截至9月23日，稀有金属ETF近1年净值上涨82.60%。从收益能力看，截至2025年9月23日，稀有金属ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.02%，最长连涨月 数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为58.56%，上涨月份平均收益率为8.77%。截至2025年9月23日，稀有金属ETF近3个月超越基准年化收益为5.59%。 截至2025年9月24日 10:58，中证稀有金属主题指数上涨0.77%，成分股华友钴业上涨5.07%，有研新材上涨4.33%，东方钽业上涨2.52%，西藏矿业上涨 2.19%，盛新锂能上涨1.60%。稀有金属ETF(562800)上涨0.69%。 流动性方面，稀有金属ETF盘中换手2.43%，成交5974.08万元。拉长时间看，截至9月23日，稀有金属ETF近1月日均成交2.15亿元，排名可比基金第一。 规模方面，稀有金属ETF本月以来规模增长2.20亿元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金第一。份额方面，稀有金属ETF近2周份额增长5805.00万份， 新增份额位居可比基金第一。资金流入方面，拉长时间看，稀有金属ETF近10个交易日内，合计"吸金"5185.84万元。 刚果（金）自2025年10 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has established the position of Chief Design Officer, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, appointed as the first director [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will lead efforts to redesign government forms and processes [2] - The National Design Studio, created under this initiative, will provide recommendations to reduce design costs and standardize government websites, but will close after three years [2] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that a resolution regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees and the possibility of trilateral talks involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine [3][4] - Zelensky mentioned that around 30 countries are considering sending ground troops to support Ukraine, and the U.S. has shown positive signals regarding its involvement in security guarantees [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of $500 million [6] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and high-temperature alloys, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports [6] - Analysts predict that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is expected to impact global supply significantly [6]

Group 1: U.S. Government Initiatives - President Trump signed an executive order to establish the position of Chief Design Officer for the U.S. government, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, expected to be appointed [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will lead efforts to redesign government forms and processes, aiming to reduce design costs and standardize government interaction websites [2] Group 2: U.S.-Ukraine-Russia Relations - Trump indicated that results regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees with Trump's team, aiming to clarify the security framework within 7 to 10 days, ideally before a meeting with Russian President Putin [4] - Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine will not legally recognize Russia's occupation of its territory and discussed the conflict map with Trump, highlighting Crimea as a key issue [5] Group 3: Defense Procurement - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of $500 million [7] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and components for aerospace engines, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports for this resource [7] - Analysts predict that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints, particularly with the Democratic Republic of the Congo's potential export restrictions impacting global supply [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cobalt industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Viewpoints - The cobalt market is expected to enter an upward price cycle from 2025 to 2027, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and increasing demand from the lithium battery sector [11][12]. - The DRC government has implemented temporary export bans and may introduce export quotas, which could significantly reduce cobalt supply and lead to a supply-demand imbalance [11][30]. - The report forecasts that cobalt prices could stabilize at over 350,000 RMB per ton during the 2026-2027 period due to these supply constraints and robust demand growth [5][12]. Supply Summary - The DRC, which accounts for over 75% of global cobalt supply, has announced a temporary export ban that is expected to reduce its cobalt output by approximately 34% in 2025, resulting in a global supply decrease of 22.3% [2][33]. - If the DRC implements export quotas, global cobalt supply is projected to be 266,000 tons and 289,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.1% and 8.7% [33][34]. - The DRC's supply reduction policies are anticipated to lead to a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance, with a projected shortage of 0.7 million tons in 2025 [4][60]. Demand Summary - Global cobalt demand is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 248,000 tons, 283,000 tons, and 329,000 tons for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 14.0%, and 16.3% [55][56]. - The demand for cobalt is primarily driven by the lithium battery sector, particularly the ternary lithium batteries, which are expected to see a recovery in penetration rates in the domestic market [3][38]. - The consumer electronics sector is also anticipated to recover, contributing to stable demand for cobalt [47]. Balance Summary - The report indicates that the supply-demand relationship for cobalt is expected to improve significantly, with a shift from an oversupply of 83,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 7,000 tons in 2025 [4][60]. - Long-term projections suggest that the cobalt market will remain in a tight balance, with shortages of 17,000 tons and 41,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][60]. Price Outlook - Short-term cobalt prices are expected to remain strong, with a likelihood of maintaining high levels until the end of 2025 due to ongoing supply constraints [5][65]. - The long-term price center for cobalt is projected to exceed 350,000 RMB per ton, driven by supply-side policies and sustained demand growth from the battery sector [5][12].