记者丨董鹏 编辑丨巫燕玲 11月17日，碳酸锂期货异动，多个合约集体涨停。 截至当日收盘，主力2601合约上涨9%，最新价升至9.52万元/吨，超过今年8月的高点创出年 内新高。 受此带动，锂矿股也成为当天A股市场的领涨品种，大中矿业、盛新锂能等多只锂矿股涨停的 同时，大涨后的天齐锂业就此重返千亿市值。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 5日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛新锂能 | 35.93 c | 10.01% | 26.38% | | 雅化集团 | 24.98 c | 10.00% | 20.04% | | 中矿 资源 | 69.08 c | 10.00% | 12.99% | | 国城矿业 | 27.74 c | 9.99% | 32.60% | | 美国股份 | 6.28 c | 9.98% | 13.97% | | 天齐锂业 | 62.20 c | 9.87% | 8.16% | | 西藏城投 | 14.25 c | 9.62% | 11.33% | | 永兴材料 | 56.28 c | 8.86% | 10.33% | "如果明年需求增速超过30%，甚至 ...

11月17日，碳酸锂期货异动，多个合约集体涨停。 截至当日收盘，主力2601合约上涨9%，最新价升至9.52万元/吨，超过今年8月的高点创出年内新高。 受此带动，锂矿股也成为当天A股市场的领涨品种，大中矿业、盛新锂能等多只锂矿股涨停的同时，大涨后的天齐锂业就此重返千亿市值。 在此之前，锂价走势一直是投资者最关心的问题，不过鲜有上市公司给予明确回应，而赣锋锂业又作为全球前五的锂业巨头，其掌门人的公开表态影响力巨 大。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 5日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛新理能 | 35.93 c | 10.01% | 26.38% | | 雅化集团 | 24.98 c | 10.00% | 20.04% | | 中矿资源 | 69.08 c | 10.00% | 12.99% | | 国城矿业 | 27.74 c | 9.99% | 32.60% | | 美国股份 | 6.28 c | 9.98% | 13.97% | | 天齐锂业 | 62.20 c | 9.87% | 8.16% | | 西藏城投 | 14.25 c | 9.62% | 11.33% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current direction of lithium prices is determined by whether the low inventory of lithium ore collides with the resumption of production expectations and resonates with the downstream. The market has three major variables: lithium ore inventory, the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo, and the downstream production schedule in November. Whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule is the key to the unilateral price movement [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: Domestic lithium concentrate inventory remains low, and the price of spodumene has risen significantly in the past week. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is uncertain. After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the basis has weakened. The social inventory is still high, and the spot market is relatively calm. In the case of tight upstream lithium ore, the production schedule in November is crucial [3]. - **Market Summary**: The market was strong last week. The futures contract price is at an important pressure level, and it is difficult to digest the upward selling pressure without significant marginal changes. The futures market sentiment is high, but the spot price is calm. The basis has weakened significantly, presenting a short - term opportunity in the term market. The unilateral price can go up or down, mainly depending on whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 87,260 tons, the demand was 116,801 tons, the import volume was 20,000 tons, the export volume was 410 tons, and the inventory decreased by 9,951 tons. There was an inventory increase in August and significant inventory reduction in September [6][8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 27,470 tons, the demand was 24,715 tons, the import volume was 800 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 3,645 tons [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price - **Spodumene Import**: In September 2025, the total import volume was 520,514 tons, with an average import price of $684 per ton. Australia was the main source of imports, with an import volume of 347,215 tons and an average price of $734 per ton [13][17]. - **Chinese Lithium Ore**: In September 2025, the output of lithium mica was 8,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24%, and the output of spodumene was 6,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.95%. The lithium mica end still has uncertainties [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price - **Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices**: In the short term, the improvement in demand has boosted the futures price. As of October 24, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan per ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan per ton [26][28]. - **Production Cost and Profit**: The import ore price has risen significantly recently. As of October 24, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68,855 yuan per ton, and the production profit was 9,645 yuan per ton [39][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate Production**: In September 2025, the total production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Lithium辉石 was the main raw material for production [44][53]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The next important node is the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November. As of September 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of lithium salt was 55%, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68% [54][58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, with 6,948 tons from Argentina and 10,797 tons from Chile [59][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, but the overall social inventory is still high [3][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: In September 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,750 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.00% and a month - on - month increase of 12.75%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.00% [70][74]. - **Ternary Materials Production and Capacity Utilization Rate**: In September 2025, the production of ternary materials was 75,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.50% and a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The capacity utilization rate was not provided for this month, but in August it was 48% [75][79]. - **Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume**: In August 2025, the import volume of ternary materials was 5,567 tons, the export volume was 13,352 tons, and the net import volume was - 7,785 tons [80][84]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The report provides data on the production of new energy vehicles, including pure - electric vehicles and plug - in hybrid vehicles, but specific analysis is not provided [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized with oscillations. The prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed. The stabilization of the market was due to the ongoing destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production despite their statements. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream enterprises started pre - holiday stocking, which provided short - term support for prices. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure. The balance sheet shows an average monthly destocking of 3,000 tons in September and October, followed by restocking as demand weakens seasonally. The resumption rhythm of projects will significantly affect the time point of the inventory inflection point [1][11][12]. - The expectation of project resumption puts pressure on the market, but before the actual resumption, the price decline space is limited during the peak season. After the demand inflection point appears, prices may enter a downward channel again under the year - end restocking pressure. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, pay attention to position management, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term, and also focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][13] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Disk Oscillation Stabilization and Pre - holiday Stocking Attention - From September 15 - 19, lithium salt prices oscillated and stabilized. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to 0.06 million yuan/ton [11][12]. - The market stabilized due to the strong reality of destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream pre - holiday stocking provided short - term price support. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure, and the resumption rhythm of projects will affect the inventory inflection point [12]. 3.2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sigma Lithium denied the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The Brazilian Federal Prosecutor's Office (MPF) accused Sigma of ignoring inconsistencies in its 2021 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and not consulting the local community before starting the project, and MPF called for a temporary halt to lithium research and mining projects in the relevant area on September 11 [14]. - On September 12, Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into production in Argentina. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage, and the total annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons after both phases are fully operational [14]. - At the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference on September 17, Zeng Yujun of CATL pointed out that the current intense price competition in the energy storage industry, with the price of energy storage systems dropping by about 80% in three years, has brought quality and safety risks due to cost - cutting. The price war has spread overseas this year, squeezing the gross profit of enterprises and causing the industry to face internal and external competition [15]. - Argentina exported 8,099.95 tons of lithium carbonate in August, of which 6,528 tons were exported to China [15]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Slight Increase in Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased slightly. The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859 US dollars/ton on September 19, up 2.0% from September 12 [12]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: Disk Oscillation Stabilization - The prices of lithium salt futures and spot prices showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose [11][12]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Slight Decline in Quotes - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed slight changes. For example, the spot price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 0.8% week - on - week [12]. 3.3.4. Terminal: Further Increase in the Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the terminal market further increased, reflecting changes in the market demand structure of the new energy vehicle and power battery industries [39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize around 80,000 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025, with potential peaks reaching 85,000 CNY/ton or even 90,000 CNY/ton, driven by a gradual easing of supply-demand imbalances [1] - From 2022 to mid-2025, lithium salt prices experienced a significant decline from over 600,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2022 to 60,000 CNY/ton by June 2025, a drop of over 90% [1] - As of July 2025, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded to approximately 70,000 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% from the June low [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, global lithium battery demand for lithium is projected to increase by approximately 350,000 tons LCE in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [2] - By 2026, global lithium battery demand is expected to reach 1.86 million tons, with an increase of about 370,000 tons, primarily driven by the demand for lithium salts in lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [2] Group 3 - On the supply side, global lithium supply is anticipated to increase by 320,000 tons, reaching 1.65 million tons in 2025, mainly from overseas spodumene mines and salt lakes [6] - Starting in 2024, due to low lithium salt prices, large-scale delays in lithium mining projects are expected, resulting in supply growth rates significantly lagging behind planned expansions and market demand [6] Group 4 - A new cycle of lithium salt price increases is expected to begin in the second half of 2026 due to several factors, including reduced expansion speeds of lithium mines after three years of low prices, government measures to curb disorderly capacity expansion, and strengthened compliance governance in major lithium-producing regions [10]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 1.68%至 61680 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/ 吨至 60500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/吨至 58900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 300 元/吨至 60900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 300 元/吨至 66050 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存减少 110 吨至 32837 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格有止跌迹象。供应端，周度产量环比增加，6 月产量供应环比增速明显。需求 端，据各家初步排产数据来看增量不显。库存端，周度库存重回增加，下游小幅减少，上游和中间 环节有所增加。综合来看，需要考虑的是，一方面，当前矿山端并未有新的停减产动作，同时，从 国内排产来看，6 月过剩格局将进一步扩大；另一方面，锂矿的价格表现相对滞后，如果锂盐价格 快速走强，生产和套保动力将再次显现，对价格进一步产生压力，就目前来看，锂矿库存已经得到 一定消化。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, prices may oscillate narrowly around 70,000 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of warehouse receipt changes and the downstream production schedule in May. Strategically, a bearish approach is still advised, and short - selling opportunities at the upper edge of the range can be considered [2][3][15] - Recently, there has been a marginal reduction in the supply side. Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, and the monthly average supply reduction in April and May is expected to be about 3,000 - 4,000 tons. The pressure of inventory accumulation may slow down, and there is no new downward driver for prices in the short term [2][3][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side shows marginal reduction, focus on the apparent demand in May - **Price situation**: Last week (04/14 - 04/18), lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. LC2505 closed at 70,300 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase; LC2507 closed at 70,200 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease. SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 0.2% and remained unchanged respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The electric - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate widened slightly [2][12] - **Supply situation**: Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, with the SMM weekly lithium carbonate output decreasing by 574 tons to 17,400 tons. The mine - end quotation is still decreasing, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding effective support at $800 [2][14] - **Warehouse receipt situation**: Last week, the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 639 lots to 29,600 lots. The basis remained strong, and there was no profit from warehouse delivery, resulting in a significantly slower speed of warehouse receipt generation by holders. The LC2505 - LC2507 structure changed to back [3][14] 2. Weekly industry news review - **Production adjustment plan**: Zijin Mining will adjust its lithium project production plan according to the lithium price trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina has basically met the production conditions but is still undergoing technical transformation. The Hunan Xiangyuan hard - rock lithium polymetallic ore is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and the corresponding smelting capacity may be matched in the first half of 2026 [16] - **Mining license transfer**: The mining license of the Bougouni lithium project has been transferred from Future Minerals to Kodal Mining's UK subsidiary. The project is close to completion, and the company expects to start exports in the next quarter [16] - **Company performance**: Zangge Mining's net profit in the first quarter of 2025 was 747 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.18%, while its operating income was 552 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.12% [17] - **Exchange notice**: From the trading time on May 6, 2025, the implementation method of the hedging transaction fee reduction of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [17] 3. Key high - frequency data monitoring of the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The FMB's latest lithium concentrate quotation dropped to $805/ton on Friday, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding support at $800 [2][14] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract approaches the 70,000 - yuan mark again - The closing prices of LC2505 and LC2507 fluctuated, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [2][12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a downward trend [32][39][37] 3.4 Terminal: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly year - on - year in March - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in March increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate also showed a certain trend [40][44][46]