热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 PVC 昨日PVC期货价格大幅上涨，其中PVC主力期货V2605收盘涨幅达3.02%。上涨主要受宏观预期驱动。 宏观层面，李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议强调，要谋划一批能 够带动全局的重大工程、重大项目、重大载体，市场解读为利好基建，提振PVC需求预期。全国住房城 乡建设工作会议12月22-23日在北京召开，部署明年重点工作时会议提到要着力稳定房地产市场。进一 步强化市场情绪。此外，近期金融监管总局与国务院国资委关于化解债务风险、抵制"内卷式"竞争的表 态，共同构筑了偏强的宏观氛围。 基本面层面，PVC近期小幅改善，低估值，易受宏观情绪影响反弹。当前PVC供应端边际电石法企业继 续降负，整体供应小幅下降，但2025年投产使得PVC供应端呈现充裕格局。需求端下游开工受季节性影 响小幅下降，下游逢低采购，盘面反弹成交清淡。出口订单在双节前仍保持韧性。PVC氯碱综合利润受 烧碱及PVC价格小幅反弹有一定修复，但同比仍低位。海外供应出现收缩信息，美国西湖化学批准2025 年12月关闭45 ...

◎年悦 记者 张雪 傍晚的阳光洒在银龙股份天津北辰的厂区，一卷卷银光闪闪的盘条整齐堆叠，犹如巨大的金属漩涡，这 正是这家预应力材料龙头公司的生产原料。这些钢卷在经过多道精密工序后，将被加工成支撑国家重大 基础设施的"隐形脊梁"——预应力钢丝与钢绞线。 从这些"金属漩涡"出发，从专业的预应力材料到智能的轨道板装备，再到新能源领域，银龙股份不断书 写着细分领域龙头的升级之路。近日，上海证券报记者走进银龙股份，探寻公司三十年来的发展历程。 预应力材料：基建的"隐形脊梁" 银龙股份 郭晨凯 制图 走进公司产品展区，一块完整的高铁轨道板实物与剖面模型并排陈列，公司研发的螺旋肋预应力钢 丝，"筋骨"般深植于混凝土中，赋予了其承受高速列车冲击的耐久性与稳定性。 "轨道板作为轨道交通基础设施的关键部件，生产技术与公司深耕多年的预应力材料技术有着天然的联 系。"谢志峰指着一块块轨道板模型说道。 2005年，螺旋肋预应力钢丝在京津城际高铁中首次应用，是公司切入轨道板领域的契机。"我们供应材 料时发现，轨道板的核心技术长期被国外垄断，不仅制约产业发展，更影响到国家基建安全。"谢志峰 回忆道。基于此前技术积累，公司于2012年与铁路 ...

【大河财立方消息】中央经济工作会议对资本市场有何指引？12月11日，招商证券发布研报称，基于中央经济工作会议对明年的 政策定调及各项经济工作安排部署，认为中央经济工作会议对A股明年的投资指引主要包括以下几个方面： （1）从宏观层面来看，政策整体延续了相对积极的政策基调。具体来看，财政政策取向积极，赤字率安排或维持在4%；货币政策 提到了，"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"意味着，在多项货币政策目标中，促进经济发展、物价回 升的优先级较高。明年A股有望继续迎来相对宽松的政策环境。 （2）从产业视角来看，重点关注"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排：本次会议肯定了当前投资增速面临下滑的问题， 部署推动投资止跌回稳。明年是十五五的开局之年，在这样的背景下，重大项目有望成为投资端的主要抓手，建议重点关注重大 项目相关预期。 （3）消费端方面，会议重视了经济中需求相对供给较弱的问题，并提及将制定实施城乡居民增收计划，是积极的信号。但值得注 意的是，今年并未提到"加力扩围"，因此两新政策的资金支持力度可能难以迎来扩张。 （4）从过往市场表现经验来看，会后7天大盘风格往往相对占优。尤其是近5年 ...

Group 1 - The construction and infrastructure industry is currently valued at historical lows, with significant support from funding sources [1] - The issuance of special bonds has reached 90% of the annual quota, and special government bonds have totaled 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong funding support for infrastructure [1] - The construction demand in regions such as Xinjiang and Tibet is noteworthy, reflecting a high level of infrastructure activity in central and western China [1] Group 2 - The Infrastructure ETF (159619) tracks the CSI Infrastructure Index (930608), which selects 50 listed companies involved in infrastructure construction, specialized engineering, engineering machinery, and housing construction [1] - The index primarily focuses on the industrial sector, covering sub-sectors such as infrastructure and specialized engineering, effectively reflecting the development status of China's infrastructure industry [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a total of 79 stocks hitting the daily limit up on November 24, with notable performances in various sectors, particularly aquaculture, photolithography, and 3D printing [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Guofeng New Materials achieved a four-day consecutive limit up in the photolithography sector [1][2]. - Changjiang Materials, associated with 3D printing, recorded a two-day consecutive limit up [1][2]. - The aquaculture sector, specifically Shuiyu Industry, experienced a remarkable seven-day consecutive limit up [1][2]. Group 2: Conceptual Breakdown of Stocks - The following stocks have notable consecutive limit up days: - Sansi Mingchu: 7 days, related to aquaculture [2]. - Guofeng New Materials: 4 days, related to photolithography [2]. - *ST Suwu: 4 days, related to innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. - Meng Tian Home: 4 days, related to home furnishings [2]. - Shida Group: 3 days, related to intelligent computing centers [2]. - Other stocks with 2 days of consecutive limit up include *ST Wanfang (automotive), Te Fa Information (optical communication), and Changjiang Materials (3D printing) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant growth in cargo volume and value through the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, emphasizing its role in enhancing logistics and trade connectivity for various industries, particularly in non-metallic building materials [1][2]. Group 1: Western Land-Sea New Corridor - In the first ten months of this year, the cargo volume and value through the Western Land-Sea New Corridor reached 272,300 TEUs and 48.962 billion yuan, representing increases of 33% and 27% respectively [1][2]. - The transportation network has expanded to cover 127 countries and regions with 581 ports, facilitating trade in over 1,300 product categories, including electronics, vehicles, machinery, and food [1][2]. - The Guangxi Pinglu Canal, which began construction in August 2022, is progressing towards completion by the end of 2026, further enhancing the corridor's capabilities [2]. Group 2: Key Points in Building Materials Sector - The building materials sector is experiencing a downturn, with a notable shift in demand for new homes and public construction, leading to four critical points for recovery: low market share, new demand from existing products, business diversification, and innovation [3]. - Companies like Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby are successfully tapping into new demands, such as second-hand housing and rural revitalization, leading to performance and valuation recovery [3]. - Major players like Nippon Paint and Saint-Gobain are exemplifying business diversification strategies, while companies like Weixing New Materials are focusing on building resilient business models around emerging trends [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Movements - The national average price of cement is 352 yuan per ton, down 74 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [4]. - The average price of float glass is 1,195.35 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease, while the inventory days for key monitored provinces have increased [4]. - The concrete mixing station's capacity utilization rate is at 7.79%, indicating a marginal increase [4].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction index rose by 1.53% this week, outperforming the broader market by 0.21 percentage points, with sectors like clean rooms and chemical engineering showing strong performance [1][4] - High demand in the semiconductor-related clean room sector and the chemical engineering industry chain is recommended for investment, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet where infrastructure growth is expected [1][3] - The clean room sector shows a high level of order backlog, with significant contracts signed by companies like Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration, indicating robust future performance [2][13] - The coal chemical investment landscape is promising, with projected investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan nationally, driven by green energy initiatives and the International Maritime Organization's net-zero emissions framework [3][16][20] - Anticipated infrastructure stimulus in the fourth quarter is expected to benefit the construction sector, with a focus on major transportation projects and regional opportunities in high-growth areas [22][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Investment Opportunities - Focus on the high-demand semiconductor clean room sector, with Yaxiang Integration reporting an order backlog of 6.105 billion yuan and a significant improvement in gross margins [2][13] - The coal chemical sector is projected to see investments of nearly 500 billion yuan in Xinjiang alone, with a national total exceeding 1 trillion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][19] - The fourth quarter is expected to see increased infrastructure spending, with special bonds and long-term treasury bonds being issued at a rapid pace, enhancing investment in construction [22][23] 2. Market Performance Review - The construction index's performance this week reflects a positive trend, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Hainan Development (+27%) and Chongqing Construction (+25%) [4][29] - The clean room engineering sector is highlighted for its low valuation compared to peers, making it an attractive investment opportunity [14][15] 3. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on infrastructure projects in regions with high growth potential, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation, with specific recommendations for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge and China Communications Construction [36][37] - Attention to the nuclear power sector and emerging business directions, with recommendations for companies like Libat and China Nuclear Engineering [38] - The clean room sector is expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends and the demand for new display panel production lines, with a focus on companies like Baicheng Co. and Shenghui Integration [38]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for October decreased to 49.0% from 49.8%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with various sub-indices showing declines in production, new orders, and export orders [2][19]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - The production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous value of 51.9% [2][19]. - The new orders index decreased to 48.8% from 49.7%, while the new export orders index dropped to 45.9% from 47.8% [2][19]. - The employment index slightly declined to 48.3% from 48.5%, and the supplier delivery time index remained stable at 50.0% [2][19]. - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.3% from 48.5%, indicating a reduction in inventory levels [2][19]. Group 2: Export and Construction Insights - The new export orders index at 45.9% suggests potential weakness in exports, but this may be influenced by seasonal factors and fewer working days in October [5][12]. - Despite the drop in the export index, demand from developed countries remains strong, with U.S. consumer spending trends improving [5][12]. - The construction PMI for October was 49.1%, indicating a slight decline, but new orders in the construction sector showed signs of recovery with a business activity expectation index of 56.0% [6][17]. Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI output price index fell to 47.5%, marking 17 consecutive months below the neutral line, while the main raw material purchase price index was at 52.5% [3][20]. - The procurement index decreased to 49.0%, indicating a reduction in purchasing activity, while the finished goods inventory index was at 48.1% [20]. - The construction industry showed a new orders index of 45.9%, which is an improvement compared to the previous year's 43.5% [20][21]. Group 4: Sectoral Expectations - The manufacturing activity expectation index for October was 52.8%, down from 54.1%, while the service sector expectation index remained stable at 56.1% [3][21]. - The construction sector's business activity expectation index increased, reflecting growing confidence among firms in certain industries [3][21]. - Overall, the composite PMI output index was at 50.0%, indicating stability in production activities across sectors [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in Shenzhen's real estate market, effective from September 6, aim to stimulate sales during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" by implementing differentiated controls in core and non-core areas [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Shenzhen's new policy includes the cancellation of purchase limits in non-core areas and the suspension of qualification reviews for home purchases in certain districts [1]. - The differentiation in policy applies to core areas like Futian and Nanshan, while non-core areas like Luohu and Guangming see relaxed restrictions [1]. - The new mortgage rate for first and second homes has been unified, with the lowest rate dropping to 3.05% [1]. Group 2: Market Response - Following the new policy, the number of second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen increased by 14% compared to the same period in August and by 33% year-on-year [3]. - The average daily viewings in real estate agencies rose by 42.9% compared to the beginning of September [3]. - New home project visits increased by approximately 48% and transaction volumes grew by about 60% during the first weekend after the policy implementation [3]. Group 3: Company Performance - In August, major real estate companies reported varying sales figures, with China Overseas Development at 183.3 billion (down 0.7% year-on-year) and China Resources Land at 194.6 billion (up 38.9% year-on-year) [4]. - Greentown China saw a year-on-year increase of 27.7% in sales, reaching 106 billion [4]. - Poly Developments reported a sales decline of 18.5% year-on-year, totaling 180.2 billion [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is seen as crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand [5]. - There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand dynamics [6].

Group 1 - Tianshan Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 10.03%, reaching a latest price of 6.58 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 46.787 billion yuan and a trading volume of 8.86 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a profit contribution of approximately 42 million yuan from the successful delivery of a project in Tunisia, which supports its overseas business expansion and is related to the "Belt and Road" initiative [2] - The anticipated increase in cement demand in Xinjiang due to major projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway and the New Tibet Railway aligns with the company's capabilities in supplying special cement, linking it to infrastructure and regional development themes [2] Group 2 - The company is strictly implementing capacity replacement policies to optimize its production structure, promoting supply-side structural reforms in the cement industry, which is associated with supply-side reform themes [2] - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is primarily involved in sectors related to cement, the Belt and Road initiative, infrastructure, supply-side reform, and green low-carbon concepts [2]