智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，全球锡矿新增项目主要集中在2027年及以后，国内主要来自 银漫二期，海外主要来自非洲和欧洲。预计2025-2027年全球锡矿产量分别为28.3/30.8/31.2万吨。半导 体销售同环比仍保持增长，锡的需求预计稳中有升，预计2025-2027年全球需求分别为38.6/39.6/40.1万 吨。2025年全球精锡明显短缺，在资源紧缺和开采成本抬升的作用下，锡价有望进一步上行。 国信证券主要观点如下： 锡是不可或缺的重要小金属，资源稀缺程度逐年加剧 锡具备熔点低、导电导热性较好的特点，且价格相对经济，因此锡焊料一定程度上具备不可替代性，锡 金属是一种不可或缺的重要小金属。截至2024年末全球锡资源储量420万吨，2024年全球锡矿产量30万 吨。由于增储进度比开采进度缓慢，锡的全球储采比从2010年的20年左右下降至2024年的14年，这一储 采比在小金属里属于非常低的水平。全球锡资源储量分布相对集中，中国、缅甸、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、 巴西和玻利维亚锡资源储量分别为100/70/62/46/42/40万吨，前五大资源国储量合计占比76.5%。 预计2025年全球精锡供需约有1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company has exceeded production expectations for tin, zinc, and indium, with total non-ferrous metal production reaching 181,300 tons in H1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [2][3]. - The increase in tin prices, driven by tight supply, has positively impacted the company's gross margin for tin products, which reached 13.23% in H1 2025, up by 0.44 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is enhancing the development of the Kafang mining area, which is expected to increase reserves and production of tungsten and tin, with significant resources identified [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 21.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 billion yuan, up 32.8% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 11.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, reflecting an 18.8% increase year-on-year [1]. Production and Pricing - The company’s production of tin reached 48,100 tons in H1 2025, achieving 53.4% of the annual target, while zinc production was 69,800 tons, also at 53% of the target [2]. - The average price of tin futures was 265,500 yuan per ton in H1 2025, up 5.7% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [2]. Market Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics for tin are favorable, with domestic apparent demand increasing by 5.4% year-on-year to 99,800 tons in the first seven months of 2025 [3]. - The shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support tin prices, enhancing downstream demand [3]. Resource Development - The Kafang mining area has significant untapped resources, including 131,200 tons of copper and 2,130 tons of tungsten, with a planned annual production capacity of 150,000 tons [4]. - The company has received mining quotas for tungsten, indicating ongoing development and potential for increased profitability from this resource [4]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 2.56 billion, 2.73 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan respectively, reflecting positive expectations for tin prices and production growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.2-11.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.52% to 40.03%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 5.21-6.21 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.41% to 24.45% and a year-on-year growth of 9.92% to 31.01% [4][5]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the increase in market prices for tin, copper, and zinc, alongside effective cost reduction measures and production optimization [4][5]. - The company plans to produce 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, and 131,600 tons of zinc in 2025, with Q1 production figures showing 24,200 tons of tin, 24,400 tons of copper, and 33,300 tons of zinc [5]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 48.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.21%. The projected revenues for 2026 and 2027 are 51.90 billion yuan and 54.68 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 7.32% and 5.36% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 23.09 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 59.86%. The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 25.50 billion yuan and 27.38 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.45% and 7.36% [6][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.40 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.55 yuan in 2026 and 1.66 yuan in 2027 [6][10]. Market Conditions - The report notes that while there may be short-term supply disruptions, the long-term price trend for tin is expected to rise due to ongoing demand from the semiconductor industry, which is projected to grow at around 11% globally [6][10]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan to protect shareholder interests, indicating confidence in future growth [5].