BullionVault在9月发布报告称，其黄金投资者指数（该指数通过实际交易行为衡量私人投资者情绪）上升至54.9，为6月以来的最高 水平。若黄金买卖双方完全平衡，该指数将为50。 现货黄金周三突破每盎司4010美元关口。如此高位的价格却没有吓退投资者，他们对黄金的兴趣依然浓厚，首次买入黄金的投资者 数量不断增加。 即便美国股市处于接近历史高点的水平，黄金价格仍在上涨。这一现象表明，投资者正通过持有创纪录高位的黄金，为同样处于纪 录高位的股票资产对冲风险。不过，伦敦贵金属交易平台BullionVault的研究主管阿德里安·阿什（Adrian Ash）通过电子邮件向《市 场观察》（MarketWatch）表示，"也有越来越多的热钱在同时推动这两个市场"。 阿什在书面评论中指出，BullionVault作为一家拥有20年运营历史的伦敦贵金属交易平台，除了2008年、2011年和2020年的"全面危 机"时期外，从未像现在这样繁忙。 他表示："雷曼兄弟破产、欧洲债务危机和新冠疫情封锁都是明确且紧迫的紧急事件，催生了对黄金的巨大需求。相比之下，今年 的黄金热潮并未伴随整体金融市场的恐慌情绪。" 9月，Bullion ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable surge in global stock markets driven by investor fear of missing out (FOMO) on transformative opportunities presented by the artificial intelligence revolution, despite facing multiple challenges such as trade disputes and geopolitical risks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market's market capitalization to GDP ratio has reached a historical high, with the FTSE 100 index in the UK also hitting record levels, indicating a state of market euphoria [1]. - Investor reactions to risks have become increasingly muted, suggesting a normalization of responses to threats like tariffs [1]. - The current market environment is compared to historical bubbles, characterized by extraordinary public delusions and collective madness [1][3]. Group 2: AI and Technology Stocks - The AI boom has led to a significant rise in technology stocks, with companies like Nvidia seeing their market value exceed $4 trillion [3]. - There are concerns about market bubbles, with excess liquidity fueling speculative behavior in cryptocurrencies and the accumulation of crypto assets by various companies [3]. Group 3: Emotional Drivers in Investment - The article discusses how FOMO and loss aversion are becoming the primary emotional drivers of investment behavior, overshadowing traditional greed [4]. - Historical lessons from past market crashes, such as the 49% real loss experienced by UK investors during the internet bubble, are cited to emphasize the risks of forgetting past mistakes [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and consider allocating to less exciting assets, particularly as cash has regained real returns post-inflation [7]. - The article suggests that cryptocurrencies should be approached with caution, as their potential losses could be catastrophic, despite the current enthusiasm surrounding them [8]. Group 5: Caution Against FOMO - While AI represents a significant technological advancement, investors are urged to remain vigilant against the excessive influence of FOMO and to return to fundamental analysis and risk assessment [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the remarkable surge in global stock markets this year, driven by investor fears of missing out on transformative opportunities presented by the artificial intelligence revolution, rather than traditional greed [1][5] - The article notes that the current market state is nearing a "floating" condition, with the U.S. stock market's market capitalization to GDP ratio reaching a historical high, and the FTSE 100 index in the UK also hitting record levels [1][3] - There is a growing indifference among investors towards various risks, seemingly accustomed to the trade threats posed by former President Trump [1][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the irrational exuberance in the market, fueled by widespread expectations that AI will fundamentally alter the labor market and capital operations, potentially redefining "humanity" itself [3][4] - It warns that the current market phenomena bear striking similarities to historical bubbles characterized by "extraordinary public delusions and collective madness" [3][4] - The AI boom has led to soaring valuations in tech stocks, with companies like Nvidia reaching a market cap exceeding $4 trillion, raising concerns about market bubble signs [4][6] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that "fear of missing out" has replaced "greed" as the dominant market sentiment, with investors driven more by emotional factors than rational pricing theories [5][6] - Historical lessons from past market bubbles, such as the internet bubble collapse in 2000, which caused a 49% real loss for UK investors, are highlighted to illustrate the potential risks of current market behavior [6][7] - Research indicates that both "fear of missing out" and "fear of loss" are significant emotional drivers of investment behavior, especially during periods of revolutionary change narratives [6][7] Group 4 - The article warns of increasing bubble risks, suggesting that while a financial crisis may not be imminent, the current high valuation environment poses risks that may not yield corresponding risk premium returns [7] - It advocates for portfolio diversification and increasing allocations to "boring" assets, particularly as cash has regained real returns post-inflation [7] - The article advises caution regarding cryptocurrencies, suggesting they should be left to speculators and fraudsters, as historical trends indicate that losses in this area can be devastating [7]

Group 1: Investment Trends - A new generation of wealthy investors, primarily millennials and Gen Z, is skeptical about traditional markets and is increasingly investing in alternative assets such as pre-IPO unicorns, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and collectibles [1][8] - Since 2020, the number of retail clients holding alternative assets at Bank of America has doubled, with approximately 93% of surveyed investors planning to increase their allocation to alternative assets in the future [1][4] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy has lost its appeal due to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, prompting a shift towards alternative investments [2][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Alternative asset supply is rapidly increasing, with 80% of alternative asset managers planning to launch retail-friendly products, nearly double from three years ago [4] - Financial institutions are adapting their offerings, with firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management repackaging elite investment strategies into ETFs and semi-liquid funds for broader distribution [1][4] - The demand for alternative assets is reshaping how Wall Street markets wealth creation products, moving from institutional-only products to those accessible to high-net-worth individuals [1][4] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Many investors are moving away from public markets, driven by a distrust of traditional investment systems, which they perceive as fragile and manipulated [8][9] - The cultural phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is influencing younger investors to seek early-stage investments in technology companies [5][6] - There is a notable divergence in investment preferences among younger investors, with some pursuing high-risk opportunities while others maintain significant cash holdings due to default settings in their investment accounts [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The interplay between investor preferences and product supply is expected to drive a cyclical growth in alternative asset allocations, indicating a potential wave of change in wealth management practices [9] - The trend towards retailization of alternative assets is partly due to traditional buyers being "capital constrained," with individual investors currently allocating only 7% of their investments to alternative assets compared to 20% for large institutions [8][9]