Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/10 - 11/14), lithium salt prices increased with rising positions. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 rose by 6.5% and 6.1% respectively, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5.9%. Lithium hydroxide prices also edged up [1]. - The main reason for the significant increase in the lithium price center last week was concentrated on Monday. Currently, the position volume remains high, and on Friday, some long - position holders took profits, causing the market to oscillate at a high level. The core logic for long - position holders to increase positions at high levels is the strong - reality trading under continuous strong demand and accelerated inventory reduction, as well as the expected cost increase of Jiangxi mica mines after paying the mining right transfer income. There are large differences in the market's expectations for the resumption of production rhythm. Attention should be paid to potential resumption information after the publicity period [2][15]. - In the short term, the lithium price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, and range operation can be maintained. In the medium term, one can look for opportunities to short at high levels after the demand weakens month - on - month and the project resumption rhythm becomes clear [2][15][16] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Chile's October Shipment and Market Supply Game - In October, Chile's lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports increased marginally after the lithium price rose. The market's game on supply has intensified [2][15] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium: The joint development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR in Argentina has made key progress, and the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report" has been obtained. The project plans to submit a large - scale investment promotion system application in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources, with a designed annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons of LCE, to be built in three phases [17]. - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports in October decreased by 85% month - on - month, mainly because Sigma Lithium, the largest lithium spodumene producer in the country, did not export during this period. However, exports this year have increased by about 54% year - on - year [17]. - Core Lithium has increased the ore reserves of Grants and cut the project's capital expenditure by 35 - 45 million Australian dollars. The revised plan also advances the production time of the first batch of ore and increases the Grants ore reserves by 33% [18]. - Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion and will enter the "maintenance" state [18]. - The pilot program for conditional exemption of road transportation of power and energy - storage lithium batteries has been officially launched, which will effectively release compliant transportation capacity and solve the contradiction between the "zero - inventory" production model and the shortage of transportation capacity [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - The spot price of lithium concentrate is strong, with the spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) reaching $1,006/ton on 11/14/25, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [13][20] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Resumption Disturbance - The game of resumption disturbance in the lithium salt market has intensified. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11 tons, mainly contributed by salt lake production, while the production of mica and spodumene decreased marginally. The weekly inventory was 120,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,481 tons. The capacity utilization rate of salt factories is only 60%. After the increase in spodumene port inventory, domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2][15] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Continue to be Strong - Ternary and lithium cobalt oxide continue to be strong. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide have shown an upward trend. For example, the spot average price of ternary material 523 increased by 4.4% month - on - month, and the spot average price of ternary material 622 increased by 9.5% month - on - month [10][13] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in September Reached 50% - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The installed capacity of power batteries maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed a good growth trend [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current direction of lithium prices is determined by whether the low inventory of lithium ore collides with the resumption of production expectations and resonates with the downstream. The market has three major variables: lithium ore inventory, the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo, and the downstream production schedule in November. Whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule is the key to the unilateral price movement [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: Domestic lithium concentrate inventory remains low, and the price of spodumene has risen significantly in the past week. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is uncertain. After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the basis has weakened. The social inventory is still high, and the spot market is relatively calm. In the case of tight upstream lithium ore, the production schedule in November is crucial [3]. - **Market Summary**: The market was strong last week. The futures contract price is at an important pressure level, and it is difficult to digest the upward selling pressure without significant marginal changes. The futures market sentiment is high, but the spot price is calm. The basis has weakened significantly, presenting a short - term opportunity in the term market. The unilateral price can go up or down, mainly depending on whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 87,260 tons, the demand was 116,801 tons, the import volume was 20,000 tons, the export volume was 410 tons, and the inventory decreased by 9,951 tons. There was an inventory increase in August and significant inventory reduction in September [6][8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 27,470 tons, the demand was 24,715 tons, the import volume was 800 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 3,645 tons [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price - **Spodumene Import**: In September 2025, the total import volume was 520,514 tons, with an average import price of $684 per ton. Australia was the main source of imports, with an import volume of 347,215 tons and an average price of $734 per ton [13][17]. - **Chinese Lithium Ore**: In September 2025, the output of lithium mica was 8,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24%, and the output of spodumene was 6,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.95%. The lithium mica end still has uncertainties [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price - **Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices**: In the short term, the improvement in demand has boosted the futures price. As of October 24, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan per ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan per ton [26][28]. - **Production Cost and Profit**: The import ore price has risen significantly recently. As of October 24, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68,855 yuan per ton, and the production profit was 9,645 yuan per ton [39][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate Production**: In September 2025, the total production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Lithium辉石 was the main raw material for production [44][53]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The next important node is the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November. As of September 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of lithium salt was 55%, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68% [54][58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, with 6,948 tons from Argentina and 10,797 tons from Chile [59][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, but the overall social inventory is still high [3][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: In September 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,750 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.00% and a month - on - month increase of 12.75%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.00% [70][74]. - **Ternary Materials Production and Capacity Utilization Rate**: In September 2025, the production of ternary materials was 75,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.50% and a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The capacity utilization rate was not provided for this month, but in August it was 48% [75][79]. - **Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume**: In August 2025, the import volume of ternary materials was 5,567 tons, the export volume was 13,352 tons, and the net import volume was - 7,785 tons [80][84]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The report provides data on the production of new energy vehicles, including pure - electric vehicles and plug - in hybrid vehicles, but specific analysis is not provided [85].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Mining and Production in China - **Key Players**: Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (QSLI) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply Disruption Risks**: The Chinese government is investigating mining rights, which may lead to supply disruptions. Eight lepidolite mines in Yichun need verification as lithium mines, requiring new mining licenses and production permits. The Jianxiawo mine could potentially receive a new license in three months if the process is expedited [1][2][4] 2. **Demand Dynamics**: Battery demand, particularly for energy storage systems, is expected to be stronger than market forecasts. Year-over-year (YoY) growth in lithium demand in China continues to outpace supply growth as of September [2][4] 3. **Inventory Trends**: Lithium carbonate and hydroxide inventories are expected to decline, with downstream producers restocking due to improved demand outlook. Upstream producers are anticipated to destock lithium chemicals [2][4] 4. **CAPEX Trends**: Downstream capital expenditures (CAPEX) from battery producers are outpacing those of lithium producers, indicating a positive medium- to long-term outlook for lithium prices. Increased demand for solid-state batteries is seen as a potential driver for downstream CAPEX expansion [3][4] 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment towards China's lithium sector remains constructive due to strong demand, improved inventory structures, and a mismatch in CAPEX expansion between upstream and downstream sectors. However, there are potential downside risks if supply disruptions are less severe than anticipated [4] Additional Important Insights 1. **Investment Preferences**: The preferred order of investment in lithium companies is Tianqi > Ganfeng - A > QSLI > Ganfeng - H, reflecting varying levels of confidence in their performance [4] 2. **Risks and Opportunities**: - **Downside Risks**: Include weakening lithium demand, less severe supply disruptions, increased CAPEX for current projects, and high acquisition costs for other lithium targets [29][31][33] - **Upside Risks**: Include worse-than-expected supply disruptions, earlier-than-expected demand drivers, quicker expansion of key mines, and lower acquisition costs for lithium targets [30][32][34] 3. **Regulatory Environment**: The ongoing mining rights investigation poses a significant risk to the sector, with potential regulatory changes impacting production and supply dynamics [28][4] 4. **Price Targets and Ratings**: Current price targets for key companies are as follows: - **Tianqi Lithium**: Buy, Rmb 46.24 - **Ganfeng Lithium - A**: Buy, Rmb 48.90 - **Qinghai Salt Lake Industry**: Buy, Rmb 20.71 - **Ganfeng Lithium - H**: Neutral, HK$ 36.82 [45] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the lithium industry in China, highlighting both the opportunities and risks present in the current market landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the potential resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL, which may occur faster than market expectations, leading to significant market reactions in lithium stocks and prices [1][3]. Group 1: Resumption of Operations - CATL's subsidiary is reportedly pushing for the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with expectations that the recovery speed will exceed market predictions [1]. - The mine's supply accounts for approximately 10% of domestic demand, and while its temporary closure had limited impact on supply-demand balance, it did affect monthly inventory levels [2][3]. - The company had submitted an application for the extension of its mining license before its expiration, and the approval process is reportedly progressing smoothly [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news of the potential resumption, lithium stocks and futures experienced a significant decline, with the lithium index dropping by 2.77% on September 10, and all 21 component stocks showing losses [4]. - Carbonate lithium futures saw a notable drop, with the main contract falling to a low of 68,600 yuan per ton, down 4.87% from the previous close [4]. - The market sentiment shifted to a bearish outlook, with many investors expressing concerns about falling lithium prices due to the resumption news [1][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the anticipated resumption, the overall monthly production of lithium has reportedly increased, driven by higher imports of spodumene and domestic processing rates [5]. - Current lithium inventory levels are shifting from traders to lithium salt manufacturers, indicating a transition in the supply chain [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the lithium market may experience a tight balance in the latter half of the year, prices for lithium salts are expected to gradually decline, with a projected range of 65,000 to 75,000 yuan per ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), lithium salt prices first rose and then fell. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased by 8.9% and 9.1% respectively, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise [2][11]. - In July, China imported about 64,100 tons of lithium spodumene equivalent to LCE, a 32% increase from the previous month and a 10% increase from the same period last year. The domestic lithium ore inventory days have declined from the high but are still moderately high, about 4 months [2][14]. - The sharp decline in the futures market last week may be due to the forced liquidation of some high - leverage funds. The impact of increased imports on short - term supply - demand balance is limited. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can provide bottom support, and downstream buying increased after the price correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads [3][14][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply Disturbance Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Gradually Released - Lithium salt prices fluctuated last week. Futures prices decreased, while spot prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][11]. - In July, China's lithium spodumene imports increased significantly. The domestic lithium ore inventory is still at a moderately high level [2][14]. - The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can support prices, and downstream buying is strong. Supply uncertainty remains, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips and positive spread opportunities [3][14][15]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Yichun Yinli of Jiangte Motor will resume production soon [16]. - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased by 42.67% year - on - year, with significant declines from major suppliers such as Chile and Argentina [16]. - Premier African Minerals' Zulu lithium project has achieved a major breakthrough, producing marketable lithium spodumene concentrate and entering the refining optimization stage [16]. - A closed - door meeting on the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen to discuss solutions to over - capacity [17]. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Declined - The spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, with the average price dropping from $940/ton to $934/ton, a 0.6% decline [12]. 3.2 Lithium Salt: Futures Prices Rose and Then Fell - Futures prices of lithium carbonate decreased, with LC2509 down 8.9% and LC2511 down 9.1%. Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5% [2][11][12]. 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium all showed a slight upward trend [12]. 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China increased slightly in July, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a certain growth rate [44][48][50]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约涨 1.68%至 61680 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/ 吨至 60500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价涨 150 元/吨至 58900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 300 元/吨至 60900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）跌 300 元/吨至 66050 元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存减少 110 吨至 32837 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿价格有止跌迹象。供应端，周度产量环比增加，6 月产量供应环比增速明显。需求 端，据各家初步排产数据来看增量不显。库存端，周度库存重回增加，下游小幅减少，上游和中间 环节有所增加。综合来看，需要考虑的是，一方面，当前矿山端并未有新的停减产动作，同时，从 国内排产来看，6 月过剩格局将进一步扩大；另一方面，锂矿的价格表现相对滞后，如果锂盐价格 快速走强，生产和套保动力将再次显现，对价格进一步产生压力，就目前来看，锂矿库存已经得到 一定消化。 ...