近日，由知名艺人古天乐代言的面部清洁护理连锁品牌"洗脸熊·洗脸吧"（下称"洗脸熊"）被曝广州等 多地门店跑路。 多位消费者反映，无法联系上门店，且会员卡在其他洗脸熊门店无法使用。也有消费者反映，门店前一 天还在发朋友圈宣传，次日便人去楼空，且去其他门店查询后被告知并非会员，即充值的款项没有进入 公司系统，消费者就此质疑门店是否早就想跑路。 针对此事，洗脸熊创始人唐华波向记者表示，对于监管不到位深感自责，将切实维护好消费者的权益。 1月2日，其提供的声明显示，企业高度重视部分消费者反馈的门店闭店导致预付卡退费难等问题，并郑 重向所有受到影响和困扰的消费者致以最诚恳的歉意，诚恳接受社会各界的监督与批评。 洗脸熊在声明中表示，企业第一时间组织专项团队跟进处理此事，经核查，此次涉及闭店且未能妥善处 理退款事宜的门店，系个别门店在未与总部充分沟通并违反合作协议的情况下擅自停业所致。目前，洗 脸熊全国2600余家门店均正常运营，服务未受影响，请广大消费者放心。 洗脸熊表示，针对涉事门店，洗脸熊总部已依据双方签订的合作协议及国家相关法律法规，启动法律追 责程序。目前，相关案件已陆续进入仲裁协调或法院审理阶段。企业将持续跟进 ...

Company Overview - Company has been actively enhancing operational efficiency in the U.S. market, with significant improvements in store efficiency observed [1] - The company aims to create a one-stop shopping experience for families in the U.S., covering a wide range of products including toys, beauty, food, home goods, and gifts [1] - The company possesses advantages in product quality and IP richness [1] Operational Strategy - The company is leveraging AI and data models to drive store management and resource allocation, improving site selection accuracy and single-store operational efficiency [1] - A strategy shift from scattered store openings to clustered openings in strategic areas is being implemented to enhance brand visibility and reduce costs [1] - The company is exploring various store formats in the U.S., planning to open higher-quality stores in Lifestyle Centers and Power Centers [1] Performance Metrics - According to the company's Q2 2025 earnings call, the new store efficiency in the U.S. market is projected to be 1.5 times that of existing stores, with a nearly 30% higher sales per square meter and improved rent-to-sales ratio [1] - The company anticipates a boost in overseas single-store profit margins during the fourth quarter, which is typically a peak season for overseas operations [2] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 is set at 2.9 billion and 3.7 billion respectively, with current Hong Kong and U.S. stocks corresponding to a 17 times 2025 non-IFRS P/E ratio [2] - The company maintains a target price of 56.93 HKD and 29.38 USD for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks respectively, corresponding to a 22 times 2025 non-IFRS P/E, indicating a potential upside of 32% for both [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for the company, Mixue Ice City, to replicate its domestic success in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, while also evaluating the current risk-reward ratio of its stock price after a significant increase post-IPO [1][14]. Group 1: Overseas Market Expansion - Southeast Asia is seen as a primary target for expansion due to its geographical proximity to China, a large Chinese population, and a similar tea culture, making it an attractive market for tea brands [1][5]. - Mixue entered Vietnam in 2018 and Indonesia in 2020, quickly establishing itself as a leading tea brand in both countries by leveraging its supply chain advantages and offering lower prices than local competitors [1][2]. - As of the end of 2024, 80% of Mixue's overseas stores are located in Indonesia and Vietnam, but these markets contribute only about 5% to the company's total revenue, indicating a significant gap compared to other brands like Pop Mart and Miniso, which have higher overseas revenue shares [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Overseas Operations - In 2024, Mixue significantly slowed its overseas store openings, adding only 564 new locations, and experienced nearly 20% negative revenue growth, with same-store sales declining over 30% [5][10]. - The decline is attributed to several factors, including low franchise entry barriers leading to market saturation, poor management oversight, and supply chain issues causing frequent stockouts [7][8][9]. - A notable incident in Indonesia saw a major stockout during Ramadan due to ordering mismanagement, severely impacting sales and franchisee confidence [9]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Despite current challenges, the company is working to improve its supply chain in Southeast Asia, aiming to establish local production facilities to reduce reliance on imports and improve logistics [10]. - The potential for store expansion in Southeast Asia remains significant, with estimates suggesting a possible increase to 15,000 stores based on market conditions, compared to the current number [11][13]. - The company is also enhancing its franchise management and oversight to address issues of franchisee dissatisfaction and operational inefficiencies [10]. Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% in revenue from 2024 to 2029, with profit growth projected at 18% CAGR during the same period, indicating a positive outlook for profitability despite revenue challenges [19][20]. - Current valuations suggest that the stock may be overvalued, with a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 1.4, higher than comparable companies, indicating that the market may have priced in optimistic growth expectations prematurely [22][24]. - Investors are advised to wait for a more favorable valuation before considering investment, particularly as the company approaches a period of stock unlocks that may increase selling pressure [22][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid expansion and unique business model of the tea beverage brand Mixue, which has surpassed Starbucks in the number of stores globally, reaching over 45,000 locations. The brand's success is attributed to its low-cost, high-efficiency supply chain and standardized store operations, allowing it to maintain a high net profit margin despite lower gross margins compared to competitors [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Mixue was founded in 1997, initially selling shaved ice, but pivoted to a low-cost ice cream model with a 1 yuan cone, which became a bestseller. The brand focuses on high-quality, affordable products, with top-selling items priced below 7 yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of sales [3][5]. - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, generating 95% of its revenue from the sale of products and equipment to franchisees, while franchise fees contribute less than 5% [5][6]. Group 2: Business Model and Expansion - Mixue's fixed assets account for 28% of total assets, significantly higher than competitors, indicating a heavy investment in production and logistics to support its franchise model. The company produces 60% of its raw materials in-house, enhancing cost efficiency [6][12]. - The average payback period for franchisees is 14-16 months, shorter than the industry average of 18-24 months, making it an attractive option for potential franchisees [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Mixue has built a vertically integrated supply chain, controlling raw material sourcing, production, and logistics. This includes direct procurement from farms and self-built production facilities, which lowers costs by 20-40% compared to external suppliers [10][15]. - The company employs a standardized operational model, ensuring consistency in product quality and efficiency across its stores. This includes a centralized training program and strict compliance monitoring [16][17]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - In the low-end tea beverage market (priced below 10 yuan), Mixue holds over 30% market share, significantly outpacing local competitors. The brand's efficient supply chain and operational model create a formidable barrier to entry for new players [21][22]. - The high-end and mid-range segments of the market are more fragmented and competitive, with many brands vying for market share, but Mixue's focus on low-cost offerings positions it uniquely in the market [19][20]. Group 5: Brand and Marketing Strategy - Mixue has developed a unique brand identity through its character "Xue Wang," which has become a central element of its marketing strategy. This IP has enhanced customer engagement and brand recognition [22][24]. - The brand's marketing efforts leverage social media and various platforms to promote its character, further solidifying its market presence and consumer loyalty [23][24].