中信证券发布研报称，我国钢铁行业全球竞争力强，但盈利能力弱，有望成为本轮"反内卷"指向的重点 行业。近期，工信部印发钢铁行业稳增长工作方案，再次强调了"继续实施产量压减政策"，中信证券预 计9月钢铁行业限产或将加快、加力落地，随着限产执行的深入，行业即将进入以利润为核心的业绩周 期。 《方案》提出，"继续实施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原则落实 年度产量调控任务，促进供需动态平衡"。根据国家统计局数据，今年1-7月我国粗钢产量较去年同比减 少约2000万吨。考虑到当前处于生产旺季，我们预计9月限产将加快加力落地。根据国家统计局数据， 我们假设要完成全年5000万吨的限产目标，则预计从今年8月份开始粗钢产量需要每月维持8.5%的同比 下降幅度。从2015-2016，以及2021年的经验来看，限产均改善了行业的盈利和价格水平。2021年10 月，钢铁行业PPI同比增速一度达到39.9%的高点，行业全年利润总额增长75.5%。 钢铁"减量化"特征下，阶段性出清政策是必要手段。 自2021年开始，随着房地产市场疲软，钢铁需求受到较大影响，开始出现持续性的需求下降压力。当需 求不再增长，内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal and fuel consumption industry [10]. Core Insights - Recent expectations of steel production restrictions have raised concerns about a potential decline in coking coal demand, which could suppress coking coal prices. However, historical data suggests that administrative production restrictions often lead to a rapid recovery in steel mill profits, reducing their willingness to pressure upstream material prices, resulting in a co-resonance price increase for both steel and coking coal. If steel production is reduced due to significant losses, both steel and coking coal prices tend to decline together [2][7]. - Looking ahead to 2025, steel mill profits remain favorable, and the motivation for voluntary production cuts is low. If administrative production cuts occur, there is potential for a co-resonance price increase in coking coal, leading to absolute returns in the equity sector [2][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Tracking - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.81%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points, ranking 30th out of 32 industries. As of August 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 698 CNY/ton, up by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week. The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1610 CNY/ton [6][21]. - The supply of coking coal is tight due to production control measures and stricter safety regulations ahead of military parades, which may support prices in the short term [6][22]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the coal sector has seen a decline of 0.81% in the past week, with the thermal coal index down by 0.93% and the coking coal index down by 0.55% [21][27]. - The report also notes that the coal sector has increased by 4.80% over the past month and by 3.41% over the past year [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and potential for improvement, including: 1. Elastic stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma Energy, and Huaibei Mining. 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. 3. Transition growth: Electric Power Investment [8]. Company Highlights - China Shenhua plans to acquire assets from the State Energy Group and raise funds through a share issuance [70]. - Jizhong Energy reported a 27.87% decline in revenue for the first half of 2025 [71]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy's coal production in July decreased by 9.13% year-on-year [72].

Core Viewpoint - The recent news about a potential 30% production cut in Tangshan's steel industry has stirred the market, but the immediate impact on steel prices and stocks appears to be stabilizing, with a long-term downward trend in steel prices expected [2][6]. Group 1: Production Cuts and Market Impact - Tangshan's steel production cut is expected to reduce iron water capacity by approximately 50,000 tons per day, which may alleviate supply pressure in the region and stabilize the market [5][6]. - The production cut rumors primarily target sintering processes, and companies like Hebei Steel, which have high environmental performance ratings, are expected to be less affected [5][6]. - Despite initial market optimism following the production cut news, steel prices have begun to decline again, with rebar prices averaging 3,182 yuan per ton as of July 8, down 5 yuan from the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Financial Performance - In 2017, Hebei Steel's production was reduced due to environmental restrictions, with iron, crude steel, and steel product outputs decreasing by 6.66%, 7.04%, and 5.31% respectively [3]. - The steel industry saw a significant profit increase in 2021, with major steel enterprises achieving a total profit of 352.4 billion yuan, a 59.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - Hebei Steel's revenue in 2021 was 149.63 billion yuan, a 38.98% increase, while its net profit grew by 58.32% to 2.688 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to face continued pressure in the second half of the year, with average steel prices projected to decline compared to the first half [7][8]. - However, there is a potential for a short-term rebound in steel prices as seasonal demand increases, contingent on production control measures and supply-demand dynamics [8].