A股复盘 | 暴阳 / 2026.01.07 惊心动魄的一天，跳水—拉起来—再跳水—再拉起来，艰难守住14连阳！ 不过中信证券尾盘卖一又出现了超14.5亿元巨额压单， 村里又来指导"慢牛"了！ 这已经是中信证券近四个月内出现的第三次类似情况。此前在2025年9月17日和10月24日收盘集合竞价，中信证券曾分别出现超30亿和10 亿元压单。 有观点认为，在近期沪指突破4000点关键心理关口时，中信证券作为券商龙头和重要权重股，这种大部分挂单并未成交的大额卖单，可能意 在释放"上涨有阻力"的信号，引导市场情绪不过热，符合"慢牛"的调控思路。 | | | 中信证券尾盘出现大额卖单情况统计 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 医申金额 | 最终成交 | 当日涨跌幅 | 当日沪指涨跌幅 | 次日沪指涨跌幅 | | 2026/1/7 | 超14.5亿元 | 约1.02亿元 | -2. 29% | 0. 05% | | | 2025/10/24 | 超10亿元 | 约0.7亿元 | 1. 19% | 0.71% | 1. 18% | | 2025/9/1 ...

化工板块今日（12月30日）重拾攻势！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低开后震荡拉升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.63%，截至发稿， 涨1.4%。 成份股方面，石化、氮肥、农药等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，恒逸石化飙涨超6%，荣盛石化、新凤鸣、恒力石化等大涨超5%，桐昆股份、鲁西化 工、华鲁恒升等涨超3%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 ▼ | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 & (2) | | | > | KTETE ® | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.874 | | | | 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - | 516020[化工ETF] 11:03 价 0.872 涨跌 0.012(1.40%) 均价 0.863 成交量 2228 | | | | 1.63% | WP | 0 872 | | +0.012 +1.40% | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The company is rated as "Buy" for the first time [1][8] - The report highlights that the company is a leading domestic organic pigment manufacturer with a comprehensive product range covering various application fields [6][15] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.125 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, a decrease of 0.67% [6][28] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" policies introduced in 2025 will benefit the chemical industry by eliminating outdated production capacity, which will enhance the company's profitability [6][36] - The company is expanding into the photoresist pigment business, which is expected to open a second growth curve, with significant market potential in the LCD and semiconductor sectors [7][49] - The company plans to invest 1 billion yuan in a project to produce high-performance organic pigments and related materials, with an expected annual output value of approximately 1.7 billion yuan upon completion [7][58] Group 3 - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 207 million, 275 million, and 427 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.64%, 32.96%, and 55.04% [8][60] - The projected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 25.20 billion, 27.13 billion, and 30.92 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.86%, 7.67%, and 13.96% [8][61] - The company maintains a competitive edge with a gross margin of 21.34% in 2025, which is expected to increase to 25.85% by 2027 [33][61]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of photoresist in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the risks posed by the current reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly Japan, which dominates 90% of the high-end photoresist market. The potential for supply disruptions could severely impact China's semiconductor capabilities, especially in advanced processes below 14nm [2][11][23]. Group 1: Importance of Photoresist - Photoresist is described as an essential material in semiconductor manufacturing, likened to a precision tool that enables the creation of intricate circuit patterns on silicon wafers [4][11]. - The production of high-end photoresist involves complex chemical formulations and stringent manufacturing processes, making it a highly specialized field with significant technical barriers [7][23]. Group 2: Current Market Situation - China's domestic production of high-end photoresist is alarmingly low, with KrF photoresist at 15% and ArF photoresist below 5% [2][11]. - The article outlines various types of photoresist used in semiconductor manufacturing, including G-line, I-line, KrF, ArF, and EUV photoresists, each serving different technological nodes [8][10]. Group 3: Risks of Supply Disruption - The article discusses potential scenarios of supply disruption due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the risk of a comprehensive technology embargo from the U.S. and its allies, which could lead to a halt in semiconductor production in China [27][28][29]. - The impact of such disruptions would be felt across various sectors, including automotive, consumer electronics, and advanced computing, leading to significant economic repercussions [33][34][38]. Group 4: Strategies for Mitigation - The article suggests immediate emergency strategies, such as inventory management, global sourcing through gray channels, and temporary use of lower-performance alternatives to maintain production [42][44][45]. - Long-term strategies include building a self-sufficient photoresist supply chain through national collaboration, technological innovation, and investment in research and development [51][55][58]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that while the current situation poses severe challenges, it also presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its semiconductor industry by investing in domestic capabilities and reducing reliance on foreign technology [62].