2026 年 2 月 25 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 2 月 19 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹+1.22 万吨，热卷+2.05 万吨，五大品种合计+10.69 万吨； 总库存方面，螺纹+129.22 万吨，热卷+69.08 万吨，五大品种合计+269.11 万吨；表需方面，螺纹-60.75 万吨，热卷-49.46 万吨，合计-153.44 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：表需表现偏弱，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 期货研究 商 品 研 究 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | RB2605 | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） 3,027 | 涨跌 （元/吨） -27 | 涨跌幅 （%） -0.88 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | HC260 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For螺纹、热卷**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, with low output and demand. Inventory is expected to increase rapidly from a low level, and the market's demand expectation for next year is relatively weak. The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range, showing a downward trend. However, due to the low current valuation, the downside space is limited [2]. - **For铁矿石**: The market is still in the off - season, and the iron - making water production is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses more on the spring consumption demand. The global shipment has rebounded from a low level, but is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price is under pressure to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. 螺纹、热卷** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range and is approaching the previous low, with potential support. But it is considered to be in a downward trend without a reversal signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2]. **II. 铁矿石** - **Demand**: The production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses on spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have rebounded from a low level but are expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is under pressure to decline, and on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, potentially forming a downward effective breakout [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions with a light position [4]. **III. Industry News** - As of the week ending February 11, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of key steel products in China decreased by 429,100 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 266,200 tons, the social inventory increased by 533,100 tons, the total inventory increased by 799,300 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 635,300 tons [6]. - On February 11, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was $89.6 per ton, and all 64,000 tons were sold at a price of $95.1 per ton (ex - tax) [6].

站在当下，展望2026年钢铁市场，一方面，供应端继续受到政策方面限制；但另一方面需求端房地产下 滑放缓，制造业等需求继续增加，整体市场供大于求的矛盾料将放缓，钢材价格重心或有望小幅上移。 其理由在于：《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》明确实施产能产量精准调控，严禁新增产 能，修订产能置换办法，在此背景下，预计2026年粗钢总产能、总产量略有下滑，其中电炉炼钢比例继 续增加，品种、区域结构进一步优化，行业集中度进一步增加。 而在需求端，预计房地产、基建和制造业钢铁需求将延续分化局面。其中在房地产方面，保障性住房、 城中村改造等"三大工程"成为稳定因素，但预计2026年房地产市场继续承压，新开工面积继续下滑，用 钢量继续下滑5%左右。 具体来看，从钢铁原料角度来看，预计2026年钢铁原材料端整体略偏宽松。其中铁矿石方面，随着西芒 杜铁矿的投产，三大矿商（淡水河谷、力拓、必和必拓）扩产项目集中释放，2026年全球铁矿产量预计 达26.5亿吨，同比增长0.68%。 废钢铁方面，随着以旧换新的持续实施，汽车拆解量增加（年增12%）和建筑废钢释放，带动国内废钢 资源进一步丰富，叠加进口废钢政策的放宽，预计 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 4 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 煤炭反弹提振，钢矿低位回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价触底回升，录得 1.57%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢基本面表现平稳，供应端变化不大，需求则是平稳运行，但存季 节性走弱预期，继续拖累螺纹基本面，相对利好则是库存低位，现实端 表现尚可，预期现实博弈下预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求 表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.61%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均迎来回升，供应重回年内高位，需求迎来改善但持 续性存疑，基本面并未实质性改善，叠加关税扰动在现，钢价仍易承压 偏弱震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 1.37%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供需格局变化不大，矿石终端消耗高位回落，而港口到货和 海外矿商发运均回升，且财年末存冲量预期，供应压力维持高位，供增 需弱局面铁矿石基本面弱稳运行，矿价仍易承压，相对利好则是期价贴 水较大，下行阻力存在，多空因素博弈下矿价维持震荡运行态势，关注 成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何 ...