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盘面震荡企稳,关注节前备货
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 11:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized with oscillations. The prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed. The stabilization of the market was due to the ongoing destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production despite their statements. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream enterprises started pre - holiday stocking, which provided short - term support for prices. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure. The balance sheet shows an average monthly destocking of 3,000 tons in September and October, followed by restocking as demand weakens seasonally. The resumption rhythm of projects will significantly affect the time point of the inventory inflection point [1][11][12]. - The expectation of project resumption puts pressure on the market, but before the actual resumption, the price decline space is limited during the peak season. After the demand inflection point appears, prices may enter a downward channel again under the year - end restocking pressure. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, pay attention to position management, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term, and also focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][13] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Disk Oscillation Stabilization and Pre - holiday Stocking Attention - From September 15 - 19, lithium salt prices oscillated and stabilized. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to 0.06 million yuan/ton [11][12]. - The market stabilized due to the strong reality of destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream pre - holiday stocking provided short - term price support. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure, and the resumption rhythm of projects will affect the inventory inflection point [12]. 3.2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sigma Lithium denied the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The Brazilian Federal Prosecutor's Office (MPF) accused Sigma of ignoring inconsistencies in its 2021 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and not consulting the local community before starting the project, and MPF called for a temporary halt to lithium research and mining projects in the relevant area on September 11 [14]. - On September 12, Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into production in Argentina. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage, and the total annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons after both phases are fully operational [14]. - At the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference on September 17, Zeng Yujun of CATL pointed out that the current intense price competition in the energy storage industry, with the price of energy storage systems dropping by about 80% in three years, has brought quality and safety risks due to cost - cutting. The price war has spread overseas this year, squeezing the gross profit of enterprises and causing the industry to face internal and external competition [15]. - Argentina exported 8,099.95 tons of lithium carbonate in August, of which 6,528 tons were exported to China [15]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Slight Increase in Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased slightly. The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859 US dollars/ton on September 19, up 2.0% from September 12 [12]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: Disk Oscillation Stabilization - The prices of lithium salt futures and spot prices showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose [11][12]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Slight Decline in Quotes - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed slight changes. For example, the spot price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 0.8% week - on - week [12]. 3.3.4. Terminal: Further Increase in the Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the terminal market further increased, reflecting changes in the market demand structure of the new energy vehicle and power battery industries [39]
GGII:锂盐价格持续调整 2026H2有望进入新一轮上涨周期
智通财经网· 2025-08-12 10:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize around 80,000 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025, with potential peaks reaching 85,000 CNY/ton or even 90,000 CNY/ton, driven by a gradual easing of supply-demand imbalances [1] - From 2022 to mid-2025, lithium salt prices experienced a significant decline from over 600,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2022 to 60,000 CNY/ton by June 2025, a drop of over 90% [1] - As of July 2025, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded to approximately 70,000 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% from the June low [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, global lithium battery demand for lithium is projected to increase by approximately 350,000 tons LCE in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [2] - By 2026, global lithium battery demand is expected to reach 1.86 million tons, with an increase of about 370,000 tons, primarily driven by the demand for lithium salts in lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [2] Group 3 - On the supply side, global lithium supply is anticipated to increase by 320,000 tons, reaching 1.65 million tons in 2025, mainly from overseas spodumene mines and salt lakes [6] - Starting in 2024, due to low lithium salt prices, large-scale delays in lithium mining projects are expected, resulting in supply growth rates significantly lagging behind planned expansions and market demand [6] Group 4 - A new cycle of lithium salt price increases is expected to begin in the second half of 2026 due to several factors, including reduced expansion speeds of lithium mines after three years of low prices, government measures to curb disorderly capacity expansion, and strengthened compliance governance in major lithium-producing regions [10]
光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250612
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 06:34
碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报(2025 年 6 月 12 日) 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 1.68%至 61680 元/吨。现货价格方面,电池级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/ 吨至 60500 元/吨,工业级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/吨至 58900 元/吨,电池级氢氧化锂(粗颗粒)下 跌 300 元/吨至 60900 元/吨,电池级氢氧化锂(微粉)跌 300 元/吨至 66050 元/吨。仓单方面,昨 日仓单库存减少 110 吨至 32837 吨。 2. 价格方面,锂矿价格有止跌迹象。供应端,周度产量环比增加,6 月产量供应环比增速明显。需求 端,据各家初步排产数据来看增量不显。库存端,周度库存重回增加,下游小幅减少,上游和中间 环节有所增加。综合来看,需要考虑的是,一方面,当前矿山端并未有新的停减产动作,同时,从 国内排产来看,6 月过剩格局将进一步扩大;另一方面,锂矿的价格表现相对滞后,如果锂盐价格 快速走强,生产和套保动力将再次显现,对价格进一步产生压力,就目前来看,锂矿库存已经得到 一定消化。 ...
供应端现边际减量,关注5月表需情况
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-20 12:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, prices may oscillate narrowly around 70,000 yuan. It is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of warehouse receipt changes and the downstream production schedule in May. Strategically, a bearish approach is still advised, and short - selling opportunities at the upper edge of the range can be considered [2][3][15] - Recently, there has been a marginal reduction in the supply side. Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, and the monthly average supply reduction in April and May is expected to be about 3,000 - 4,000 tons. The pressure of inventory accumulation may slow down, and there is no new downward driver for prices in the short term [2][3][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side shows marginal reduction, focus on the apparent demand in May - **Price situation**: Last week (04/14 - 04/18), lithium salt prices fluctuated at a low level. LC2505 closed at 70,300 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase; LC2507 closed at 70,200 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease. SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 0.2% and remained unchanged respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The electric - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate widened slightly [2][12] - **Supply situation**: Some salt factories will conduct maintenance from April to June, with the SMM weekly lithium carbonate output decreasing by 574 tons to 17,400 tons. The mine - end quotation is still decreasing, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding effective support at $800 [2][14] - **Warehouse receipt situation**: Last week, the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 639 lots to 29,600 lots. The basis remained strong, and there was no profit from warehouse delivery, resulting in a significantly slower speed of warehouse receipt generation by holders. The LC2505 - LC2507 structure changed to back [3][14] 2. Weekly industry news review - **Production adjustment plan**: Zijin Mining will adjust its lithium project production plan according to the lithium price trend. The 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina has basically met the production conditions but is still undergoing technical transformation. The Hunan Xiangyuan hard - rock lithium polymetallic ore is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and the corresponding smelting capacity may be matched in the first half of 2026 [16] - **Mining license transfer**: The mining license of the Bougouni lithium project has been transferred from Future Minerals to Kodal Mining's UK subsidiary. The project is close to completion, and the company expects to start exports in the next quarter [16] - **Company performance**: Zangge Mining's net profit in the first quarter of 2025 was 747 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.18%, while its operating income was 552 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.12% [17] - **Exchange notice**: From the trading time on May 6, 2025, the implementation method of the hedging transaction fee reduction of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [17] 3. Key high - frequency data monitoring of the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The FMB's latest lithium concentrate quotation dropped to $805/ton on Friday, and the Australian ore quotation may have difficulty finding support at $800 [2][14] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract approaches the 70,000 - yuan mark again - The closing prices of LC2505 and LC2507 fluctuated, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [2][12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a downward trend [32][39][37] 3.4 Terminal: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly year - on - year in March - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in March increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate also showed a certain trend [40][44][46]