碳酸锂周报 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 大大大大 作者：陈琳萱 从业资格证号：F03108575 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 观点小结 | 碳酸锂 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 2月需求排产环比预计下调，只是下调幅度也落在了市场于12月给出的判断内，而抢出口、上游涨价引发的负反馈等预期均未明显体现在2 月的排产数据中，可关注排产与实际产量间是否存在较大差距。而年前在需求旺盛的远期展望下，3月的需求排产给到了显著上调的判断， 使得Q1需求呈现出环比基本持平的态势，因此在2月数据未超预期的情况下，后续3月需求排产的变动或将对期价造成一定扰动。短期在下 | | | | 游未有强负反馈的情况下，价格或仍偏向于震荡偏强态势。此外，近期监管较为严格，关注日内价格振幅，建议投资者谨慎持仓。 | | 碳酸锂现货价格 | 偏多 | 上周电碳现货价格环比上涨8000元/吨至171000元/吨。 | | 月差 | 中性 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in prices due to delays in the resumption of certain lithium mines in Jiangxi, which significantly impacts the annual balance. Caution is advised regarding "resumption" trades compared to "delayed resumption" trades. Short-term forecasts indicate a continued strong oscillation in lithium prices, supported by the supply-demand structure for the year, although strict trading limits on lithium carbonate futures may reduce the emotional pricing of lithium in the future [3][37]. Lithium Carbonate Prices - The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 24,500 yuan/ton to 158,000 yuan/ton week-on-week [3][43]. - The main contract price for lithium carbonate futures peaked at 174,060 yuan/ton but fell to 146,200 yuan/ton by the end of the week, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.94% [41]. Lithium Supply and Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons to 109,679 tons, with specific inventories for smelters, downstream, and others showing respective changes [39][55]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 70 tons week-on-week to 22,605 tons, with production from spodumene, mica, and salt lake sources showing varied changes [4][51]. Lithium Mining and Costs - The cost of externally purchased spodumene increased by 6,204 yuan/ton to 145,372 yuan/ton, while the cost for externally purchased lithium mica rose by 13,154 yuan/ton to 145,930 yuan/ton [5][56]. - The total available inventory of lithium ore at ports decreased week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [13][47]. Demand and Production Outlook - The production of ternary materials decreased by 418 tons week-on-week to 17,635 tons, with a corresponding decrease in inventory [23][59]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate also saw a decline, with a week-on-week reduction of 68 tons to 87,026 tons [40][63]. - The overall battery production is expected to decrease by 6% in January, with specific forecasts for ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries indicating further declines [30][66].

1. Research Views - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 0.72% to 96,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 94,400 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 91,950 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 100 yuan/ton to 82,580 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 770 tons to 8,992 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the change registration (including renewal) of the non - oil and gas mining right for the lithium ore in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County has entered the acceptance stage [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, the output of lithium extracted from spodumene increased by 20 tons to 13,364 tons, the output of lithium from lepidolite increased by 50 tons to 3,021 tons, the output of lithium from salt lakes decreased by 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and the output of lithium from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2,245 tons. According to SMM data, the supply in December is expected to increase by 3% to 98,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased by 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. According to SMM data, the output of ternary materials in December is expected to decline by 7% to 78,280 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% to 409,550 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 115,968 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, inventory in other links increasing by 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - From the perspective of weekly data, the decrease in supply and increase in demand led to the decline of the total inventory turnover days to 26.3 days. However, from the perspective of future market trends, considering the resumption of production expectations and the preliminary downstream production scheduling data, the fundamental situation may show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or inventory accumulation, and the marginal weakening of positive factors. Therefore, there is a relatively large risk in chasing up the current price. Affected by centralized cancellations, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased significantly on November 28, and attention should be paid to the return situation [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on December 2, 2025, and December 1, 2025, including futures prices, lithium ore prices, lithium and lithium salt prices, price spreads, precursor and cathode material prices, and battery prices [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - The report shows the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [10][13]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The report shows the price spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [23][26]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 are shown [30][32]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 10, 2025, to November 27, 2025, are presented [36][38]. 3.7 Production Costs - The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and purchased spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 are shown [40][41]. 4. Research Team Members - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He has long been interviewed by multiple media such as Futures Daily, China Securities Journal, Shanghai Securities News, Securities Times, First Financial, and China Times. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [44]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He is rooted in the domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers. He has also conducted in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure to better serve the risk management of listed companies [45]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/10 - 11/14), lithium salt prices increased with rising positions. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 rose by 6.5% and 6.1% respectively, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5.9%. Lithium hydroxide prices also edged up [1]. - The main reason for the significant increase in the lithium price center last week was concentrated on Monday. Currently, the position volume remains high, and on Friday, some long - position holders took profits, causing the market to oscillate at a high level. The core logic for long - position holders to increase positions at high levels is the strong - reality trading under continuous strong demand and accelerated inventory reduction, as well as the expected cost increase of Jiangxi mica mines after paying the mining right transfer income. There are large differences in the market's expectations for the resumption of production rhythm. Attention should be paid to potential resumption information after the publicity period [2][15]. - In the short term, the lithium price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, and range operation can be maintained. In the medium term, one can look for opportunities to short at high levels after the demand weakens month - on - month and the project resumption rhythm becomes clear [2][15][16] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Chile's October Shipment and Market Supply Game - In October, Chile's lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports increased marginally after the lithium price rose. The market's game on supply has intensified [2][15] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium: The joint development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR in Argentina has made key progress, and the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report" has been obtained. The project plans to submit a large - scale investment promotion system application in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources, with a designed annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons of LCE, to be built in three phases [17]. - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports in October decreased by 85% month - on - month, mainly because Sigma Lithium, the largest lithium spodumene producer in the country, did not export during this period. However, exports this year have increased by about 54% year - on - year [17]. - Core Lithium has increased the ore reserves of Grants and cut the project's capital expenditure by 35 - 45 million Australian dollars. The revised plan also advances the production time of the first batch of ore and increases the Grants ore reserves by 33% [18]. - Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion and will enter the "maintenance" state [18]. - The pilot program for conditional exemption of road transportation of power and energy - storage lithium batteries has been officially launched, which will effectively release compliant transportation capacity and solve the contradiction between the "zero - inventory" production model and the shortage of transportation capacity [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - The spot price of lithium concentrate is strong, with the spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) reaching $1,006/ton on 11/14/25, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [13][20] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Resumption Disturbance - The game of resumption disturbance in the lithium salt market has intensified. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11 tons, mainly contributed by salt lake production, while the production of mica and spodumene decreased marginally. The weekly inventory was 120,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,481 tons. The capacity utilization rate of salt factories is only 60%. After the increase in spodumene port inventory, domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2][15] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Continue to be Strong - Ternary and lithium cobalt oxide continue to be strong. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide have shown an upward trend. For example, the spot average price of ternary material 523 increased by 4.4% month - on - month, and the spot average price of ternary material 622 increased by 9.5% month - on - month [10][13] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in September Reached 50% - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The installed capacity of power batteries maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed a good growth trend [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current direction of lithium prices is determined by whether the low inventory of lithium ore collides with the resumption of production expectations and resonates with the downstream. The market has three major variables: lithium ore inventory, the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo, and the downstream production schedule in November. Whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule is the key to the unilateral price movement [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: Domestic lithium concentrate inventory remains low, and the price of spodumene has risen significantly in the past week. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is uncertain. After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, and the basis has weakened. The social inventory is still high, and the spot market is relatively calm. In the case of tight upstream lithium ore, the production schedule in November is crucial [3]. - **Market Summary**: The market was strong last week. The futures contract price is at an important pressure level, and it is difficult to digest the upward selling pressure without significant marginal changes. The futures market sentiment is high, but the spot price is calm. The basis has weakened significantly, presenting a short - term opportunity in the term market. The unilateral price can go up or down, mainly depending on whether the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November can resonate with the downstream production schedule [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 87,260 tons, the demand was 116,801 tons, the import volume was 20,000 tons, the export volume was 410 tons, and the inventory decreased by 9,951 tons. There was an inventory increase in August and significant inventory reduction in September [6][8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet**: In September 2025, the supply was 27,470 tons, the demand was 24,715 tons, the import volume was 800 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 3,645 tons [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price - **Spodumene Import**: In September 2025, the total import volume was 520,514 tons, with an average import price of $684 per ton. Australia was the main source of imports, with an import volume of 347,215 tons and an average price of $734 per ton [13][17]. - **Chinese Lithium Ore**: In September 2025, the output of lithium mica was 8,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24%, and the output of spodumene was 6,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.95%. The lithium mica end still has uncertainties [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price - **Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices**: In the short term, the improvement in demand has boosted the futures price. As of October 24, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan per ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan per ton [26][28]. - **Production Cost and Profit**: The import ore price has risen significantly recently. As of October 24, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68,855 yuan per ton, and the production profit was 9,645 yuan per ton [39][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate Production**: In September 2025, the total production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Lithium辉石 was the main raw material for production [44][53]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The next important node is the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo in November. As of September 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of lithium salt was 55%, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 68% [54][58]. - **Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, with 6,948 tons from Argentina and 10,797 tons from Chile [59][63]. - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: After the expiration of the LC2510 contract, lithium carbonate warehouse receipts have flowed out, but the overall social inventory is still high [3][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: In September 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,750 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.00% and a month - on - month increase of 12.75%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.00% [70][74]. - **Ternary Materials Production and Capacity Utilization Rate**: In September 2025, the production of ternary materials was 75,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.50% and a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The capacity utilization rate was not provided for this month, but in August it was 48% [75][79]. - **Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume**: In August 2025, the import volume of ternary materials was 5,567 tons, the export volume was 13,352 tons, and the net import volume was - 7,785 tons [80][84]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The report provides data on the production of new energy vehicles, including pure - electric vehicles and plug - in hybrid vehicles, but specific analysis is not provided [85].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Mining and Production in China - **Key Players**: Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (QSLI) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply Disruption Risks**: The Chinese government is investigating mining rights, which may lead to supply disruptions. Eight lepidolite mines in Yichun need verification as lithium mines, requiring new mining licenses and production permits. The Jianxiawo mine could potentially receive a new license in three months if the process is expedited [1][2][4] 2. **Demand Dynamics**: Battery demand, particularly for energy storage systems, is expected to be stronger than market forecasts. Year-over-year (YoY) growth in lithium demand in China continues to outpace supply growth as of September [2][4] 3. **Inventory Trends**: Lithium carbonate and hydroxide inventories are expected to decline, with downstream producers restocking due to improved demand outlook. Upstream producers are anticipated to destock lithium chemicals [2][4] 4. **CAPEX Trends**: Downstream capital expenditures (CAPEX) from battery producers are outpacing those of lithium producers, indicating a positive medium- to long-term outlook for lithium prices. Increased demand for solid-state batteries is seen as a potential driver for downstream CAPEX expansion [3][4] 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment towards China's lithium sector remains constructive due to strong demand, improved inventory structures, and a mismatch in CAPEX expansion between upstream and downstream sectors. However, there are potential downside risks if supply disruptions are less severe than anticipated [4] Additional Important Insights 1. **Investment Preferences**: The preferred order of investment in lithium companies is Tianqi > Ganfeng - A > QSLI > Ganfeng - H, reflecting varying levels of confidence in their performance [4] 2. **Risks and Opportunities**: - **Downside Risks**: Include weakening lithium demand, less severe supply disruptions, increased CAPEX for current projects, and high acquisition costs for other lithium targets [29][31][33] - **Upside Risks**: Include worse-than-expected supply disruptions, earlier-than-expected demand drivers, quicker expansion of key mines, and lower acquisition costs for lithium targets [30][32][34] 3. **Regulatory Environment**: The ongoing mining rights investigation poses a significant risk to the sector, with potential regulatory changes impacting production and supply dynamics [28][4] 4. **Price Targets and Ratings**: Current price targets for key companies are as follows: - **Tianqi Lithium**: Buy, Rmb 46.24 - **Ganfeng Lithium - A**: Buy, Rmb 48.90 - **Qinghai Salt Lake Industry**: Buy, Rmb 20.71 - **Ganfeng Lithium - H**: Neutral, HK$ 36.82 [45] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the lithium industry in China, highlighting both the opportunities and risks present in the current market landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the potential resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL, which may occur faster than market expectations, leading to significant market reactions in lithium stocks and prices [1][3]. Group 1: Resumption of Operations - CATL's subsidiary is reportedly pushing for the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with expectations that the recovery speed will exceed market predictions [1]. - The mine's supply accounts for approximately 10% of domestic demand, and while its temporary closure had limited impact on supply-demand balance, it did affect monthly inventory levels [2][3]. - The company had submitted an application for the extension of its mining license before its expiration, and the approval process is reportedly progressing smoothly [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news of the potential resumption, lithium stocks and futures experienced a significant decline, with the lithium index dropping by 2.77% on September 10, and all 21 component stocks showing losses [4]. - Carbonate lithium futures saw a notable drop, with the main contract falling to a low of 68,600 yuan per ton, down 4.87% from the previous close [4]. - The market sentiment shifted to a bearish outlook, with many investors expressing concerns about falling lithium prices due to the resumption news [1][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the anticipated resumption, the overall monthly production of lithium has reportedly increased, driven by higher imports of spodumene and domestic processing rates [5]. - Current lithium inventory levels are shifting from traders to lithium salt manufacturers, indicating a transition in the supply chain [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the lithium market may experience a tight balance in the latter half of the year, prices for lithium salts are expected to gradually decline, with a projected range of 65,000 to 75,000 yuan per ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - Last week (08/18 - 08/22), lithium salt prices first rose and then fell. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased by 8.9% and 9.1% respectively, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise [2][11]. - In July, China imported about 64,100 tons of lithium spodumene equivalent to LCE, a 32% increase from the previous month and a 10% increase from the same period last year. The domestic lithium ore inventory days have declined from the high but are still moderately high, about 4 months [2][14]. - The sharp decline in the futures market last week may be due to the forced liquidation of some high - leverage funds. The impact of increased imports on short - term supply - demand balance is limited. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can provide bottom support, and downstream buying increased after the price correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads [3][14][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply Disturbance Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Gradually Released - Lithium salt prices fluctuated last week. Futures prices decreased, while spot prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][11]. - In July, China's lithium spodumene imports increased significantly. The domestic lithium ore inventory is still at a moderately high level [2][14]. - The short - term de - stocking fundamentals can support prices, and downstream buying is strong. Supply uncertainty remains, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on dips and positive spread opportunities [3][14][15]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Yichun Yinli of Jiangte Motor will resume production soon [16]. - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased by 42.67% year - on - year, with significant declines from major suppliers such as Chile and Argentina [16]. - Premier African Minerals' Zulu lithium project has achieved a major breakthrough, producing marketable lithium spodumene concentrate and entering the refining optimization stage [16]. - A closed - door meeting on the lithium iron phosphate industry was held in Shenzhen to discuss solutions to over - capacity [17]. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Declined - The spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, with the average price dropping from $940/ton to $934/ton, a 0.6% decline [12]. 3.2 Lithium Salt: Futures Prices Rose and Then Fell - Futures prices of lithium carbonate decreased, with LC2509 down 8.9% and LC2511 down 9.1%. Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.5% [2][11][12]. 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium all showed a slight upward trend [12]. 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China increased slightly in July, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a certain growth rate [44][48][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 11, 2025, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.68% to 61,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 58,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 60,900 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 66,050 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 110 tons to 32,837 tons [3]. - Lithium ore prices show signs of stopping decline. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June is significant. On the demand side, the preliminary production schedules of various companies show little increase. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Considering that currently, there are no new production cuts at the mine end, and from the domestic production schedule, the oversupply situation will expand further in June. Also, the price performance of lithium ore is relatively lagging. If the price of lithium salt strengthens rapidly, the motivation for production and hedging will reappear, putting further pressure on prices. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - Market rumors led to a rebound in futures prices. The current price is basically at the bottom of the stage, with intensified long-short games. Prices may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 61,680 yuan/ton, up 920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 630 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5%-2.0%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0%-2.5%) was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the prices of lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 6%-7%) and lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 7%-8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery-grade/domestic) was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero-grade/domestic) was 58,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 66,050 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 54,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 8.2 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan to 400 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased by 280 yuan to -2,011.7 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased slightly, while the prices of some remained unchanged. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 40 yuan to 30,445 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) increased by 30 yuan to 28,950 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 40 yuan to 26,650 yuan/ton [5]. - Batteries: The prices of most battery products remained unchanged, while the price of cobalt - acid lithium battery cells decreased by 0.02 yuan/Ah to 5.53 yuan/Ah [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%), lithium mica (2.0%-2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate (6%-7%, 7%-8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: Charts show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][28]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 2024 to June 2025 [36][37][38]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿,外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]