1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 14, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.28% to 85,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 950 yuan/ton to 79,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,040 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 21,939 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. In terms of demand, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with upstream destocking and restocking in other and downstream sectors [3]. - Against the background of anti - involution and sustained demand, short - term production suspension has boosted market sentiment. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, and the market may fluctuate in the short term. The production suspension of mines can adjust the supply - demand balance of lithium resources, but the suspension period needs attention. As prices rise, some enterprises may resume production, and overseas imports are expected to increase. Future focus should be on actual lithium salt supply, overseas import increments, terminal customer supply, and potential issues with other mining licenses [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 85,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,480 yuan/ton, down 9,140 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 937 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,300 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,075 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [5]. - Lithium salts and other products: Various lithium salts, lithium hydroxides, and other product prices showed different degrees of increase or remained stable, and there were also corresponding changes in price differences [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium phosphate - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][21]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the price trends of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 2024 to August 2025 [35][37]. 3.7 Production Costs - Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 2% to 82,520 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,500 yuan/ton to 78,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,500 yuan/ton to 75,800 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 69,690 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,440 tons to 20,829 tons [3]. - Yaobao Company's La Negra factory in Chile has resumed operation after an accident last week, and it is currently under investigation in Chile [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons, with lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycled materials all increasing. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons this week, with upstream and other links destocking and downstream restocking [3]. - Against the background of anti - involution and sustained demand, the short - term production suspension issue has boosted market sentiment. After a rapid rise, there may be a correction. The production suspension of mines can adjust the supply - demand balance of lithium resources, but the duration of the suspension is not clear. As prices strengthen, some enterprises start to resume production, and it is expected that overseas imports will gradually increase. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual supply of lithium salts, the increase in overseas imports (with a certain time lag), whether the terminal customer supply decreases, and whether there are subsequent problems with the mining licenses of other mines [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes of lithium carbonate and related products are presented [3]. - Information about the accident and resumption of operation of Yaobao Company's Chilean factory is reported [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory situations in the lithium market are analyzed, and future market trends and points][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A table shows the prices and price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from August 11 - 12, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium salts, and cathode materials. Another part shows the prices of some products from August 1 - 8, 2025, such as battery cells and batteries [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Ore Prices - Charts display the price trends of lithium - related ores like spodumene concentrate, lepid][8]. 3.3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [9][11][13]. 3.3.3 Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between different lithium - related products, such as the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as other spreads and the basis [16][17][18]. 3.3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate [20][22][26]. 3.3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, lithium cobaltate battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [28][30][31]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium carbonate market [32][34][36]. 3.3.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 11, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,600 yuan/ton to 74,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 72,300 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 1,500 yuan/ton to 67,490 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons to 19,389 tons [2]. - CATL suspended mining operations after its mining license for the Yichun project expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, which has little impact on the company's overall operation [2]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 2,288 tons to 19,556 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. The social inventory increased by 692 tons to 142,418 tons this week, with upstream and other links reducing inventory and downstream replenishing inventory [2]. - Against the backdrop of anti - involution and booming demand, short - term production suspension has pushed up market sentiment, driving up prices and volatility. However, the impact of the suspended mines on production is about 10,000 tons of LCE per month, and the suspension time is not clear. As prices rise, some enterprises are resuming production, and overseas imports may also gradually increase [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - **Price Changes**: The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices all increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 560 tons [2]. - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations in Yichun and is applying for a mining license renewal, with little impact on overall operations [2]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation**: Supply increased week - on - week and is expected to rise in August. Demand for cathode materials is expected to increase in August. Social inventory increased, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term production suspension boosts prices, but the impact of suspended mines is limited, and production resumption and increased imports may occur as prices rise [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Mineral Prices**: The main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures, as well as prices of various lithium ores, all increased from August 8 to August 11 [4]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide prices all rose during the same period [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, and the prices of some precursors and cathode materials also increased [4]. - **Cell and Battery Prices**: Most cell and battery prices remained unchanged from August 1 to August 8 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - related ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [5][7]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [8][10][12]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between different lithium products, including battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and others [15][16]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate [20][23][26]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [29][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 2024 to August 2025 [33][35]. - **Production Costs**: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [37][38]. 4. Research Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: The director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and the team has won multiple industry awards [41]. - **Wang Heng**: A non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, and has made contributions in risk management for listed companies [42]. - **Zhu Xi**: A non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel, and has written many in - depth reports [42].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of lithium mining operations in Yichun has raised market concerns, particularly regarding the supply chain and potential impacts on lithium prices and availability [2][3]. Group 1: Event Background - On July 7, Yichun Natural Resources Bureau announced issues with mining rights for eight lithium resource mines, indicating potential delays in reclassification from "ceramic clay" to "lithium mine" [2]. - The mining license for Ningde Times' Jiangxiawo mine is set to expire on August 9, 2025, with other mines' licenses expiring as late as 2027 [2]. - Following the announcement, Ningde Times confirmed the suspension of operations at Jiangxiawo mine, which has a mining capacity of 45 million tons, translating to approximately 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, accounting for about 10% of domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The suspension of Jiangxiawo mine will reduce monthly supply by 0.9 million tons, coinciding with a period when downstream markets are entering a replenishment phase, shifting the supply-demand balance from surplus to shortage [3]. - In August, demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 6%, driven by strong energy storage orders, while supply is anticipated to remain stable or slightly decrease due to the mine's suspension [9]. Group 3: Market Impact Assessment - The current suspension differs from the 2024 production cuts due to heightened market sentiment and increased funding attention, with many investors referencing the price surge in polysilicon [5]. - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, has classified lithium as an independent mineral, leading to expectations of a chain reaction affecting other mines as their licenses expire [7]. - Compared to the 2024 suspension, current inventory levels are higher by 20,000 tons, indicating a different preparedness level in the downstream market [8]. Group 4: Long-term Supply Outlook - Despite short-term supply disruptions, the long-term outlook suggests a continued oversupply in the lithium market from 2025 to 2028, driven by significant planned production capacity and declining costs [20]. - The potential for increased lithium supply remains, with the market expected to see a rise in imports from South America and stable production from spodumene [17]. Group 5: Price Forecast - The recent supply disruptions and recovering demand are expected to lead to a price increase for lithium carbonate, with projections suggesting a price range of 84,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton [23]. - Market sentiment is bullish, with expectations for lithium prices to rise above 100,000 yuan per ton, although caution is advised due to potential supply increases from other regions [25].

年会预告 2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会 暨十五周年庆典&高工金球奖颁奖典礼 主办单位： 高工锂电、高工产研（GGII） 协办单位： 卡洛维德 总冠名： 海目星激光 年会特别赞助： 大族锂电 专场冠名： 欣旺达、英联复合集流体、逸飞激光、华视集团、欧科工业空调 金球奖全程特约赞助： 思客琦 时间&地点： 2025年11月18-20日 深圳前海华侨城JW万豪酒店 会议合作： 陈女士 13560731836（微信同号） 8 月 11 日，宁德时代枧下窝矿区传出停产消息。 宁德时代方面表示，枧下窝矿区采矿资质于 8 月 9 日到期，目前已暂停开采作业，根据有关法律 要求，需要办理延续申请。目前，宜春其他主要矿区还在正常生产经营中。 此前，坊间一直流传着宁德时代枧下窝矿区停产的消息，成为影响近期碳酸锂价格波动的核心原因 之一。 靴子落地后立刻引发市场反应。港股开盘后，锂业股大涨。截至上午 9 点半，永杉锂业竞价涨 停，盛新锂能、威领股份、天齐锂业、融捷股份、永兴材料、赣锋锂业等涨超 5% 。 同时，早盘碳酸锂期货所有合约均触及涨停，其中主力合约开盘直接涨停，涨幅 8% ，报 81000 元 / 吨。 市场分析预计， ...

锂行业专题报告解读 20250703 摘要 碳酸锂价格短期内或反弹至 6.7 万-7 万元/吨，若国内大型锂云母矿停产， 有望突破 7 万元。中长期看，价格中枢预计在 7 万元上下震荡，需求好 时或达 7-8 万元，需求弱时则为 6-7 万元。 当前碳酸锂价格已接近行业成本曲线的 70 分位线和现金成本曲线的 80 分位线，配置锂矿股性价比高。碳酸锂价格每上涨 1 万元，相关股票预 计平均涨幅约 30%。 澳洲部分锂矿因出口价下跌已停产，但未出现大规模停产信号。澳洲锂 辉石矿成本显著下降，但仍高于中国进口价，短期内难见新的停产迹象， 预计 2026 年可能出现更多产能出清。 南美盐湖开发进展缓慢，成本因海外通胀而显著提高，即使是最低成本 的阿卡塔玛盐湖也约为 4 万元/吨，部分项目成本更高，导致企业面临成 本压力。 非洲锂矿成为中资企业重点开发区域，成本已降至 6-7 万元/吨，现金成 本 5-6 万元/吨。尽管当前价格下多数矿山亏损，但头部厂商财务状况良 好，预计将继续投放产能并优化成本。 Q&A 最近碳酸锂期货主力合约价格出现明显反弹的原因是什么？ 短期内碳酸锂价格可能达到多少？ 短期内，碳酸锂价格可能上 ...