Core Insights - The report indicates a rising trend in the prices of third-generation refrigerants as of August 29, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 51,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% compared to the end of July [1][2] - The price of R22 has also increased to 35,500 yuan/ton, marking a 1.43% rise from the previous month and an 18.33% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights a decline in domestic air conditioning production from September to November 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 11.98%, 22.60%, and 19.70% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are set to be reduced in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September, where R32, R134a, and R125 saw increases of 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [4] - Major companies in the refrigerant production sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., reported substantial year-on-year net profit growths of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the refrigerant industry, indicating a potential increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 20% or more within the next six months [72]. Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant prices have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September. As of September 19, 2025, the prices for R32, R134a, and R125 have risen by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [7][66]. - The supply-demand relationship for second and third-generation refrigerants remains tight due to quota reductions and strong downstream demand, suggesting continued high profitability for related production companies [66]. - Major companies in the refrigerant sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., have reported substantial year-on-year profit growth, indicating a robust industry outlook [66]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Prices and Production - As of August 29, 2025, the prices for R32, R125, and R134a are 60,000 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 51,500 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% respectively compared to the end of July [7][15]. - Domestic production of R32, R134a, and R125 in August 2025 has increased by 63.05%, 66.77%, and 35.64% year-on-year [16]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has decreased by 6.31%, 5.34%, and 4.66% respectively, indicating a tightening supply [19]. Company Performance - Haohua Technology reported a revenue of 7.76 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%, with a net profit of 725 million CNY, up 29.68% [58][59]. - Sanmei Co. achieved a revenue of 2.83 billion CNY, a 38.58% increase, and a net profit of 995 million CNY, reflecting a 159.22% growth year-on-year [60][61]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the refrigerant industry will maintain high prosperity levels, with companies expected to continue improving their profitability due to favorable market conditions [66]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector and those with a well-established industrial chain, such as Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. [66].

Summary of Refrigerant Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry in China is experiencing stable quota policies, with the total quota for 2026 remaining the same as in 2025, while quotas for R25 and R41 are increased to compensate for the exit of 141B from the market, leading to an expected continuous rise in overall prices [1][3][18]. Key Points and Arguments Quota Adjustments and Price Trends - The quota for 232 types of refrigerants can be flexibly adjusted between 10% and 30%, allowing companies to respond to market demand while maintaining overall price increases under national control [1][4]. - The average price of third-generation refrigerants is approximately 50,000 yuan, with a long-term stable upward trend, although short-term volatility is expected for products like R32 [1][6]. Demand from Downstream Sectors - Despite a downturn in the global real estate market, demand for refrigerants in downstream sectors such as air conditioning and refrigeration continues to grow, with annual growth in new air conditioning units projected at 8% to 15% [1][7][12]. - Approximately 80% of new air conditioning units still utilize third-generation refrigerants, indicating a stable demand growth in the air conditioning market [8][12]. Future Production Capacity - An estimated 100,000 tons of new production capacity is expected to be launched in the Middle East and India by 2026, which could alleviate supply-demand tensions, although the success rate of these projects is anticipated to be below 40% [1][9][11]. Liquid Cooling Technology Impact - Liquid cooling technology is significantly increasing the demand for third-generation refrigerants, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with expected annual demand reaching tens of thousands of tons [1][14]. Second and Fourth Generation Refrigerants - The second-generation refrigerants are facing quota reductions, while the fourth-generation refrigerants currently lack formal domestic production capacity, with large-scale production expected only after 2030 [2][15]. - The price of second-generation refrigerants is expected to stabilize, while fourth-generation refrigerants are projected to see a rapid increase in application in air conditioning systems, reaching 20% by 2025 [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The actual usage of refrigerants globally is around 23,000 tons, with a mismatch between planned production capacity and actual demand [17]. - The overall price trend for refrigerants is expected to maintain a 30% increase before 2029, driven by technological advancements and market demand changes [25]. - The current average price for second and third-generation refrigerants is about 80,000 yuan per ton, nearing a peak, with a potential ceiling at 100,000 yuan [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the refrigerant industry conference call, highlighting the current state, future expectations, and underlying dynamics affecting the market.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The fluorochemical industry has shown strong performance, with the fluorochemical index rising by 16.75% in August, outperforming major indices [1][15]. - Main refrigerant prices are expected to continue stable growth, driven by limited supply and strong demand, particularly for R32 and R134a [2][22]. - The development of liquid cooling technology is anticipated to significantly boost demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods become inadequate [4][62]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - As of August 29, 2025, the fluorochemical index reached 1681.54 points, up 16.75% from the end of July, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 7.77 percentage points [1][15]. 2. Refrigerant Market Review - R32 prices are projected to rise to 62,000 CNY/ton by November, while R134a is expected to reach 54,000 CNY/ton [2][22]. - Export prices for R32, R22, and R134a as of July 2025 were 46,576 CNY/ton, 26,480 CNY/ton, and 44,598 CNY/ton respectively [2][35]. 3. Liquid Cooling Demand - The shift towards liquid cooling in data centers is driven by increasing power densities, with a projected market size exceeding 100 billion CNY by 2027 [62][66]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4][70]. 4. Regulatory Environment - The report discusses China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage planned for 2025-2030 [71][74]. - The production quota for R22 is set to decrease by 28% compared to 2024, reflecting ongoing regulatory pressures [74][76]. 5. Key Company Forecasts - Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are recommended as investment targets due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the refrigerant sector [5][8].

Summary of Dongyue Group's Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of Dongyue Group, focusing on its refrigerant, fluoropolymer materials, organic silicon, dichloromethane, and caustic soda businesses. Key Points and Arguments Refrigerant Business - In the first half of 2025, the refrigerant business revenue increased by approximately 210%, driven by rising prices of R32 and R410, alongside market tightness due to quota restrictions [2][4][5] - Despite a decline in R22 sales volume, the price increase positively impacted overall revenue [4][5] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the refrigerant market, expecting stable demand and pricing due to supply-side constraints [4][15][17] Fluoropolymer Materials and Organic Silicon - The fluoropolymer materials segment experienced a 14.57% decline in performance, attributed to continuous price drops and a lack of significant demand recovery [2][6] - The organic silicon segment faced challenges due to industry overcapacity and weak demand, resulting in substantial performance declines [2][6] Dichloromethane and Caustic Soda - The dichloromethane and caustic soda businesses performed well, with significant price increases in caustic soda contributing positively to overall performance [2][7] - These chemical raw materials benefit from limited transportation radius, enhancing sales in surrounding regions [7] Research and Development, Cost Control - The company continues to invest in R&D and cost control, with distribution and sales expenses down by 7.6% and administrative expenses down by 5.2% year-on-year [2][9][8] - Future plans include specialized production and sales targeting downstream customers to improve efficiency and capacity utilization [9] Capital Expenditure and Projects - The investment in the thermal power plant project is approximately 2 billion yuan, with partial production expected this year, though economic benefits may not be immediately apparent [2][10] - A 12,000-ton high-end fluorinated fine chemicals project is nearing completion, with plans to increase the proportion of high-end products in the future [2][11] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Dongyue Group reported revenue of 7.463 billion yuan, a 2.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 779 million yuan, up 152.9% [3] - The refrigerant business was particularly strong, contributing significantly to profit growth, while other segments faced losses [3] Tax and Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a tax rate in the low teens and aims to continue benefiting from tax reduction policies due to high-tech certifications [12][19] - The dividend policy will be adjusted based on operational performance and future outlook, with a conservative approach due to significant capital expenditures [19] Market Demand and Future Outlook - The company expresses confidence in future market demand, supported by favorable weather conditions and export growth in certain regions [16][17] - The company does not anticipate adverse policy changes that could disrupt supply-demand balance [17] Challenges and Risks - The organic silicon segment may face further challenges due to potential impairments and the impact of a recent fire incident [25] - The company is cautious about the future performance of its real estate and older power plant assets, which have contributed to recent losses [22] Raw Material Costs - The cost structure for raw materials, primarily fluorite, calcium carbide, and methanol, remains stable, with no immediate supply shortages expected [26] Future Product Development - The company is exploring new product developments but has not yet entered large-scale production, making future impacts uncertain [24] Conclusion - Dongyue Group is navigating a mixed performance landscape across its business segments, with strong growth in refrigerants and challenges in fluoropolymer materials and organic silicon. The company is focused on cost control, R&D, and maintaining a positive outlook for future market conditions.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with expectations of a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][19]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's profitability has significantly improved due to rising refrigerant prices and the gradual ramp-up of production capacity at Shaowu Yonghe. The company achieved a revenue of 2.445 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 271 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140.82% [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company's revenue is projected to grow from 4.369 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.924 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [1][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 184 million yuan in 2023 to 1.024 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth rate of 18.9% [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.39 yuan in 2023 to 2.18 yuan in 2027 [1][10]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is expected to improve from 7.0% in 2023 to 20.0% in 2027 [1][10]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company has benefited from favorable quota policies in the refrigerant sector, leading to an optimized supply-demand structure and increased product prices. The average selling prices for fluorocarbon chemicals, fluoropolymer materials, and chemical raw materials in the first half of 2025 were 30,200 yuan/ton, 42,600 yuan/ton, and 1,800 yuan/ton, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 33.33%, 1.83%, and a decrease of 6.45% [2][9]. - The company has seen a continuous improvement in production efficiency and product quality, particularly in its fluoropolymer materials, contributing to its profitability [2][9]. Capacity and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing production efficiency. Current projects include the construction of new environmentally friendly refrigerant and fluoropolymer production bases, which will support sustainable business development [9]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to explore new profit growth areas in fourth-generation refrigerants, electronic immersion cooling liquids, and high-end fluorine fine chemicals [10].

在建项目稳健推进，梯次布局为长期成长奠基。公司重点聚焦环保型氟碳化学品和含氟高分子材料两大 业务领域。截至报告期末，主要产品年产能为：无水氢氟酸13.5 万吨；甲烷氯化物19.7 万吨；氟碳化学 品单质19 万吨；含氟高分子材料及单体8.28 万吨；含氟精细化学品0.70 万吨；另具备混配/分装制冷剂 9.72 万吨能力。目前在建项目包括8 万吨氢氟酸、超3万吨含氟高分子材料及4.3 万吨第四代制冷剂。现 有产能与在建项目形成梯次产能布局，为公司业务可持续发展奠定坚实基础。 投资建议：受HCFCs 生产配额持续缩减、HFCs 配额管理政策延续的影响，行业供给端约束强化，叠加 行业生态与竞争秩序的改善，使得制冷剂价格持续上行。公司凭借5.82 万吨HFCs 配额优势，协同产业 链资源，盈利中枢有望持续上行。预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为6.95、9.45、11.89亿元，同 比增速为+176.53%、+35.94%、+25.88%，对应PE 分别为19、14、11 倍。首次覆盖，给予"推荐"评级。 公司制冷剂产品均价持续增长，1H25 业绩同比大幅增长。公司营业收入实现快速增长，利润同比大幅 提 ...

Group 1 - The prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased as of July 31, 2025, reaching 55,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 50,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4.76%, 0%, and 2.04% compared to the end of April [1][2] - The price of R22 remains stable at 35,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, but up 14.75% year-on-year; the price difference is 26,842 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the end of last month [1][2] - The prices of fluorinated polymers have decreased, with PTFE suspension medium, dispersion emulsion, and dispersion resin priced at 37,000 yuan/ton, 28,000 yuan/ton, and 40,000 yuan/ton respectively as of July 31, 2025 [2] Group 2 - The production of household air conditioners is expected to decline year-on-year from August to October 2025, with total production volumes of 11.443 million units, 10.662 million units, and 12.356 million units respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of -2.79%, -12.70%, and -12.10% [2] - Zhongxin Fluorine Materials expects a net profit of 4.7589 million to 6.0809 million yuan for the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 23.1287 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Yonghe Co. reported a revenue of 2.445 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, with a gross margin of 25.29%, up 7.36 percentage points from the previous year, and a net profit of 271 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 140.82% [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand relationship for second and third-generation refrigerants remains tight, with a reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas and a stable total production quota for third-generation refrigerants [3] - The refrigerant prices have been steadily increasing since 2025, with a notable rise in July, indicating a high level of industry prosperity and potential for significant profit growth for related production companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the refrigerant industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [75]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of third-generation refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant growth in the first half of the year. The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are being reduced, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants remains at baseline levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand relationship [7][69]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. are expected to see substantial profit increases, reflecting a high level of industry prosperity [69]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Prices and Production - As of July 31, 2025, the prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a are 55,000 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 50,000 CNY/ton, respectively, showing increases of 4.76%, 0%, and 2.04% compared to the end of April [7][16]. - The production of R32, R134a, and R125 in July 2025 has increased by 49.68%, 66.11%, and 32.74% year-on-year, respectively [17]. Market Trends - The report notes a decline in air conditioning production in August 2025, with expected further declines in September and October, with production figures of 11.44 million units, 10.66 million units, and 12.36 million units, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -2.79%, -12.70%, and -12.10% [39]. - The report also mentions a decrease in refrigerator production, with August 2025 figures at 7.62 million units, down 9.50% year-on-year [40]. Company Performance - Zhongxin Fluorine Materials expects a net profit of 4.76 million to 6.08 million CNY for the first half of 2025, recovering from a loss of 23.13 million CNY in the same period last year [60]. - Yonghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.445 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.39%, with a net profit of 271 million CNY, up 140.82% [63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as companies related to fluorine chemical raw materials like Jinshi Resources [69].

Core Viewpoint - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain high demand as the new cooling year approaches, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July. The overall sales performance remains strong, indicating a potential uplift in refrigerant demand [1][4]. Group 1: Refrigerant Production and Policy - In the first half of 2025, the production of refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 reached 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%, 37%, and 34% of the annual quota [2]. - The export volumes for R32 and R134a in the same period were 40,000 tons and 50,000 tons, representing about 41% and 39% of their respective annual export quotas [2]. - The supply-demand environment for refrigerants in 2025 is relatively balanced, with some varieties being relatively abundant, reducing the necessity for quota increases. The policy regarding refrigerant quotas is expected to remain stable through mid-2026 [2]. Group 2: Refrigerant Pricing Trends - Despite a decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise. The latest corporate quotation for R32 is nearing 60,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The pricing power for refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, indicating that the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand does not dominate refrigerant price trends [3]. - Internationally, the price of R32 in Europe approached 20,000 euros per ton in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential for domestic refrigerant prices [3]. Group 3: Air Conditioning Market Performance - As the new cooling year approaches in late August 2025, the retail sales of air conditioning units have shown strong growth. Offline retail sales increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online sales surged by 26.17% [4]. - The retail volume for air conditioning units also saw a year-on-year increase of 16.15% offline and 30.28% online, with certain regions experiencing stock shortages [4]. - Given the current sales dynamics, air conditioning production is expected to remain high, which will likely boost refrigerant demand [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Following the release of refrigerant companies' performance in the first half of 2025, the sector's valuation has seen a decline. Concerns remain regarding the stability of the policy environment and the potential impact on future refrigerant demand [5]. - The expectation of stable policies in 2025 and 2026, along with the continued rise in refrigerant prices during the off-season, suggests that market expectations may gradually improve, leading to a potential recovery in sector valuations [5]. - Companies in the refrigerant supply chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), and others, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their expected valuation increases [5].