Group 1: Rare Metal ETF Performance - The Rare Metal ETF has a turnover rate of 2.43% with a transaction volume of 59.74 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past month at 215 million yuan [2] - The ETF's scale has increased by 220 million yuan this month, also ranking first among comparable funds, with a share growth of 58.05 million shares in the past two weeks [2] - Over the last 10 trading days, the ETF has attracted a total of 51.86 million yuan in inflows, and its net value has risen by 82.60% over the past year [2] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 4 months and an average monthly return of 8.77% [2] Group 2: Cobalt Market Dynamics - Starting from October 16, 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo will implement a cobalt export quota system, aiming to boost cobalt prices by controlling supply [3] - The DRC is projected to account for 76.3% of global cobalt production in 2024, and the quota restrictions are expected to significantly reduce global cobalt supply, leading to an estimated annual shortage of about 30,000 tons in the cobalt market from 2026 to 2027 [3] - The lithium battery sector is expected to generate revenue of 1.14 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.78% and a net profit of 67.95 billion yuan, reflecting a 28.07% increase [3] Group 3: Top Holdings in Rare Metal Index - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Salt Lake Industry, Huayou Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Zhongjin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 57.58% of the index [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has established the position of Chief Design Officer, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, appointed as the first director [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will lead efforts to redesign government forms and processes [2] - The National Design Studio, created under this initiative, will provide recommendations to reduce design costs and standardize government websites, but will close after three years [2] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that a resolution regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees and the possibility of trilateral talks involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine [3][4] - Zelensky mentioned that around 30 countries are considering sending ground troops to support Ukraine, and the U.S. has shown positive signals regarding its involvement in security guarantees [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of $500 million [6] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and high-temperature alloys, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports [6] - Analysts predict that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is expected to impact global supply significantly [6]

Group 1: U.S. Government Initiatives - President Trump signed an executive order to establish the position of Chief Design Officer for the U.S. government, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, expected to be appointed [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will lead efforts to redesign government forms and processes, aiming to reduce design costs and standardize government interaction websites [2] Group 2: U.S.-Ukraine-Russia Relations - Trump indicated that results regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees with Trump's team, aiming to clarify the security framework within 7 to 10 days, ideally before a meeting with Russian President Putin [4] - Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine will not legally recognize Russia's occupation of its territory and discussed the conflict map with Trump, highlighting Crimea as a key issue [5] Group 3: Defense Procurement - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of $500 million [7] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and components for aerospace engines, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports for this resource [7] - Analysts predict that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints, particularly with the Democratic Republic of the Congo's potential export restrictions impacting global supply [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cobalt industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Viewpoints - The cobalt market is expected to enter an upward price cycle from 2025 to 2027, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and increasing demand from the lithium battery sector [11][12]. - The DRC government has implemented temporary export bans and may introduce export quotas, which could significantly reduce cobalt supply and lead to a supply-demand imbalance [11][30]. - The report forecasts that cobalt prices could stabilize at over 350,000 RMB per ton during the 2026-2027 period due to these supply constraints and robust demand growth [5][12]. Supply Summary - The DRC, which accounts for over 75% of global cobalt supply, has announced a temporary export ban that is expected to reduce its cobalt output by approximately 34% in 2025, resulting in a global supply decrease of 22.3% [2][33]. - If the DRC implements export quotas, global cobalt supply is projected to be 266,000 tons and 289,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.1% and 8.7% [33][34]. - The DRC's supply reduction policies are anticipated to lead to a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance, with a projected shortage of 0.7 million tons in 2025 [4][60]. Demand Summary - Global cobalt demand is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 248,000 tons, 283,000 tons, and 329,000 tons for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 14.0%, and 16.3% [55][56]. - The demand for cobalt is primarily driven by the lithium battery sector, particularly the ternary lithium batteries, which are expected to see a recovery in penetration rates in the domestic market [3][38]. - The consumer electronics sector is also anticipated to recover, contributing to stable demand for cobalt [47]. Balance Summary - The report indicates that the supply-demand relationship for cobalt is expected to improve significantly, with a shift from an oversupply of 83,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 7,000 tons in 2025 [4][60]. - Long-term projections suggest that the cobalt market will remain in a tight balance, with shortages of 17,000 tons and 41,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][60]. Price Outlook - Short-term cobalt prices are expected to remain strong, with a likelihood of maintaining high levels until the end of 2025 due to ongoing supply constraints [5][65]. - The long-term price center for cobalt is projected to exceed 350,000 RMB per ton, driven by supply-side policies and sustained demand growth from the battery sector [5][12].