started renovation, with 6 regions having a start - up rate of over 50% [6]. - In April 2025, China's household air - conditioner exports reached 10.679 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and sales reached $2.04 billion. Regional markets showed differentiation [7]. - In May 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production [8]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and related products in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are presented, as well as price differences such as coil - rebar spread and rebar - scrap spread [9]. 3. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase or Decrease (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,974 | 1.57 | 2,066,104 | 2,280,391 | | Hot - rolled Coil | 3,097 | 1.61 | 806,676 | 1,576,113 | | Iron Ore | 704.5 | 1.37 | 461,519 | 716,276 | [12] 4. Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Weekly and total inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are presented [14][15][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron ore powder are shown [19]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: Indicators such as the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills are presented [28]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is slightly reduced but remains high, and demand is stable but will weaken seasonally. With low inventory, steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [35]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Supply has returned to a relatively high level, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. Steel prices are still prone to weak and volatile operation [36]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has little change, with supply pressure high and demand weak. The futures price discount provides some support, and the ore price will maintain a volatile operation [37].