Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The nickel market shows a contradiction between macro and mine - end factors, leading to intensified short - term long - short games. The stainless - steel market is suppressed by overseas macro factors but supported by real - world costs [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,160, with a change of 1,610 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,065, up 210 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 537,401, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 326,125 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,500, with a change of 3,050 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,084, down 3 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,300, up 100 from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy Changes**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties. The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [1][7] - **Production and Operation**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota is cut by 70% compared to 2025. The ESDM estimates Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore production to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel ice [2][4][6] - **Accidents and Sanctions**: A landslide occurred in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, causing one death and suspending operations in the affected area. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned [5][6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: The tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while the accumulation of smelting inventory limits price elasticity. In the short - term, trading is mainly based on the current mine - end contradictions, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips relying on the pyrometallurgical cost. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the supply elasticity of the Philippines and the second - round supplementary quota in Indonesia [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center has shifted upwards. In March, it is advisable to try long positions at low levels in the range, while being vigilant about macro risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: Indonesia is implementing various resource management measures, and the APNI Association mentioned a possible 30% quota revision in the middle of the year, which reduces the enthusiasm of speculative funds. In March, the total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore increased by $25 year - on - year to $70, and the integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost rose to 130,000 yuan/ton. If the mine - end contradictions fade in the middle of the year, there may be a logic of hydrometallurgy replacing pyrometallurgical marginal cost [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The conflict between the US and Iran has a negative impact on the global economy. The consumption of stainless steel in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. The market risk preference has decreased, and overseas inflation and interest - rate cut expectations are disturbed. The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel itself is not significant. High - price stimulation has led to an increase in stainless steel production in March, and the cost logic support for stainless steel has shifted upwards [2]. 3.2. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 6, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 4,730 tons to 81,349 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 426 tons to 287,550 tons [3][4]. - **New Energy**: On March 6, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by 0, - 2, 0 month - on - month to 5, 7, 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 13.3 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.1 month - on - month to 7.3 days [4]. - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On March 5, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 10% month - on - month to 133,000 metal tons. In February, the SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.65 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 10%/8%. On March 5, the stainless steel social inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% [4]. 3.3. Market News - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [5]. - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months [5]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons [5]. - Philippine miners said the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [6]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [6]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota was cut by 70% compared with 2025 [7]. - Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated the nickel ore production in 2026 to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of nickel - iron and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [7]. - The APNI Association said the revised RKAB in 2026 may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% and is expected to be approved in July [8]. 3.4. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain, such as the price of 1 imported nickel, the premium of nickel beans, and the price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils [10].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints 2.1 Overall Market Outlook - The stock index futures are expected to have a good start in the Year of the Horse. During the holiday, the overseas market was stable with a slight increase, while the US stocks adjusted due to AI concerns and tariff uncertainties. There were no significant unexpected negative events during the holiday, which has a positive impact on risk appetite. The new US tariff policy may lead to a reduction in tariffs on China. Domestic factors such as holiday travel consumption, box - office revenue, and the rise of the Chinese robot industry, especially the latter, are expected to boost market sentiment and become an important supporting force for the market. Historically, the market style tends to favor technology stocks after the Spring Festival, and the pre - two sessions policy expectations may be traded before the Two Sessions, but there may be a pull - back later [8][9]. 2.2 Commodity Market Analysis - Different commodities have different trends. For example, copper prices are volatile due to increased uncertainty; zinc shows a range - bound trend; lead has a weak supply - demand situation and is range - bound; tin is affected by tariffs; aluminum has a relatively strong sentiment after the festival, while alumina is range - bound; and so on for various other commodities [12][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Tariff Policy - The US Customs and Border Protection will stop collecting the illegally - imposed tariffs from February 24. The suspension of this tariff does not affect other tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The US Senate Democrats will prevent any attempt to extend the tariffs imposed by Trump under Article 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which may lead to the collapse of the tariff system established in Trump's second term [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The focus is on stock index futures, with a high attention level of ★★★★. The market is expected to be strong in the early post - holiday period, and later, attention should be paid to AI narratives, tariff and geopolitical changes, domestic policy directions, and industrial hotspots [8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Base Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainty increases, and prices are volatile. The US stock market declined due to AI concerns and tariff risks, and the US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs. Harmony Gold's new Australian copper mine needs two years of renovation. The global refined copper supply had a surplus of 98,000 tons in December 2025 [15][17]. - **Zinc**: Ranges - bound. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to cancel unilateral tariff measures. Wall Street analysts believe that the effective tariff rate may decline slightly in the second half of the year, and there may be potential tax refunds [18][19]. - **Lead**: Weak supply - demand, range - bound. The US stock market was affected by AI concerns and tariff risks, and the US Customs will stop collecting illegal tariffs [21]. - **Tin**: Affected by tariffs. The price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract decreased by 7.05%, while the London tin 3M electronic disk increased by 1.35%. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs [24]. - **Aluminum**: Strong sentiment after the festival. Alumina is range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The US Democrats will stop the extension of tariffs and promote a mandatory refund plan. Trump may consider military action against Iran [27][29]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Platinum**: Boosted by the strong performance of silver. - **Palladium**: Volatile and slightly strong due to tariff disturbances [31]. 3.3.3 Other Metals - **Nickel**: There is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradiction in nickel ore. The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and some nickel - related projects in Indonesia are facing various situations such as policy adjustments, fines, and monopolistic investigations [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support center has moved up, but off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [35]. 3.3.4 Energy - related Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The report does not directly analyze crude oil, but the impact of geopolitical factors on the energy market is mentioned, which may have an impact on related products such as fuel oil [140]. - **Fuel Oil**: May gap up at the opening, and short - term fluctuations will continue to expand. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [128]. 3.3.5 Chemical Commodities - **PTA and PX**: Supported by costs, with a relatively strong upward trend. During the Spring Festival, the US dollar price of PX increased significantly, and it is expected that the domestic PTA price will gap up at the opening. The polyester industry is expected to enter a positive feedback pattern [73][74]. - **MEG**: Range - bound operation. The overseas ethylene glycol price was stable during the Spring Festival, and the domestic market is expected to remain stable on the first trading day after the festival. The supply - side start - up rate is rising, and there is a large inventory accumulation in February [75]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Commodities - **Palm Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors causing oil price increases, the pre - holiday fundamental logic continues. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean market is stable, and the soybean oil price rebounds within a range [156]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market changed little during the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [162]. - **Soybean**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment, and the price may be slightly strong [162]. - **Corn**: Volatile and slightly strong. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the US corn planting area will decrease in 2026, and the global corn output may decline in the 2026/27 season [165][166]. - **Sugar**: Range - bound consolidation. India's sugar production has increased in the 2025/26 season, and China's sugar import and production data also show certain trends [169][170]. - **Cotton**: Expected to open slightly higher. The domestic cotton spot basis is relatively stable, and the ICE cotton futures first declined and then rebounded during the Spring Festival [174][175]. - **Eggs**: Volatile adjustment [180]. - **Hogs**: The spot price during the holiday was lower than expected [183]. - **Peanuts**: Volatile operation [188]. 3.4 Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) is in a volatile market, and a range - bound trading strategy should be adopted. The supply - side shipping capacity has changed during the Spring Festival, with February remaining stable, March being revised downwards, and April being revised upwards. The demand side has certain differences in the short term, and the European import demand has resilience in the medium - to long - term [130][139][140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless - steel markets. For nickel, there are new disturbances from Indonesia, and attention should be paid to speculative risks. For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,360, with a change of 6,010 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,040, with a change of 300 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 518,625, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 263,049 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,750, with a change of 3,750 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,043, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,100, with no change compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - The Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian enterprises face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN has received a preliminary notice to submit a RKAB [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]