Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of professional investment analysis and the need for specialized insights in the current financial landscape [1]. Group 1 - The research team at Huachuang Securities is positioned to provide timely exchanges of viewpoints aimed at professional investors [10]. - The materials are intended solely for recognized professional investors and should not be shared with the general public [7][10]. - The analysis and opinions presented may change without notice based on subsequent reports from Huachuang Securities [11].

Market Data Summary - **Commodities**: As of August 8, 2025, among commodities, coking coal had the highest weekly increase of 12.31% at a closing price of 1227.00, while crude oil had the largest decline of -7.22% at 489.80 [2]. - **Equities**: In the A - share market, the CSI 500 rose 1.78% to 6323.50, the SSE 50 increased 1.27% to 2789.17, and the S&P 300 was up 1.23% to 4104.97. Among overseas stocks, the Nasdaq Index climbed 3.87% to 21450.02 [2]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year government bonds declined by -0.51%, -0.88%, and -1.18% respectively, closing at 1.69, 1.41, and 1.55 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased 0.47% to 1.16, while the US dollar index dropped -0.43% to 98.27 [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, faster growth in July's US - dollar - denominated import and export year - on - year growth rates, and the extension of China - US trade negotiations. Bearish factors were the reduction of 800 million shares in ETFs tracking the S&P 300, and domestic economic deflation pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Out of 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were weak July credit data, expected central bank actions to balance funds, and weak US non - farm data. Bearish factors were potential new government bond supply and short - term equity market rebounds [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were high US refinery operating rates, inventory reduction, and OPEC+ under - production in July. Bearish factors were potential US - Russia talks and downward - revised US non - farm data [5]. Agricultural Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were better - than - expected July MPOB data and increasing biodiesel demand. Bearish factors were large Indonesian palm oil inventories and reduced Indian imports [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were the suspension of China - US tariffs, expected domestic policies to boost demand, and weakening US dollars. Bearish factors were increasing global copper inventories and weak domestic demand [6]. Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved processing orders and policy expectations. Bearish factors were weak spot market transactions and high inventory pressure [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were rising Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US non - farm data, and Chinese central bank gold purchases. Bearish factors were a key technical resistance level and potential Fed policy changes [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved market sentiment on coal over - production checks and high iron - water production. Bearish factors were weak real - estate and infrastructure demand [7]. Core View The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodities, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It provides a comprehensive view of different sectors' supply - demand, policy, and macro - economic factors affecting commodity prices [1].

Group 1 - UBS's report indicates that family offices are gradually reducing cash holdings and increasing interest in gold, precious metals, and private debt [1][2] - 19% of global family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region, up 3 percentage points from 2024, with 30% in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting a growing interest in this market [1] - The preference for the Greater China region is attributed to China's robust economic growth, expanding consumer market, and rapid development in technology innovation [1] Group 2 - Family offices are expected to reduce cash allocation to 6% by 2025, reflecting a shift towards assets with growth potential, particularly in developed market equities [2] - Interest in private debt has significantly increased among family offices, aiming to enhance overall portfolio returns through diversification [3] - Approximately one-third of family offices plan to increase allocations to gold and precious metals, indicating a rising demand for risk-hedging assets [3] Group 3 - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, reaching 1249 tons in Q2 2025, driven by strong investment inflows amid geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Family offices are balancing investments between technology stocks and precious metals, indicating a strategy to capture growth opportunities while hedging against risks [4] - The long-term low-interest rate environment is pushing family offices to explore non-traditional investment avenues, including private equity and infrastructure [5] Group 4 - 45% of Middle Eastern family offices plan to increase investments in the Greater China region over the next five years, highlighting the region's growing appeal [7] - China and India are the most focused markets for family offices in the next 12 months, with 39% of Asia-Pacific family offices planning to increase investments in mainland China [7] - Approximately 78% of Asia-Pacific family offices prefer active investment strategies to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [7] Group 5 - The development of family offices in China is driven by rapid economic growth and the need for wealth management tools for succession planning [8] - China's ongoing high-level opening-up policies and the dual drivers of consumption and technology are creating fertile investment opportunities [8] - The current market conditions present opportunities for investors to capitalize on valuation gaps and achieve cost-effective positioning [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 7% since early June, driven by significant changes in funding dynamics and a shift in market risk appetite [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The financing balance surged by 26.5 billion yuan in the week of June 27, reaching a new high since February 2025, indicating a transition from a corrective rebound to a trend-driven market [1]. - The current market rally is characterized by a multi-dimensional funding structure, with contributions from financing funds, quantitative funds, and industrial capital, contrasting with the previous dominance of northbound funds [3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The market's trading focus in July revolves around "anti-involution" and infrastructure, with the former addressing supply-side reforms in overcapacity industries like coal and cement, and the latter focusing on major strategic projects [4]. - The anti-involution sector is seeing intensified policy actions, such as the National Energy Administration's inspection of coal mine production, which has led to significant gains in the coal sector [4]. - The infrastructure sector is primarily centered on the Yajiang Hydropower Project, which has a long construction cycle of 10-15 years, suggesting a medium to long-term investment perspective [5]. Group 3: Technology Sector Opportunities - Despite a temporary lull in the technology sector, the current market conditions are creating significant opportunities due to a decrease in funding congestion and ongoing industrial advancements [5][7]. - The semiconductor sector is poised for a value reassessment, with the STAR 50 Index remaining stagnant while companies like SMIC and Huawei are making technological strides [8][9]. - The AI sector is expected to see a 20-30% increase in domestic AI server shipments due to the release of the H20 chip, with strong visibility in orders for companies like Inspur and Zhongke Shuguang [11]. - The robotics sector is advancing through a structured approach, with significant market growth projected, particularly in humanoid robots, which are expected to reach a market size of 870 billion yuan by 2030 [11]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The current market is primarily trading on anti-involution and infrastructure narratives, which are more medium to long-term in nature. As volatility occurs, funds may shift, making the technology sector, with its lower funding congestion and strong industrial narrative, a preferred focus for future investments [12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market shows signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth, with significant fluctuations in stock indices and bond market stabilization [1][2] - Domestic commodity markets have experienced a decline in consistent bullish sentiment, leading to increased divergence among sectors and products [2][3] - The current market is characterized by a shift from excessive trading expectations to a more rational approach, indicating potential profit-taking and risk management [2][3] Group 2: Commodity Price Dynamics - Futures prices for certain commodities have significantly outpaced spot prices, indicating strong bullish expectations but also accumulating risks of price corrections [3] - The price differentials between near and far-month contracts suggest a softening of optimistic sentiment regarding future price increases [3][4] - Regulatory bodies have issued risk warnings for popular commodities to guide market participants towards more rational trading behaviors [4] Group 3: Stock Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing a rotation of funds from high-performing sectors to lower-performing ones, with technology and consumer sectors gaining attention [10][11] - The infrastructure sector is facing increased pressure, with a notable decline in related indices as market sentiment shifts [9][11] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been strong, driven by large internet companies and positive fund flows [10] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is entering a potential recovery phase, with investors considering long-duration assets amid recent adjustments [8] - The yield on government bonds has seen slight increases, reflecting changes in market risk preferences [6][8] - The overall bond market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring commodity price movements and their implications for interest rates [7][8]

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent market focus has shifted to "anti-involution" and infrastructure sectors, which are more medium to long-term in nature[1] - As of July 21, the financing balance has risen to CNY 1,904.5 billion, approaching the March 20 high of CNY 1,940.2 billion[9] - The bull market atmosphere has led to increased risk-taking among investors, contributing to a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) mentality[9] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to attract funds flowing out of the "anti-involution" and infrastructure sectors due to its solid logic and ongoing industrial narrative[2] - Semiconductor sector is poised for a rebound, with the ChiNext 50 index still undervalued compared to its position at the start of the technology bull market in February[20] - AI sector remains a focal point, with significant advancements and competition, including the anticipated release of GPT-5 this summer[23] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key areas to watch include semiconductors, AI, robotics, and deep-sea technology, which are expected to see strong performance[3] - The domestic GPU companies, such as Moer Thread and Muxi Co., have received IPO approvals, which may enhance market sentiment[20] - The deep-sea technology sector is gaining attention, particularly in relation to military and resource sectors, as highlighted in recent government meetings[28] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of accelerated style rotation in the equity market, which could impact technology investments[31] - Unexpected events in the technology sector could lead to significant changes in investment logic[31]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to significantly boost demand for copper and aluminum, leading to a surge in related sectors such as hydropower, cement, infrastructure, and steel [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector in the Hong Kong stock market saw a substantial increase, with a rise of 3.90% on July 21, 2023, and continued gains of 3.82% the following day [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector, such as China Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper, experienced notable price increases, with China Aluminum rising 6.33% to 6.05 HKD and Jiangxi Copper increasing 5.09% to 16.10 HKD [1] Group 2: Project Impact - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project has a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB and is expected to create significant demand for construction materials, particularly in the cement and steel industries during the construction phase [3][7] - The project will also drive demand for copper and aluminum due to the need for equipment and transmission cables, with an anticipated annual power generation exceeding 300 billion kWh [7][9] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is projected to outperform the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.2% from early 2025 to June 30, 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported by the ongoing transition in the economy, with copper prices being influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the anticipated increase in demand from the renewable energy sector [5][6][7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies directly benefiting from the hydropower project, such as those involved in cable and special copper material manufacturing [9] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in regions with abundant hydropower resources, particularly in electrolytic aluminum and copper smelting projects, as well as in supporting electric grid companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by infrastructure and resource sectors, with significant gains in various stocks, particularly in the hydropower and coal industries [1][2][4][6][8]. Infrastructure Sector - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has been approved, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is six times the annual investment amount in Tibet. This project is expected to significantly boost infrastructure development in the western region and promote clean energy [6]. - Key companies benefiting from this project include China Energy Engineering, China Power Construction, and various construction and engineering firms, with many stocks hitting their daily limit [4][6]. Resource Sector - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huahua Energy reaching their daily limit. The market is reacting to rumors of regulatory changes aimed at stabilizing coal supply [8][10]. - The overall coal market is characterized by strong seasonal demand and tightening supply, with expectations of continued price increases due to high temperatures and increased purchasing activity [10]. Steel Sector - The steel sector is also performing well, with companies like Fangda Special Steel and Xining Special Steel hitting their daily limit. The industry is undergoing supply-side reforms, which are expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the medium to long term [11][13]. - Despite current challenges, the steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing growth [13]. Alcohol Sector - The liquor sector has rebounded, with stocks like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu rising over 5%. The sector is seeing a recovery in valuations as investor sentiment improves [15][17]. - Companies are focusing on market health and inventory reduction, while also planning for international expansion and targeting younger consumers [17].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.54%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.38% [1] - Sectors such as machinery, infrastructure, non-ferrous metals, coal, and lithium batteries saw significant gains, with China Longgong (03339.HK) increasing by over 15% [1] - Conversely, sectors like Apple, domestic banks, and biomedicine performed poorly, with Weishi Jiajie (00856.HK) declining by over 6% [1] Group 2 - CEC International (00759.HK) experienced a remarkable increase of 259% following news of JD.com acquiring Jiabao [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced an overall rise on July 21, driven by positive news, with significant gains in sectors such as building materials, steel, and water conservancy construction [1][4]. A-share Market Performance - The A-share market saw major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high during the session. Key sectors leading the gains included building materials, steel, and construction decoration, with the building materials sector experiencing a surge in stocks hitting the daily limit [3][4]. - Notable stocks in the building materials sector that hit the daily limit included Qingsong Jianhua, Qinglong Pipeline, Guotong Shares, and several cement companies [4]. Conceptual Sector Performance - Conceptual sectors such as water conservancy construction, underground pipelines, and prefabricated buildings showed significant increases. A major project, the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, was inaugurated on July 19, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [5]. Individual Stock Highlights - Aowei New Materials achieved a nine-day limit-up streak, with a cumulative increase of over 400% since July. The company reported a closing price of 33.47 yuan per share, with a current P/E ratio significantly higher than the industry average [8]. - Meibang Shares and Beihua Shares both experienced limit-up for three consecutive trading days, with Meibang reporting a cumulative price increase of over 20% in two days [9]. - Liugang Shares also saw a limit-up for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 74.15% since July 1, significantly outperforming the steel industry index and the Shanghai Composite Index [10][11]. Hong Kong Market Performance - In the Hong Kong market, Dongfang Electric's stock surged, with an intraday increase exceeding 700%. Other sectors related to hydropower and infrastructure also saw substantial gains [2][12][13].