Workflow
锂价宽幅震荡
icon
Search documents
碳酸锂日评:谨防冲高回落-20251119
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 02:43
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market transactions are slow. The power demand has shown signs of peaking, and the game between bulls and bears has intensified. The trading is overcrowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely and may fall after a sharp rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high prices. [1] Summary According to Related Data Carbonate Lithium Futures - **Price Changes**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to November 17, 2025. For example, the near - month contract closed at 93,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,720 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 1,487,724 lots (+120,805), and the open interest was 484,357 lots (-78,597). [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased by 342 tons to 26,611 tons. [1] Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,056 US dollars/ton, an increase of 32 US dollars/ton. [1] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds increased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 87,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. [1] Downstream Product Prices - **Cathode Materials**: The prices of some cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged. For example, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 142,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. [1] - **Anode Materials**: The price of artificial graphite (high - end) remained unchanged. [1] - **Electrolyte**: The prices of electrolytes for different applications remained unchanged. [1] - **Cobalt - Related Products**: The prices of cobalt - related products such as electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate remained unchanged. [1] Inventory Situation - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons last week. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other parts increased. [1] News and Policies - **Futures Transaction Fee Adjustment**: Starting from the trading time on November 20, 2025, the trading fee standard of the LC2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures is adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount, and the intraday flat - today trading fee standard is also adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount. [1] - **Sigma Lithium Production Suspension**: Sigma Lithium suspended the production of its flagship project in Brazil from late September to October to upgrade mining equipment. The company plans to complete the expansion by the end of 2026, increasing the total capacity from 245,000 tons/year to 520,000 tons/year. [1]
碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251114
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 02:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On November 13, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The spot market had light trading, and the basis discount widened. With supply and demand both showing certain trends, the news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi was inconsistent, lithium carbonate production remained high, high prices intensified the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, the spot market trading was light, there was an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the long - short game intensified. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high levels, and speculators can try short positions lightly after the upward trend encounters resistance [1] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On November 13, the closing price of the near - month contract was 86,400 yuan/ton (+1,480 compared to the previous day), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 87,660 yuan/ton (+1,160), the closing price of the continuous - two contract was 87,620 yuan/ton (+1,340), the closing price of the continuous - three contract was 87,620 yuan/ton (+1,340), and the closing price of another contract was 87,840 yuan/ton (+1,260). The trading volume of the active contract was 1,106,011 lots (-39,318), and the open interest was 536,514 lots (+7,548). The inventory was 27,508 tons (-779) [1] - The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 1,260 yuan/ton (+320), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was 40 yuan/ton (-180), the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 3,490 yuan/ton (-210) [1] Spot Market - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) average price was 1,001 US dollars/ton (+17), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price was 1,450 yuan/ton (+30), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price was 2,280 yuan/ton (+35), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) average price was 8,085 yuan/ton (+205), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) average price was 9,510 yuan/ton (+215) [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) average price was 84,350 yuan/ton (+1,050), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) average price was 82,000 yuan/ton (+900), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan and South Korea) average price was 10.15 US dollars/kg (+0.15), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, coarse - grained, domestic) average price was 76,180 yuan/ton (+200), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, micronized, domestic) average price was 81,050 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - The spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 8,170 yuan/ton (-850), the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,350 yuan/ton (+150), the spread between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 4,252.03 yuan/ton (+894.97) [1] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%, domestic) average price was 131,000 yuan/ton (+5,500), ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline, consumer - type) average price was 105,500 yuan/ton (+100), ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal, power - type) average price was 95,025 yuan/ton (+50), ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline, consumer - type) average price was 88,275 yuan/ton (+25), ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline, power - type) average price was 106,850 yuan/ton (+25) [1] - Ternary material 523 (single - crystal, power - type) average price was 141,650 yuan/ton (+500), ternary material 523 (polycrystalline, consumer - type) average price was 154,325 yuan/ton (+1,000), ternary material 622 (polycrystalline, consumer - type) average price was 143,075 yuan/ton (+3,500), ternary material 811 (polycrystalline, power - type) average price was 160,350 yuan/ton (+100) [1] - Lithium iron phosphate (power - type) average price was 36,960 yuan/ton (+355), lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy - storage type) average price was 35,510 yuan/ton (+255), lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) average price was 32,180 yuan/ton (+250), cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V, domestic) average price was 377,000 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - Artificial graphite (high - end, ≥355mAh/g) average price was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged), electrolyte (for ternary power) average price was 27,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) average price was 25,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), electrolyte (for cobalt acid lithium) average price was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged), electrolyte (for manganese acid lithium) average price was 20,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - Electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%, Jinchuan) average price was 394,000 yuan/ton (+1,250), cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%, domestic) average price was 88,500 yuan/ton (+100), cobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%, domestic) average price was 342,500 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Inventory - SMM lithium carbonate inventory: smelters had 28,270 tons (-2,445 compared to the previous week), downstream had 48,772 tons (-3,236), others had 43,430 tons (+2,200), and the total was 120,472 tons (-3,481) [1] Industry News - Atlantic Lithium, an Australian - based company, announced that the mining lease for its flagship Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana has been submitted to the Ghanaian Parliament for review and approval. The lease was initially granted in October 2023 for 15 years and is renewable. Once approved, the company can proceed with financing and off - take agreements for Ghana's first lithium mine [1] - Rio Tinto, the world's second - largest mining company, has put its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia on hold. The project, with an investment of $2.95 billion, will enter the "maintenance" state. The project has faced local community opposition, political difficulties, and slow permit approvals [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was flat month - on - month. Production from spodumene and lithium mica decreased, while production from salt lakes and recycling increased [1] - Demand: Last week, lithium iron phosphate production increased, ternary material production decreased. In November, cobalt acid lithium production is planned to increase, manganese acid lithium production is planned to decrease. Last week, power battery production increased. In October, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down month - on - month. 3C shipments were average. In November, energy - storage battery production is planned to increase [1]
碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251113
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:59
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely, with an increase in trading volume and open interest. The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis discount narrowed. The prices of cost - related lithium concentrate and lithium mica increased. Last week, lithium carbonate production rose, as did the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. In November, the estimated production of lithium carbonate increased while the scheduled production decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed a slowdown in the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales in October, general 3C shipments, and an increase in the estimated production of energy - storage batteries in November. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and there was destocking in smelters, downstream, and other sectors. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi. High prices have intensified downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the power demand is expected to weaken. The game between bulls and bears has intensified, and it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely, with a trading volume of 1,145,329 lots (+242,839) and an open interest of 528,966 lots (+2,473) [1]. - The price differences between different contracts showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract being - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) being - 3,280 yuan/ton, with a change of +1,360 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis discount narrowed. The prices of lithium concentrate and lithium mica increased. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all rose. In November, the estimated production of lithium carbonate increased while the scheduled production decreased [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were general, and the estimated production of energy - storage batteries in November increased [1]. Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 28,287 tons (+188 tons), and there was destocking in smelters, downstream, and other sectors. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 127,358 tons, a decrease of 3,405 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Mineral Resources will sell 30% of its lithium business stake to POSCO for $765 million, aiming to reduce debt and repair the balance sheet. POSCO will enter the Australian lithium mining field for the first time [1]. - Ningde Times' Yichun Guanshixia lithium mine has new progress in resuming production. It may need to pay an additional 177 million yuan in mining rights transfer income [1]. - Core Lithium optimized the mining plan for the Grants deposit of the Finniss project, reducing pre - production capital expenditure by A$35 - 45 million, advancing the production time of the first batch of ore, increasing the ore reserve by 33% to 1.53 million tons, and increasing the lithium chloride content by 44% [1]. Investment Strategy - Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices, and speculators can try short positions lightly after the upward trend encounters resistance [1].
碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the high price intensifies the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market. However, there is an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the game between bulls and bears intensifies. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased in price with an increase in positions. The trading volume was 986,569 lots (+175,914), and the position volume was 534,483 lots (+43,532). The trading in the spot market was sluggish, and the basis discount was large [1]. - The prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and the overall price all increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the near - month contract's closing price increased from 80,460 yuan/ton on November 7 to 84,500 yuan/ton on November 10 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related products generally showed an upward trend. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 39 US dollars/ton to 966 US dollars/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 1,365 yuan/ton [1]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) increased by 350 yuan/ton to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 75,630 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply side**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all increased. In November, the planned production of lithium carbonate increased, and the scheduled production decreased [1]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials increased. In November, the planned production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,491 tons (+159 tons), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties all decreased. The total inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,953 tons last week [1]. 3.5 Industry News - In October, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale volume was 12.058 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% [1]. - The Secretariat of Mining and Energy of Salta Province, Argentina, has issued an Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the first phase of the PPGS Jujuy Lake project, marking a key progress for the project. The project plans to submit an application for the Large - scale Investment Promotion System (RIGI) to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026 and has about 15,070 tons of LCE indicated + controlled resources [1].
碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251107
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On November 6, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market remained weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. With the current balance between supply and demand, the news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is uncertain. Lithium carbonate production remains high, and high prices increase downstream wait - and - see sentiment. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to decline. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Summary Based on Relevant Content Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on November 6 were 81,840 yuan/ton, 83,400 yuan/ton, 83,400 yuan/ton, and 83,400 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases compared to previous periods [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on November 6 was 582,033 hands (+66,302), and the open interest was 471,983 hands (+18,723) [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis between SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price and the closing price of the active contract was - 3,400 yuan/ton on November 6, changing from premium to discount. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [1]. Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Compounds**: The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the price of lithium mica remained flat. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton (-100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan/ton (-100) on November 6 [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and power batteries increased last week. In November, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide increased, while that of lithium manganate decreased. The production and sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in October slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries in November increased [1]. Inventory Data - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,420 tons (-410), and social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and others all decreased [1]. Industry News - **Chile's Lithium Exports**: In October, Chile's lithium export volume was 27,562 tons, of which the export volume of lithium carbonate was 24,769 tons. The export volume of lithium carbonate to China was 16,210 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 40% [1]. - **Kodal Minerals' Project**: The first - phase project of the Bougouni lithium mine in southern Mali was officially launched on November 3. As of now, the cumulative output of lithium ore has exceeded 45,000 tons, with the target annual production capacity of the first phase being 125,000 tons [1]. - **Australia's Prairie Lithium Project**: Australia's Prairie Lithium has started the construction of the largest direct lithium extraction (DLE) plant in North America in Canada. The project has sufficient resources, with inferred and controlled resources equivalent to about 4 million tons of lithium carbonate [1].