Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The recent market trading hotspots continue to show a profit - making effect. The sectors benefiting from anti - involution policies and themes such as the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station jointly drive the market sentiment to warm up. The trading volume in the two markets has increased, indicating a stronger market consensus in this upward trend. The current popularity of the cyclical sectors continues, and the low - level sub - sectors within them are also expected to catch up. It is recommended to continuously pay attention to the long - position allocation opportunities of stock index futures [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts The macro - economic charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [7][9]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3581.86, up 0.62%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11099.83, up 0.84%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2310.86, up 0.61%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4118.96, up 0.82%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2792.18, up 0.28%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6213.41, up 0.85%; and the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6637.10, up 0.38% [13]. - **Market Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded to 1.9 trillion yuan on that day [2]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: In the futures market, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously. For example, the trading volume of IF was 117,403, an increase of 28,063; the open interest was 267,547, an increase of 16,392. Similar increases were seen in IH, IC, and IM contracts [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures has been significantly repaired. The current IH contract for the current month is at a premium. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract was - 0.16, an increase of 10.85 [2][39]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The report also provides data on the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, including the spread between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month contracts [46][47].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, a significant infrastructure project worth 1.2 trillion, has led to a surge in the capital market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3581 points. This rally is characterized as a "short squeeze" where short-sellers are forced to exit their positions, resulting in many investors missing the opportunity to enter the market [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The recent rally in the market has been driven by specific sectors related to the hydropower station, such as civil explosives, cement, engineering machinery, and coal mining, with some stocks experiencing consecutive daily limit-ups [1][3]. - Despite the index reaching new highs, there has been a continuous net outflow of funds from the market, indicating that the rise in the index does not reflect an influx of new capital [5][7]. Sector Analysis - The current market is characterized by a competition for existing funds rather than an influx of new capital, leading to a situation where new concepts absorb funds from older themes, causing underperformance in previously hot sectors like banking, pharmaceuticals, technology, and robotics [7][8]. - The emergence of new policies may ignite new themes and concepts, potentially diverting funds away from the Yarlung Tsangpo concept, leaving retail investors trapped [8]. Commodity Outlook - Commodities related to infrastructure, such as steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, are highlighted as having potential for continued growth due to their connection to the ongoing infrastructure projects and the government's focus on stabilizing growth in key industries [8][9]. - The recent announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding growth stabilization plans for key industries is expected to benefit over-supplied sectors like steel and coal, improving their profit margins [8][11]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that while the Yarlung Tsangpo project is currently a hot topic, it may not be wise to chase this concept at this stage. Instead, focusing on commodities with longer-term growth potential is recommended, as they are likely to provide more stable investment opportunities [11][12]. - Historical comparisons are made to previous market cycles, indicating that the current environment may resemble past trends where commodities experienced significant price increases over extended periods, suggesting a potential for substantial gains in the coming months [11][12][13].