Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation shows that China's September exports and imports in US dollars exceeded expectations, with strong growth in industrial robots and wind power exports. The US threatened to impose additional tariffs in retaliation for China's rare - earth controls. Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees slowed, while sulfuric acid prices rose significantly, giving smelters large profit margins and increasing production enthusiasm. New production capacities were released, pushing refined zinc production to a high level. However, the tight overseas zinc ore situation led to an expansion of import losses, a decrease in imported zinc inflows, and an expected opening of the export window. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect was weak, the real - estate sector was a drag, and policy support in the automotive and home - appliance sectors brought some bright spots. Domestic social inventories increased during the holiday, while LME inventories continued to decline, and the spot premium rose. Technically, with stable positions and falling prices, there was a divergence in long - short trading. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 22,220 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread was - 20 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 3,012 dollars/ton, up 27.5 dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest was 210,056 lots, down 2,545 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 7,712 lots, up 1,874 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 58,494 tons, down 1,120 tons. The SHFE inventory was 106,950 tons, up 8,940 tons; the LME inventory was 37,475 tons, down 475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,150 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract was - 10 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread was 201.6 dollars/ton, up 101.15 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,060 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons. The global zinc ore production was 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume was 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory was 153,600 tons, up 17,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets were 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons. The new housing construction area was 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. The automobile production was 2.7524 million vehicles, up 242,400 vehicles; the air - conditioner production was 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 15.73%, down 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 15.73%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.42%, up 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.98%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In September, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. Exports of industrial robots and wind power were strong. Imports of soybeans and iron ore reached record highs for the same period, rare - earth exports decreased by 31% month - on - month, and copper imports reached a new high for the year. The US threatened to impose additional tariffs in retaliation for China's rare - earth controls, and China's Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port dues on US ships, starting on October 14, 2025 [3].

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-09-24 ，下游维持按需采购动作，提货节奏扔较慢，但到货量偏少，国内社库下降，现货升水维持低位；海外LM E库存下降明显，现货升水走高，对锌价构成支撑。技术面，持仓增量价格下滑，空头氛围偏强，跌破2200 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 0关口支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21860 | 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - situation shows that US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have been growing for 11 consecutive months. The market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed from now to the end of the year. In the fundamentals, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, while sulfuric acid prices have risen significantly, giving smelters large profit margins and increasing production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, leading to an expansion of import losses, a decrease in imported zinc inflows, and an approaching export window. On the demand side, the peak season is not prosperous. Galvanized sheet inventory pressure is not high, and the processing enterprise operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, downstream buyers purchase as needed, the trading atmosphere is dull, domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium remains low. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting zinc prices. Technically, open interest has decreased, prices are adjusting, there is a divergence between long and short positions, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 2,984.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,271 lots, up 1,667 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 12,726 lots, down 1,695 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 52,720 tons, up 550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 94,649 tons, up 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 48,975 tons, down 1,175 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,020 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 120 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 41.33 dollars/ton, up 14.57 dollars; the factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons; zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; zinc social inventory is 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.47%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.47%, down 0.28%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.31%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.93%, down 0.12% [3] 3.7 Industry News - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months. The growth was mainly due to back - to - school shopping, with outstanding performances in online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales. After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Fed has been lagging in its response, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut from now to the end of the year [3]

Report Summary - The core contradiction of zinc logic has changed from the expectation of ore supply surplus to the difficult - to - solve internal and external supply - demand contradiction. The growth of ore supply has been realized, but the imbalance between internal and external zinc ingot supply and demand persists [2]. Domestic Zinc Ore Reserve and TC - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative zinc concentrate imports reached 3.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. The cumulative domestic ore production was 2.0677 million metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 60,000 tons. Domestic ore production increase is difficult, and the supply growth is lower than expected. The TC may have limited upward space in the later stage [5][8]. Overseas Zinc Ore Production - According to sample mines, the production in Q1 2025 was 1.136 million tons, and in Q2 it was 1.17 million tons. Assuming 3 unreported mines had the same Q2 output as Q1, the Q2 output would be 1.215 million tons, an increase of about 80,000 tons quarter - on - quarter and 110,000 tons year - on - year. The annual output of major mines in 2025 is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons [5][17]. Domestic Smelting and Supply - From January to August 2025, China's refined zinc production was 4.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In August, the monthly output increased by 28.8% year - on - year, and the expected growth rate in September is over 20%. The smelting profit persists, and the supply pressure remains. Even if the consumption peak season arrives as expected, the social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, with an expected increase of over 200,000 tons in the second half of the year [5][23]. Overseas Supply and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, overseas refined zinc production was 3.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.3%. The expected output in the second half is 3.338 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.9%. Overseas supply is affected by smelting profit and declines, while consumption remains relatively strong. There is a risk of inventory shortage due to continuous inventory depletion. The import and export windows are both closed, and the imbalance between internal and external supply and demand is difficult to resolve in the short term [5][25].

Report Title - "Excess Gradually Appears, Prices Under Pressure, Low Inventory Provides Structural Strategies - 2025 Zinc Futures Semi - annual Market Outlook" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Based on the excess pattern of zinc elements, zinc prices in the second half of 2025 may be high at first and then low. The main operating range of SHFE zinc is estimated to be 20,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is 2,400 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [2][79]. - Supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices. As profit repair drives the restart of high - cost mines and new and expanded mines realize increments, the loosening of zinc ore will continue to be transmitted to smelting volume expansion, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots will gradually emerge, causing prices to fall from high levels [2][79]. - Low inventory levels may limit the smooth decline of prices. Attention can be paid to inter - period positive spreads during traditional consumption peak seasons and internal - external reverse spreads [2][79]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Zinc Price Trend Review - In H1 2025, both domestic and overseas zinc prices showed a step - by - step downward trend. Macro factors had a great impact on price elasticity, monthly spreads, and internal - external ratios [7]. - At the beginning of the year, the liquidity risk of internal and external positions was lifted, premiums were reversed, and some funds priced in the annual supply increment expectation, causing zinc prices to fall continuously from the 25,000 yuan/ton mark [7]. - On February 1, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs, which led to a decline in zinc prices during the Spring Festival. Then the tariff policy was postponed, and market sentiment recovered [7]. - From February to March, zinc prices were in a narrow - range shock pattern due to weak supply and demand [7]. - In early April, zinc prices fell again due to the unexpected intensity of US tariffs, reaching the lowest point so far [7]. - Since mid - April, zinc prices gradually returned to fundamental pricing. Low inventory and supply increment expectations led to a tangled price consolidation [8]. 2. Supply - side As Expected to Increase While Demand Remains Stable, Supply - Demand Excess Gradually Appears 2.1 Zinc Ore Profit Recovery Brings Restart and New Expansion, Transmitted to Smelter Increment - The increase in mine profits drives the restart of high - cost mines. As of Q1 2025, the 90 - percentile cost line of zinc ore is around 2,000 US dollars/ton, and the mine profit margin has reached 46% [19]. - Expansion projects are releasing production capacity in an orderly manner. It is initially estimated that the zinc ore increment in 2025 is 350,000 tons, considering various factors [23]. - Domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, good profits, and production capacity increments, with a clear supply increment expectation. However, the smelting increment from mid - year to Q3 may limit the upward trend of TC [24]. - Overseas smelters are more sensitive to costs and may reduce production. This will affect the internal - external fundamentals and bring internal - external structural arbitrage opportunities [36]. 2.2 Domestic Consumption is Expected to Remain Stable, Overseas Slightly Increase - The real estate sector is expected to continue to drag down zinc consumption by - 18% this year, but the marginal impact of the reduction is decreasing year by year as its proportion in zinc consumption has declined significantly [40]. - The investment structure of infrastructure has changed, and the growth rate of zinc consumption in infrastructure is expected to be about 5% [49]. - In the United States, zinc consumption is expected to continue to increase positively. India's zinc demand is expected to expand at a growth rate of over 5% [52][56]. 3. Multiple Factors Cause a Gap between Apparent Demand and Actual Consumption, Pay Attention to the Term Strategy Guided by Low Visible Inventory - Zinc price fluctuations affect downstream replenishment willingness, which is one of the reasons for the gap between actual demand and apparent demand. The correlation coefficient between downstream raw material inventory and zinc prices is - 0.6 [61]. - The expansion of smelter - integrated zinc alloy production capacity, the increase in the proportion of factory - pickup and direct - delivery, and the cost of social warehouse delivery and pickup are the reasons for the low social inventory level [63]. - Low inventory levels may become the norm in the future, which can provide support for the term structure, especially during the destocking period of traditional consumption peak seasons [71]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2025, there is an excess of zinc ingots in China. The main operating range of SHFE zinc in the second half of 2025 is estimated to be 20,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME zinc is 2,400 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [76][78]. - The investment outlook includes short - selling on rallies or buying put options for single - side trading, inter - period positive spreads, and internal - external reverse spreads during the domestic consumption peak season [2][79].