1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It's recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, after the holiday, demand may gradually pick up. It's also recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, it's expected that consumption may recover after the holiday. It's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 23,845 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position is 252,168 hands, up 4,008 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum is - 62,653 hands, down 8,177 hands; the SHFE - LME ratio is 7.51, down 0.15; the SHFE aluminum inventory is 297,340 tons, up 52,200 tons; the SHFE aluminum warrant is 288,287 tons, up 3,112 tons [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,820 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 65 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main contract position is 340,118 hands, up 35,111 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the main contract position is 9,330 hands, down 2,149 hands; the SHFE registered warrant is 66,174 tons, down 907 tons; the SHFE inventory is 72,735 tons, down 1,690 tons [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation is 3,174.5 dollars/ton, up 64 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 469,550 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warrant is 47,325 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 20.4 dollars/ton, up 6.22 dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 23,800 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 23,520 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 23,360 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the alumina spot price of SMM is 2,570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 325 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.00%, down 1.00 percentage point; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 18,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal waste is 17,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import of aluminum waste and scrap is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. - China's alumina export is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the alumina import is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 20.49 million tons, up 31.36 million tons; the primary aluminum import is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the primary aluminum export is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 107.12 million tons, up 21.01 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,540.20 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.79%, up 0.48 percentage point [2]. - The aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 66.49 million tons, down 1.91 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44; the aluminum alloy production is 182.50 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum is 38.77%, down 0.14 percentage point; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.83%, unchanged; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 16.85%, down 0.0032; the call - put ratio of SHFE aluminum options is 1.82, up 0.0671 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Trade Representative may take tariff measures after the 301 investigation on China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement [2]. - Chinese and German leaders held talks, emphasizing deepening economic and trade cooperation and resolving concerns through dialogue [2]. - The inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry at the end of January is at a high level, with relatively large inventory pressure [2]. - Fujian Province issued an implementation plan for trading in old cars for new ones in 2026, providing subsidies for eligible new car purchases [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, suggest light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks due to factors like supply and demand changes and technical indicators [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, recommend light - position oscillatory trading, pay attention to rhythm and trading risks considering supply - demand situation and option market sentiment [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, advocate light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks based on raw material supply, supply - demand and technical analysis [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,910 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai aluminum is 258,440 hands, down 7,183 hands. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 US dollars/ton, up 23 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 537,900 tons, down 1,150 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.59, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Contracts**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 85 yuan, up 1 yuan. The main contract position of alumina is 358,708 hands, down 1,212 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 115 yuan, down 60 yuan. The main contract position is 15,759 hands, up 12,052 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 60 yuan, unchanged. The LME aluminum premium/discount is - 27.51 US dollars/ton, down 1.56 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Base - related Data**: The base of cast aluminum alloy is 405 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the base of electrolytic aluminum is - 180 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the base of alumina is 100 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Supply - demand**: The monthly output of alumina is 786.50 million tons, down 13.40%. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. China's import of aluminum scrap and fragments is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; export is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: The export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged. The production of electrolytic aluminum is affected by winter environmental protection and seasonal demand, showing a slight decline [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly output of automobiles is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 10.66%, down 0.30%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.72%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.04%, up 0.0081. The call - put ratio is 1.69, up 0.0507 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine consecutive months [2]. - In November, BYD's new - energy vehicle sales were 480,200 units. Zero - Run's total delivery reached 70,327 units, up over 75% year - on - year. Other auto companies also had different sales performances [2]. - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5 [2]. - The production schedule of the three major white - goods in December 2025 is 30.18 million units, down 14.1% compared with the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract oscillates downward, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Supply may gradually converge due to profit issues, and demand shows some resilience. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates stronger, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. Supply decreases slightly, and demand has some resilience due to end - of - year factors. The option market sentiment is bullish. Recommend light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract oscillates, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. Supply may decline due to raw material shortage, and demand has some support from end - of - year consumption. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Axis mine is assumed not to resume normal production in 2025, and the GAC mine problem remains unresolved, resulting in a reduction of about 1.3 million tons in bauxite supply. The expected increase in bauxite supply from various sources is about 3.8 million tons, leading to an estimated annual surplus of 300,000 - 500,000 tons even with the scheduled commissioning of new alumina production capacity in China. However, the uncertainty of overseas geopolitics needs to be watched [6]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable, with a current operating rate of about 97% and an operating capacity of about 44.1 million tons. The net new capacity in 2025 is only 100,000 - 200,000 tons, and the peak operating capacity is expected to be about 44.3 million tons [6]. - From January to May, the cumulative net export of aluminum products was 2.121 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, with the decline gradually narrowing. It is predicted that the export of aluminum products in 2025 will decline by 10% year - on - year. The cumulative automobile production was 12.82 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, and it is predicted that the annual automobile production will increase by about 4% year - on - year, driving an incremental aluminum consumption of about 700,000 tons [6]. - From January to May, China's photovoltaic installation was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times. It is expected that the annual component production will be 590GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the annual installation will be 320GW, a year - on - year increase of 15%, contributing an incremental aluminum consumption of about 250,000 tons. The rapid development of new energy drives the high - growth of power grid investment, and it is expected that the annual power grid construction will drive an incremental aluminum consumption of 300,000 - 350,000 tons [7][8]. - The aluminum alloy industry is facing a full - cost loss of over 200 yuan/ton, and the cost support is evident. The ADC12 price is underestimated compared to A00, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between them [8]. Summary by Directory I. Alumina 1.1 AxIS Disturbance, but Bauxite Supply Remains Sufficient - Since 2025, the bauxite price has been in a unilateral decline, from a maximum of $115/ton to a minimum of $70/ton. After the Axis mine incident in mid - May, the price rebounded weakly to a maximum of $75/ton. The domestic bauxite price has also declined from a high level but is relatively firm compared to imported ore [15]. - From January to May, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 85.176 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. The domestic bauxite production was 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. Even considering the supply reduction caused by the Axis and GAC mines, the annual bauxite supply is expected to have a surplus of 300,000 - 500,000 tons. However, the uncertainty of overseas geopolitics may have additional impacts [16]. - Starting in June, the bauxite production and shipment in Guinea are expected to decline. Considering the shipping time, China's imports are expected to decline in August, and the spot market may face a structural supply shortage. However, due to the overall supply surplus, the price increase is expected to be limited [17]. 1.2 New Capacity Commissioned as Scheduled, Alumina Supply Shifts from Tight to Surplus - Since November 2024, the alumina price has been in a unilateral decline. After a period of concentrated maintenance by alumina plants, the price rebounded, but then entered a downward channel again in June with the resumption of production [28]. - Overseas alumina market is stronger than the domestic market due to the expected difference in new capacity commissioning and production release. China's alumina import market has been closed [29]. - From January to May 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production was 36.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The net export of alumina from January to May was 1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100%. It is expected that the annual production will be about 88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the domestic alumina surplus will exceed 3 million tons without considering exports. Overseas supply will also turn into a surplus [31]. - The current alumina spot market is in a game situation. The marginal maximum full - cost of alumina production is 2,900 yuan/ton, and the industry still has profits. The low warehouse receipt volume may cause delivery risks, and the impact of the Middle East situation on alumina prices needs to be observed [32]. II. Electrolytic Aluminum 2.1 Stable Domestic Supply and Strong Consumption - From January to May, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 18.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The current operating rate is about 97%, and the operating capacity is about 44.1 million tons. The net new capacity in 2025 is only 100,000 - 200,000 tons, and the peak operating capacity is expected to be about 44.3 million tons. The probability of production reduction due to power supply problems during the dry season from the end of 2025 to the beginning of next year is low [57]. - From January to May, China's cumulative net import of electrolytic aluminum was 990,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The import from Russia increased due to the impact of出料加工 [57]. - The overall consumption is strong. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased from the post - Spring Festival peak of 870,000 tons to 450,000 tons and shows no sign of accumulation. Although the consumption shows signs of a seasonal off - season, it still maintains a year - on - year positive growth. The current electrolytic aluminum industry has a weighted profit of 3,700 yuan/ton, and the cost of alumina still has room to decline [58]. 2.2 Just Track the Impact of the Middle East Crisis; It's Too Early to Talk about an Energy Crisis - Although the crude oil price has risen sharply due to the Middle East geopolitical crisis, it is too early to judge that it will cause an energy crisis and electrolytic aluminum production reduction. The European natural gas inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and the natural gas price is still in a large - range bottom shock [71]. - The impact of the Middle East crisis on the shipping route and whether it will cause production reduction due to raw material transportation problems need to be continuously tracked [71]. III. Downstream Consumption 3.1 Seasonal Off - season Consumption Shows a Marginal Weakening Trend - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has been continuously decreasing, but from the micro - data, the consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. The aluminum rod inventory has started to accumulate, and the weekly production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils has declined. In the traditional summer off - season, the aluminum ingot inventory may remain low, and the aluminum rod may show an accumulation trend [77]. 3.2 Exports Are Stronger than Expected, and Consumption May Be Front - loaded - From January to May, the cumulative net export of aluminum products was 2.121 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, with the decline gradually narrowing. It is predicted that the export of aluminum products in 2025 will decline by 10% year - on - year, but the actual situation is better than expected, which may be due to the rush to export during the Sino - US tariff window period. The automobile production from January to May was 12.82 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%, but there may be a situation of front - loaded consumption [83]. 3.3 The Worst Moment for Photovoltaic May Be Over; Don't Be Too Pessimistic about the Material Demand in the Second Half of the Year - From January to May, China's component production was 237GW, a year - on - year increase of only 2.6%. The installation was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times, mainly due to the impact of relevant policies. It is expected that the annual component production will be 590GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, and the annual installation will be 320GW, a year - on - year increase of 15%, contributing an incremental aluminum consumption of about 250,000 tons. The power grid construction is expected to drive an incremental aluminum consumption of 300,000 - 350,000 tons [91][92]. 3.4 Government Subsidies Drive the Home Appliance Industry, but the Real Estate Industry Still Drags Down Consumption - From January to May, the cumulative production of air conditioners increased by 5.9% year - on - year, the production of color TVs decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, the production of household refrigerators decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the production of household washing machines increased by 9.3% year - on - year. The real estate industry is still a drag on consumption, with negative year - on - year growth in construction start, completion, and construction data [98]. IV. Aluminum Alloy Is Undervalued Compared to Aluminum Price - From January to May, the domestic waste aluminum production was 3.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the waste aluminum import was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The cumulative production of recycled alloys was 2.853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The waste aluminum supply is tight, and the aluminum alloy industry is facing a full - cost loss of over 200 yuan/ton. The ADC12 price is underestimated compared to A00, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between them [103][105].