周度报告—碳酸锂 去库斜率放缓，关注淡季供需变化 | 走势伴级: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | . | ี | . | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 碳酸锂：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_Summary] ★去库斜率放缓，关注淡季供需变化 上周（12/15-12/19）锂盐价格呈偏强走势。LC2601 收盘价环比 14.4%至 10.97 万元/吨，LC2605 收盘价环比+14%至 11.14 万元/ 吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+3.3%至 9.77、9.51 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比分别+3.9%、+3.5%至 8.63、9.09 万元/吨。电 工价差环比走阔 100 元至 2,600 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级 碳酸锂价格贴水环比缩窄 100 元至 1.14 万元/吨。 上周碳酸锂价格大幅上行，主要的两个交易日的大涨一是来源于 宜春自然资源局公示拟注销 27 宗过期采矿许可证，尽管对实际 基本面无显著影响，但市场对基本面修复的预期日益强化，并对 未来潜在供应释 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced significant price increases, with the main contract rising by 9% to reach a new annual high of 95,200 yuan/ton, driven by strong demand and market sentiment [1][6][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 17, multiple lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, with the main 2601 contract closing at 95,200 yuan/ton, surpassing the previous high of 89,000 yuan/ton from August [1][6]. - Lithium mining stocks surged in the A-share market, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium Energy reaching their daily price limits [1][12]. - The average market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 86,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant increase from the previous quarter's average of 73,000 yuan/ton [12][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman projected that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% in the coming years, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2][5]. - The lithium salt supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025, with a projected demand of 1.55 million tons against a supply capacity of over 1.7 million tons [5]. - Recent data indicated a 4% increase in lithium carbonate demand, driven by the growth in ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate [10]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The lithium carbonate market has shown a tendency for prices to rise, with a notable increase in trading volume and open interest in futures contracts, indicating strong market participation [10][12]. - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium, a key raw material, surged from 61,000 yuan/ton in early October to around 160,000 yuan/ton by November 17, contributing to positive market sentiment [8][10]. - The recent price increases have led to a widening gap between futures and spot prices, necessitating a correction in the market dynamics [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The profitability of domestic lithium salt producers is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, particularly for integrated companies with stable costs [14]. - However, uncertainties remain regarding the sustainability of demand and potential supply adjustments in the coming months [16].

Core Insights - Lithium carbonate futures experienced significant movement, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit, leading to a new annual high of 95,200 yuan/ton for the main 2601 contract, a 9% increase [2][6]. Market Performance - Lithium mining stocks surged in the A-share market, with companies like Dazhong Mining and Shengxin Lithium Energy reaching their daily limits, while Tianqi Lithium returned to a market capitalization of over 100 billion yuan [3]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached an average of 86,200 yuan/ton on November 17, marking an increase of 980 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman indicated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially surpass 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [5][6]. - The lithium salt inventory has been declining for 13 consecutive weeks, with a current level of 120,500 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [7][10]. Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate surged from 61,000 yuan/ton in early October to nearly 160,000 yuan/ton by November 17, contributing to positive market sentiment [8]. - The main 2601 contract has shown strong performance, remaining stable around 86,000 yuan/ton, close to breaking the previous high of 89,000 yuan/ton from August [10]. Future Outlook - For 2025, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 1.45 million tons, with an expected increase to 1.55 million tons due to second-half demand growth, while supply capacity is anticipated to exceed 1.7 million tons, resulting in a surplus of approximately 200,000 tons [6]. - The profitability of domestic lithium salt producers is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, particularly for integrated companies like Tianqi Lithium and Yongxing Materials, which have stable costs [14][15]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - On November 17, the trading volume for lithium carbonate futures doubled to 1.85 million contracts, with total open interest reaching a historical high of 1.118 million contracts [10]. - The recent price surge has led to a widening gap between futures and spot prices, necessitating a correction through either a futures price drop or a spot price increase [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current direction of lithium prices is determined by whether the low inventory of lithium ore collides with the resumption of production expectations and resonates with the downstream. The market has three major variables: lithium ore inventory, the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo, and the downstream production schedule in November. Whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule is the key to the unilateral price movement [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: Domestic lithium concentrate inventory remains low, and the price of spodumene has risen significantly in the past week. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is uncertain. After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the basis has weakened. The social inventory is still high, and the spot market is relatively calm. In the case of tight upstream lithium ore, the production schedule in November is crucial [3]. - **Market Summary**: The market was strong last week. The futures contract price is at an important pressure level, and it is difficult to digest the upward selling pressure without significant marginal changes. The futures market sentiment is high, but the spot price is calm. The basis has weakened significantly, presenting a short - term opportunity in the term market. The unilateral price can go up or down, mainly depending on whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 87,260 tons, the demand was 116,801 tons, the import volume was 20,000 tons, the export volume was 410 tons, and the inventory decreased by 9,951 tons. There was an inventory increase in August and significant inventory reduction in September [6][8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 27,470 tons, the demand was 24,715 tons, the import volume was 800 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 3,645 tons [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price - **Spodumene Import**: In September 2025, the total import volume was 520,514 tons, with an average import price of $684 per ton. Australia was the main source of imports, with an import volume of 347,215 tons and an average price of $734 per ton [13][17]. - **Chinese Lithium Ore**: In September 2025, the output of lithium mica was 8,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24%, and the output of spodumene was 6,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.95%. The lithium mica end still has uncertainties [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price - **Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices**: In the short term, the improvement in demand has boosted the futures price. As of October 24, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan per ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan per ton [26][28]. - **Production Cost and Profit**: The import ore price has risen significantly recently. As of October 24, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68,855 yuan per ton, and the production profit was 9,645 yuan per ton [39][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate Production**: In September 2025, the total production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Lithium辉石 was the main raw material for production [44][53]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The next important node is the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November. As of September 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of lithium salt was 55%, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68% [54][58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, with 6,948 tons from Argentina and 10,797 tons from Chile [59][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, but the overall social inventory is still high [3][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: In September 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,750 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.00% and a month - on - month increase of 12.75%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.00% [70][74]. - **Ternary Materials Production and Capacity Utilization Rate**: In September 2025, the production of ternary materials was 75,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.50% and a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The capacity utilization rate was not provided for this month, but in August it was 48% [75][79]. - **Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume**: In August 2025, the import volume of ternary materials was 5,567 tons, the export volume was 13,352 tons, and the net import volume was - 7,785 tons [80][84]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The report provides data on the production of new energy vehicles, including pure - electric vehicles and plug - in hybrid vehicles, but specific analysis is not provided [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized with oscillations. The prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed. The stabilization of the market was due to the ongoing destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production despite their statements. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream enterprises started pre - holiday stocking, which provided short - term support for prices. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure. The balance sheet shows an average monthly destocking of 3,000 tons in September and October, followed by restocking as demand weakens seasonally. The resumption rhythm of projects will significantly affect the time point of the inventory inflection point [1][11][12]. - The expectation of project resumption puts pressure on the market, but before the actual resumption, the price decline space is limited during the peak season. After the demand inflection point appears, prices may enter a downward channel again under the year - end restocking pressure. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, pay attention to position management, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term, and also focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][13] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Disk Oscillation Stabilization and Pre - holiday Stocking Attention - From September 15 - 19, lithium salt prices oscillated and stabilized. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to 0.06 million yuan/ton [11][12]. - The market stabilized due to the strong reality of destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream pre - holiday stocking provided short - term price support. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure, and the resumption rhythm of projects will affect the inventory inflection point [12]. 3.2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sigma Lithium denied the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The Brazilian Federal Prosecutor's Office (MPF) accused Sigma of ignoring inconsistencies in its 2021 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and not consulting the local community before starting the project, and MPF called for a temporary halt to lithium research and mining projects in the relevant area on September 11 [14]. - On September 12, Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into production in Argentina. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage, and the total annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons after both phases are fully operational [14]. - At the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference on September 17, Zeng Yujun of CATL pointed out that the current intense price competition in the energy storage industry, with the price of energy storage systems dropping by about 80% in three years, has brought quality and safety risks due to cost - cutting. The price war has spread overseas this year, squeezing the gross profit of enterprises and causing the industry to face internal and external competition [15]. - Argentina exported 8,099.95 tons of lithium carbonate in August, of which 6,528 tons were exported to China [15]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Slight Increase in Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased slightly. The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859 US dollars/ton on September 19, up 2.0% from September 12 [12]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: Disk Oscillation Stabilization - The prices of lithium salt futures and spot prices showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose [11][12]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Slight Decline in Quotes - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed slight changes. For example, the spot price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 0.8% week - on - week [12]. 3.3.4. Terminal: Further Increase in the Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the terminal market further increased, reflecting changes in the market demand structure of the new energy vehicle and power battery industries [39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize around 80,000 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025, with potential peaks reaching 85,000 CNY/ton or even 90,000 CNY/ton, driven by a gradual easing of supply-demand imbalances [1] - From 2022 to mid-2025, lithium salt prices experienced a significant decline from over 600,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2022 to 60,000 CNY/ton by June 2025, a drop of over 90% [1] - As of July 2025, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded to approximately 70,000 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% from the June low [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, global lithium battery demand for lithium is projected to increase by approximately 350,000 tons LCE in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [2] - By 2026, global lithium battery demand is expected to reach 1.86 million tons, with an increase of about 370,000 tons, primarily driven by the demand for lithium salts in lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [2] Group 3 - On the supply side, global lithium supply is anticipated to increase by 320,000 tons, reaching 1.65 million tons in 2025, mainly from overseas spodumene mines and salt lakes [6] - Starting in 2024, due to low lithium salt prices, large-scale delays in lithium mining projects are expected, resulting in supply growth rates significantly lagging behind planned expansions and market demand [6] Group 4 - A new cycle of lithium salt price increases is expected to begin in the second half of 2026 due to several factors, including reduced expansion speeds of lithium mines after three years of low prices, government measures to curb disorderly capacity expansion, and strengthened compliance governance in major lithium-producing regions [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 11, 2025, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.68% to 61,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 58,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 60,900 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 66,050 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 110 tons to 32,837 tons [3]. - Lithium ore prices show signs of stopping decline. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June is significant. On the demand side, the preliminary production schedules of various companies show little increase. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Considering that currently, there are no new production cuts at the mine end, and from the domestic production schedule, the oversupply situation will expand further in June. Also, the price performance of lithium ore is relatively lagging. If the price of lithium salt strengthens rapidly, the motivation for production and hedging will reappear, putting further pressure on prices. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - Market rumors led to a rebound in futures prices. The current price is basically at the bottom of the stage, with intensified long-short games. Prices may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 61,680 yuan/ton, up 920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 630 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5%-2.0%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0%-2.5%) was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the prices of lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 6%-7%) and lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 7%-8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery-grade/domestic) was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero-grade/domestic) was 58,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 66,050 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 54,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 8.2 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan to 400 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased by 280 yuan to -2,011.7 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased slightly, while the prices of some remained unchanged. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 40 yuan to 30,445 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) increased by 30 yuan to 28,950 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 40 yuan to 26,650 yuan/ton [5]. - Batteries: The prices of most battery products remained unchanged, while the price of cobalt - acid lithium battery cells decreased by 0.02 yuan/Ah to 5.53 yuan/Ah [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%), lithium mica (2.0%-2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate (6%-7%, 7%-8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: Charts show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][28]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 2024 to June 2025 [36][37][38]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿,外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, prices may oscillate narrowly around 70,000 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of warehouse receipt changes and the downstream production schedule in May. Strategically, a bearish approach is still advised, and short - selling opportunities at the upper edge of the range can be considered [2][3][15] - Recently, there has been a marginal reduction in the supply side. Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, and the monthly average supply reduction in April and May is expected to be about 3,000 - 4,000 tons. The pressure of inventory accumulation may slow down, and there is no new downward driver for prices in the short term [2][3][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side shows marginal reduction, focus on the apparent demand in May - **Price situation**: Last week (04/14 - 04/18), lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. LC2505 closed at 70,300 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase; LC2507 closed at 70,200 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease. SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 0.2% and remained unchanged respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The electric - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate widened slightly [2][12] - **Supply situation**: Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, with the SMM weekly lithium carbonate output decreasing by 574 tons to 17,400 tons. The mine - end quotation is still decreasing, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding effective support at $800 [2][14] - **Warehouse receipt situation**: Last week, the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 639 lots to 29,600 lots. The basis remained strong, and there was no profit from warehouse delivery, resulting in a significantly slower speed of warehouse receipt generation by holders. The LC2505 - LC2507 structure changed to back [3][14] 2. Weekly industry news review - **Production adjustment plan**: Zijin Mining will adjust its lithium project production plan according to the lithium price trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina has basically met the production conditions but is still undergoing technical transformation. The Hunan Xiangyuan hard - rock lithium polymetallic ore is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and the corresponding smelting capacity may be matched in the first half of 2026 [16] - **Mining license transfer**: The mining license of the Bougouni lithium project has been transferred from Future Minerals to Kodal Mining's UK subsidiary. The project is close to completion, and the company expects to start exports in the next quarter [16] - **Company performance**: Zangge Mining's net profit in the first quarter of 2025 was 747 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.18%, while its operating income was 552 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.12% [17] - **Exchange notice**: From the trading time on May 6, 2025, the implementation method of the hedging transaction fee reduction of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [17] 3. Key high - frequency data monitoring of the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The FMB's latest lithium concentrate quotation dropped to $805/ton on Friday, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding support at $800 [2][14] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract approaches the 70,000 - yuan mark again - The closing prices of LC2505 and LC2507 fluctuated, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [2][12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a downward trend [32][39][37] 3.4 Terminal: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly year - on - year in March - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in March increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate also showed a certain trend [40][44][46]