丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 钢铁限产，焦煤价格就一定回落吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期钢铁限产预期增强，市场普遍担忧钢铁限产往往会导致焦煤需求回落，从而抑制焦煤价格。 然而历史上来看并非如此：由于钢铁行政性限产往往引发钢厂利润快速修复，因此减弱了钢厂 对上游原材料的压价意愿，最终形成钢焦共振上涨格局，权益端也存在绝对收益；然而若钢铁 因亏损较多而导致自发性减产，则钢焦价格往往共振回落，权益端表现同样较差。展望 2025 年，当前钢厂利润依旧较优，自发性减产动力不足；若后续存行政性减产可能，有望使得钢焦 价格共振上涨，权益端也有望获得绝对收益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent news about a potential 30% production cut in Tangshan's steel industry has stirred the market, but the immediate impact on steel prices and stocks appears to be stabilizing, with a long-term downward trend in steel prices expected [2][6]. Group 1: Production Cuts and Market Impact - Tangshan's steel production cut is expected to reduce iron water capacity by approximately 50,000 tons per day, which may alleviate supply pressure in the region and stabilize the market [5][6]. - The production cut rumors primarily target sintering processes, and companies like Hebei Steel, which have high environmental performance ratings, are expected to be less affected [5][6]. - Despite initial market optimism following the production cut news, steel prices have begun to decline again, with rebar prices averaging 3,182 yuan per ton as of July 8, down 5 yuan from the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Financial Performance - In 2017, Hebei Steel's production was reduced due to environmental restrictions, with iron, crude steel, and steel product outputs decreasing by 6.66%, 7.04%, and 5.31% respectively [3]. - The steel industry saw a significant profit increase in 2021, with major steel enterprises achieving a total profit of 352.4 billion yuan, a 59.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - Hebei Steel's revenue in 2021 was 149.63 billion yuan, a 38.98% increase, while its net profit grew by 58.32% to 2.688 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to face continued pressure in the second half of the year, with average steel prices projected to decline compared to the first half [7][8]. - However, there is a potential for a short-term rebound in steel prices as seasonal demand increases, contingent on production control measures and supply-demand dynamics [8].