Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The nickel market shows a contradiction between macro and mine - end factors, leading to intensified short - term long - short games. The stainless - steel market is suppressed by overseas macro factors but supported by real - world costs [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,160, with a change of 1,610 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,065, up 210 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 537,401, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 326,125 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,500, with a change of 3,050 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,084, down 3 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,300, up 100 from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy Changes**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties. The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [1][7] - **Production and Operation**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota is cut by 70% compared to 2025. The ESDM estimates Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore production to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel ice [2][4][6] - **Accidents and Sanctions**: A landslide occurred in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, causing one death and suspending operations in the affected area. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned [5][6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless - steel markets, stating that for nickel, the accumulation of smelting inventories resonates with the macro - sentiment, and the shortage at the mine end supports the lower limit; for stainless steel, both the fundamentals and the macro - environment exert pressure, while the current cost provides support [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 136,400, down 530 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,120, down 70. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 350,916, a decrease of 52,020, while the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 242,978, an increase of 59,058 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 135,250, down 2,700; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,095, unchanged. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,400, down 50, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,095, unchanged [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Policy - related**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties. The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons. The revision of the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, with the possibility of increasing the nickel production quota by up to 30% [1][4][7] - **Company - related**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months. PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB with an annual production and sales volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction from 2025. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku, Indonesia, were sanctioned [2][4][6] - **Accident - related**: A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area. Sherritt International Corporation scaled back the operation of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is supported by tight supply at the mine end, but the accumulation of smelting inventories limits its upward potential. The stainless - steel market is affected by macro - risk preferences, and the actual cost center has shifted upwards [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 137,140, with a change of 870 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,205, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 381,533, a decrease of 82,914 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 166,882, a decrease of 35,283 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,000, with a change of 200 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,088, with a change of 1 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,450, a decrease of 25 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B roll - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Steel/Zhangpu is 14,950, with no change compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy Changes**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [1] - **Company Operations**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions. The CGN mine is expected to restart between April and May 2026, in line with the restart of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [2] - **Production Quotas**: The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is 12 million tons, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [4][6] - **Accidents**: A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Indonesia on February 18, 2026, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] - **Company Reductions**: Sherritt International Corporation has scaled back the operations of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply, suspending mining operations and putting the processing plant on standby for maintenance [5] - **Sanctions**: The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) has imposed sanctions on four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, and they have been fined according to relevant regulations [6] - **Production Forecast**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) estimates that the nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [6] - **Quota Increase Expectation**: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) says that the revised 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% and is expected to be approved in July [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless - steel markets. For nickel, there are new disturbances from Indonesia, and attention should be paid to speculative risks. For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,360, with a change of 6,010 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,040, with a change of 300 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 518,625, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 263,049 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,750, with a change of 3,750 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,043, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,100, with no change compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - The Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian enterprises face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN has received a preliminary notice to submit a RKAB [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Group 1 - Nickel stocks rose in early trading, with Liqin Resources (02245) up 11.22% at HKD 25.78, Zhongwei New Materials (02579) up 9.14% at HKD 39.16, and Xinjiang Xin Mining (03833) up 4.63% at HKD 2.94 [1] - The price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange closed at 18,785, an increase of 6.7%, while the Shanghai nickel futures closed at 148,930, up 5.6% [1] - Indonesia may approve a nickel ore production quota of approximately 260 million tons by 2026, according to local media citing mining officials [1] Group 2 - CITIC Futures anticipates that the theoretical demand for nickel ore in Indonesia will exceed the currently proposed quota of 260 million wet tons by approximately 15% in 2026, as it is a period of concentrated release of new capacity for Indonesian hydrometallurgical (HPAL) projects [1] - If this quota is implemented, it could lead to significant tightening expectations in the market [1]