Group 1: Market Overview - Investors are facing challenges from fluctuating inflation expectations, shifts in interest rate policies, and geopolitical changes as they approach the crossroads of the global market in 2025 [1] - Structural stocks represented by certain Hong Kong stocks are becoming important for balancing risk and return in investment portfolios [1] Group 2: Performance of Assets - Digital economy stocks have recorded a 45% increase this year, while traditional cyclical stocks show significant divergence in performance [1] - The recommendation is to establish a foundational position using cross-industry ETFs, complemented by individual stocks from specific sectors to enhance returns [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - With the Federal Reserve's policy rate reaching 5.25%, short-duration bonds are providing a yield protection of 3.8% [2] - Convertible bonds are highlighted for their unique value in a volatile market due to their hybrid characteristics of equity and debt [2] Group 4: Gold and Alternative Investments - Gold is regaining its status as a traditional safe-haven asset amid increased volatility in digital currencies, with physical gold and gold ETFs recommended for risk management and liquidity [2] - Current gold prices are showing strong support around $1950 per ounce, which is linked to mining stocks [2] Group 5: Portfolio Construction Strategy - A "core + satellite" strategy is suggested, with broad-based index products as core assets making up at least 50% of the portfolio [3] - Industry rotation products are recommended to capture excess returns, while alternative assets are advised to mitigate volatility [3] - The combination of various asset types has shown a 38% reduction in annualized volatility compared to a pure equity portfolio over the past three years [3] Group 6: Dynamic Rebalancing - Investors are encouraged to maintain dynamic rebalancing and assess risk exposure of holdings quarterly, especially in interest rate-sensitive assets [3] - Focus on duration-matched products to address potential policy shift risks is emphasized [3]

Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - On August 7, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order allowing alternative assets in 401(k) retirement savings plans, reducing regulatory burdens and litigation risks[1] - As of Q1 2025, Americans held $12.2 trillion in all employer-sponsored defined contribution (DC) retirement plans, with $8.7 trillion in 401(k) plans, indicating significant growth potential for alternative investments[1][20] - The inclusion of alternative assets could open a new opportunity window for the alternative investment market, which has been historically limited by regulatory constraints[1][33] Group 2: Performance and Liquidity of Alternative Assets - Since 2000, private equity has delivered an annualized time-weighted net return of 13%, significantly outperforming publicly listed stocks, which returned 8% during the same period[2][30] - As of December 2023, the net asset value of U.S. private equity and venture capital benchmarks totaled $2 trillion, while REITs held over $4 trillion in total assets, suggesting ample liquidity for alternative investments[2][31] - 43% of alternative investment managers expect over 5% of funds in DC plans to be allocated to alternative assets in the next five years, enhancing liquidity in the alternative investment market[2][31] Group 3: Risks and Costs of Alternative Investments - Alternative assets often exhibit poor liquidity, opaque valuations, and high volatility, presenting greater risks compared to traditional products[2][32] - Private equity funds typically charge higher fees, with a common structure of "2% and 20%", compared to an average fee of 0.26% for mutual funds in 401(k) plans, potentially eroding investor returns[2][32] - The legal and regulatory frameworks for many alternative assets are underdeveloped, increasing uncertainty and potential legal risks for investors[2][32]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional asset allocation logic of the banking wealth management industry is facing challenges due to a low interest rate environment and increased volatility, prompting a shift towards diversified strategies and alternative assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment - The current market is characterized by "low interest rates and high volatility," with a general decline in asset yields. As of May 20, the 1-year and 5-year LPR have decreased by 10 basis points, and the 10-year government bond yield is fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7% [2]. - The volatility in the asset sector is increasing, complicating asset allocation strategies [2]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Financial institutions are transitioning from single asset investments to diversified strategies, focusing on major asset allocation to broaden income sources. The emphasis for the second half of the year will be on alternative and equity assets [1][2]. - Companies like Xinyin Wealth Management are adopting a core strategy of major asset allocation, with a focus on enhancing returns through diversified fixed income and equity assets, while controlling risks [2][3]. Group 3: Asset Class Outlook - Industry insiders are optimistic about the performance of alternative and equity assets in the second half of the year. A balanced allocation of stocks, bonds, and gold is seen as advantageous, with expectations of continued upward movement in asset prices due to low inflation and ample liquidity [3][4]. - Specific sectors such as technology and dividend strategies are expected to remain advantageous, with new consumption driven by policy potentially becoming a source of excess returns [4].

Group 1: Investment Trends - A new generation of wealthy investors, primarily millennials and Gen Z, is skeptical about traditional markets and is increasingly investing in alternative assets such as pre-IPO unicorns, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and collectibles [1][8] - Since 2020, the number of retail clients holding alternative assets at Bank of America has doubled, with approximately 93% of surveyed investors planning to increase their allocation to alternative assets in the future [1][4] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy has lost its appeal due to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, prompting a shift towards alternative investments [2][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Alternative asset supply is rapidly increasing, with 80% of alternative asset managers planning to launch retail-friendly products, nearly double from three years ago [4] - Financial institutions are adapting their offerings, with firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management repackaging elite investment strategies into ETFs and semi-liquid funds for broader distribution [1][4] - The demand for alternative assets is reshaping how Wall Street markets wealth creation products, moving from institutional-only products to those accessible to high-net-worth individuals [1][4] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Many investors are moving away from public markets, driven by a distrust of traditional investment systems, which they perceive as fragile and manipulated [8][9] - The cultural phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) is influencing younger investors to seek early-stage investments in technology companies [5][6] - There is a notable divergence in investment preferences among younger investors, with some pursuing high-risk opportunities while others maintain significant cash holdings due to default settings in their investment accounts [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The interplay between investor preferences and product supply is expected to drive a cyclical growth in alternative asset allocations, indicating a potential wave of change in wealth management practices [9] - The trend towards retailization of alternative assets is partly due to traditional buyers being "capital constrained," with individual investors currently allocating only 7% of their investments to alternative assets compared to 20% for large institutions [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's wealthy clients are increasingly seeking to diversify their investment portfolios by significantly increasing allocations to alternative assets amid market volatility and global trade uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Alternative Assets Demand - UBS's Asia-Pacific President Iqbal Khan noted a strong and growing demand for alternative assets among clients, indicating a shift in investment strategies to mitigate risks [1] - Alternative assets, which include private equity, private credit, hedge funds, real estate, and collectibles, are characterized by lower liquidity and lower correlation with traditional assets, making them valuable during market turmoil [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook and Stagflation Risks - Khan anticipates a continued decline in benchmark interest rates and an increasing likelihood of a stagflation environment, particularly in the U.S. [2] - The recent geopolitical tensions and aggressive U.S. policies have raised concerns among investors about potential stagflation or deep recession risks, contributing to the weakening of dollar assets [2] Group 3: Leadership Changes and Integration Progress - As part of a leadership restructuring in 2024, Khan has been appointed to oversee UBS's Asia-Pacific operations, while Rob Karofsky will manage U.S. operations [3] - UBS has faced challenges following its acquisition of Credit Suisse, including significant layoffs and cost-cutting measures, with a goal of achieving $13 billion in synergies [3] Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - UBS executives express concerns that excessive regulation could undermine Switzerland's competitiveness in the global financial market, with potential implications for the bank's headquarters location [4]

Core Insights - Hong Kong is recognized as a premier global financial hub, particularly in the family office sector, due to its financial strength, strategic location, tax advantages, robust regulatory environment, and comprehensive support ecosystem [1][3] Financial Infrastructure - Hong Kong ranks as the third-largest financial center globally, following New York and London, showcasing unmatched advantages in banking, capital markets, and asset management [3] - The city connects 49 global exchanges and over 50 multinational funds and investment firms, offering thousands of financial products across various asset classes [3] - The financial sector employs over 263,000 people, accounting for 6.8% of total employment and contributing 19.7% to GDP [3] Geographic Advantage - Hong Kong serves as a strategic gateway to China and the Asia-Pacific region, benefiting from its "one country, two systems" policy, which ensures an independent legal and tax system [3] - It is the largest private equity center in Asia, managing assets of $159.6 billion, and a hedge fund center with $69 billion in assets, providing ample investment opportunities for family offices [3] Tax Policies - Hong Kong offers a highly favorable tax environment with no capital gains tax, offshore profits tax, or withholding tax on dividends and interest, and a corporate tax rate of only 16.5% [4] - The introduction of the 2022 Tax (Amendment) (Tax Concessions for Family Investment Control Tools) Ordinance provides tax exemptions for qualifying single family offices with a minimum investment threshold of HKD 2.4 billion [4] - The city has signed double taxation agreements with 43 countries/regions, effectively reducing the tax burden on cross-border investments [4] Regulatory Environment - Hong Kong's common law system and independent judiciary ensure legal transparency and stability, aligning with international standards [4] - The regulatory framework, overseen by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), provides a reliable compliance environment for family offices [4] Supportive Ecosystem - The city features a 24-hour trading system, mature capital markets, and a wide range of professional services, including wealth advisors and legal firms [5] - Family offices in Hong Kong can invest in diverse asset classes such as precious metals, real estate, art, and insurance products, catering to the varied needs of high-net-worth families [5] Industry Growth - As of December 2023, Hong Kong hosts over 2,700 single family offices, nearly double that of Singapore, solidifying its position as a leading family office hub in Asia [5] - The Hong Kong government aims to attract 200 new family offices by 2025, with an expected asset management scale of at least $200 billion [5] - The total assets from family offices and private trusts in Hong Kong's private banking and wealth management sector have reached HKD 17.8 trillion [5] Government Initiatives - The Hong Kong government has introduced various policies to support the development of family offices, including the "Capital Investor Entry Scheme" to attract global family offices [6] - The historical presence of family offices in Hong Kong dates back to the late 19th century, contributing to its status as a major cross-border wealth management center [6] Services Offered - Family offices provide comprehensive services, including investment solutions, estate planning, wealth education, risk management, charitable management, and lifestyle consulting [7][8][9]