研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 1/ 6 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5668 | -192 | -82 | 276442 | -52657 | 245565 | -12151 | | SM主力合约 | 5892 | -108 | -50 | 275888 | -41199 | 264806 | -19518 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5450 | 0 | 50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5750 | ...

Group 1: Market Information - The closing price of the SF main contract was 5562, down 130 from the previous day and up 52 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 180020 (down 5301) and an open interest of 101052 (up 5956). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5764, down 56 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 208571 (down 5195) and an open interest of 356141 (up 1378) [2]. - For silicon - iron spot, prices in some regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai increased by 30 yuan/ton on November 11th. For silicon - manganese spot, prices in some regions like Ningxia and Guangxi increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2]. - Regarding the basis/spread, for silicon - iron, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract increased by 160. For silicon - manganese, the basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract increased by 56. The SF - SM spread was - 202, down 74 from the previous day and up 42 from the previous week [2]. - For raw materials, Tianjin port manganese ore spot prices increased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree, and the prices of semi - carbonates, Gabon blocks, etc. changed accordingly. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in some regions such as Shaanxi and Ningxia increased [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Core View - The supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is weakening at the margin, but the cost side provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced at low prices [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Reduce previous short positions at low prices as the supply - demand is weakening marginally while the cost side is supportive [5][6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. Important Information - On November 11th, the transaction prices of semi - carbonates, Gabon blocks, and Australian blocks at Tianjin Port were 34.2 - 34.5, 40.2, and 39 - 39.2 yuan/ton degree respectively [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee during the heating season from 2025 - 2026, emphasizing stable energy production and supply, coal production organization, and safety production [7]. Group 3: Cost and Profit - For silicon - iron, the production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu were 5556, 5659, 5663, 5717, and 5765 yuan/ton respectively, all showing losses [16]. - For silicon - manganese, the production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 5805, 5834, 6339, and 6159 yuan/ton respectively, also with losses [19].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Black Metal Research Report" and "Black Metal Daily - Ferroalloy Daily" [1][2] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约: closed at 5766, up 66 for the day and 138 for the week, with a trading volume of 165,669 (down 45,267) and an open interest of 212,449 (down 4,542) [4] - SM主力合约: closed at 5990, up 46 for the day and 136 for the week, with a trading volume of 169,284 (down 50,960) and an open interest of 326,849 (down 8,872) [4] Spot - Silicon - iron: prices in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton on September 17, e.g., 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton (down 50 for the day, up 40 for the week) [4] - Manganese - silicon: prices in some regions decreased by 20 yuan/ton on September 17, e.g., silicon - manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton (unchanged for the day, up 50 for the week) [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 316 (down 116 for the day, down 98 for the week) [4] - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 260 (down 46 for the day, down 86 for the week) [4] - SF - SM spread was - 224 (up 20 for the day, up 2 for the week) [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 40 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.2 for the week) [4] - Semi - carbonated South African ore was 34.3 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.3 for the week) [4] - Gabon lump was 40 yuan/ton degree (unchanged for the day, up 0.2 for the week) [4] - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi, it was 660 yuan/ton (unchanged for the day, up 10 for the week) [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With a warm macro - sentiment, prices are short - term strong, but the pressure of high supply remains, so the target should not be set too high [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [6] Silicon - iron - On September 17, spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 30 - 50 yuan/ton drop. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Demand data was average, increasing expectations of domestic stimulus policies after the Fed's potential rate cut. Market sentiment was boosted by Sino - US trade talks. It rebounded but faced high - supply pressure [5] Manganese - silicon - On September 17, manganese ore spot prices were stable, and manganese - silicon spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 20 yuan/ton drop. Supply increased slightly and remained high. Demand was dragged down by the decline in electric furnace operating rates. Cost was supported by low port inventories of manganese ore. It will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] Group 4: Important Information - On September 17, Tianjin Port manganese ore spot prices: Australian lump (Mn41.5%) was 40.2 yuan/ton degree, South African medium - iron lump (Mn42%Fe17%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 40.3 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn39.8%Fe7.6%) was 36 yuan/ton degree [7] - From January to August 2025, enterprise income tax revenue was 3.1477 trillion yuan, up 0.3% year - on - year, and individual income tax revenue was 1.0547 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit Silicon - iron - Inner Mongolia: production cost was 5550 yuan/ton, profit was - 150 yuan/ton [16] - Ningxia: production cost was 5603 yuan/ton, profit was - 203 yuan/ton [16] - Shaanxi: production cost was 5615 yuan/ton, profit was - 235 yuan/ton [16] - Qinghai: production cost was 5568 yuan/ton, profit was - 288 yuan/ton [16] - Gansu: production cost was 5618 yuan/ton, profit was - 318 yuan/ton [16] Manganese - silicon - Inner Mongolia: production cost was 5807 yuan/ton, profit was - 127 yuan/ton [21] - Ningxia: production cost was 5918 yuan/ton, profit was - 318 yuan/ton [21] - Guangxi: production cost was 6381 yuan/ton, profit was - 701 yuan/ton [21] - Guizhou: production cost was 6120 yuan/ton, profit was - 470 yuan/ton [21]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily strategy for ferroalloys, covering manganese silicon (MnSi) and ferrosilicon (FeSi), including market logic, trading strategies, and option strategies [1][3][4] - It also presents ferroalloy fundamentals such as weekly production and demand, inventory, and production costs [14] Group 2: Important News - On May 12, 2025, the US and China issued a joint statement on the Geneva economic and trade talks, reducing tariffs on each other's goods to 30% and 10% respectively [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan would not reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US without including automobile tariffs and was considering increasing corn imports from the US [1] - From January to April 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%, breaking through the 10 million mark for the first time [2] Group 3: Manganese Silicon (MnSi) Market Logic - The weak overall expectation for the black metal sector remains unchanged. The easing of tariffs only affects the decline rate and raises the pressure level, but it is only a rebound, not a reversal [3] - Since manganese ore is mainly imported, the rebound amplitude of MnSi may be relatively high. Although hot metal production remains at a high level of about 2.46 million tons, the upward space is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak and decline in a few weeks, which will put pressure on ferroalloy demand again [3] - Despite a significant reduction in MnSi production, the factory inventory is still increasing, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is relatively large, almost doubling compared to the same period last year, which also restricts the upward space [3] Trading Strategy - The market sentiment has eased, and manganese ore may drive MnSi to continue to rebound, but it is expected to peak and decline later. In the short term, use range trading, sell high after the rebound, and buy low when it falls to a low level. Pay attention to the support at 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at 5,960 - 5,980 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of MnSi call options was 114,839, an increase of 33,431, and the trading volume of put options was 61,613, an increase of 17,633. The trading volume PCR was 0.54 [40] Group 4: Ferrosilicon (FeSi) Market Logic - The Sino-US statement exceeded expectations, with a significant reduction in tariffs, and the warming macro sentiment drove commodities up. However, the black metal sector still faces pressure after the rebound, and it is only a rebound, not a reversal [4] - Currently, the main contract of FeSi has switched to 07. Due to the premium of the far-month contract, the main contract has a larger increase, but its cost may continue to decline, so its later decline may be greater than that of MnSi [4] - After the production reduction of ferroalloy plants, the output has decreased, and the factory inventory of FeSi has started to decline, but the inventory on the futures market has increased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is still relatively high [4] - The daily hot metal production is 2.45 million tons, with limited upward space and weak sustainability. There is an expectation of a decline in a few weeks. Once the hot metal weakens, the cost may drive the FeSi price to continue to decline [4] Trading Strategy - Although the supply of FeSi has shrunk, the demand increase is limited. The short-term rebound cannot change the overall pattern. Pay attention to the support at around 5,400 - 5,420 yuan/ton and the pressure at around 5,700 - 5,720 yuan/ton [5] Option Strategy - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of FeSi call options was 83,349, an increase of 54,852, and the trading volume of put options was 35,812, an increase of 17,007. The trading volume PCR was 0.43 [44] Group 5: Ferroalloy Fundamentals Weekly Production and Demand - The report shows charts of weekly production, demand, and hot metal production for MnSi and FeSi [15][17][19] Inventory - The report presents charts of inventory and inventory days for MnSi and FeSi [21][24][27] Production Costs - The report provides charts of spot production costs and profits for MnSi and FeSi, as well as the average price of semi-coke in Ningxia and the market price of chemical coke in Shanxi [29][34][39]