Core Viewpoint - The company reported a record high revenue for Q3 2025, driven by steady growth in core product categories and a strong performance in offline channels, particularly in the snack segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.808 billion yuan, with Q3 revenue reaching 685 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.55%. Net profit for the first three quarters was 173 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 142 million yuan [1]. Product Categories - The core product categories, including fish and meat products, showed steady growth, while the performance of soybean products remained stable. Quail egg products faced temporary pressure due to industry demand fluctuations and channel changes [2]. Channel Strategy - The offline channel maintained stable growth, with the snack channel experiencing a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 50%, becoming a significant growth driver. The online channel faced slight declines due to impacts from new media channels and community group buying [2][3]. Key Products and Market Strategy - The deep-sea anchovy emerged as a leading product in the snack fish segment, benefiting from an enhanced all-channel strategy and increased investment in terminal displays. The company sees potential for further penetration in the market and plans to optimize brand image and product innovation [3]. Cost and Expenses - The slight decline in gross margin was attributed to changes in channel structure, with a shift towards lower-margin offline snack channels. The company is actively expanding overseas supply channels to mitigate raw material cost uncertainties, particularly for anchovies [4]. Sales and Marketing Focus - Increased sales expenses were primarily due to higher brand promotion and personnel costs. The company aims to enhance brand presence through terminal display improvements and plans to maintain market expense investment to boost profitability [4].

根据24 年年报，下调25 年收入、毛利率，上调25 年费用率。公司2025-2027 年每股收益调整为0.42、 0.51、0.58 元（原预测25 年为0.75 元）。结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为2025 年 的40 倍市盈率，对应目标价为16.80元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 To B 业务进展较慢风险、饮料业务竞争激烈风险、水果罐头动销不及预期风险、新工厂产能利用率不 及预期风险、原材料价格大幅上涨风险。 消费疲软，收入略承压。分产品看，椰子汁饮料收入9.64 亿元（同比-3.7%），消费疲软导致增长乏 力；水果罐头收入6.27 亿元（同比-11.5%），其中黄桃、橘子罐头收入分别为2.80 亿元和1.79 亿元，同 比均个位数下滑。零食渠道贡献收入1.15亿元（占比18.3%）。分区域看，华中、华东、西南三大核心 区域收入分别同比-11%/+20%/-5%，华东增长势头良好，此外华南地区在低基数下展现较快增速。截至 24Q4 末，公司经销商数量为2236 家，较H1 末增加294 家，多区域增加渠道合作及产品铺货。 零食占比提升，净利率下滑。2024 年，公司毛利率为34.00%（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.80 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 40 times the earnings per share for 2025 [2][11][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts downward for 2025, while increasing the expense ratio. The earnings per share estimates for 2025-2027 are revised to 0.42, 0.51, and 0.58 CNY respectively, down from an earlier forecast of 0.75 CNY for 2025 [2][11]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.855 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 147 million CNY, down 47.1% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 515 million CNY, a decline of 16.5% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing on core + innovation to break through," aiming to enhance its product offerings and market presence, particularly in the snack channel [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 1,923 million CNY - 2024: 1,855 million CNY - 2025: 2,054 million CNY (10.7% growth) - 2026: 2,308 million CNY (12.4% growth) - 2027: 2,547 million CNY (10.4% growth) [4][10] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Margin: - 2023: 38.7% - 2024: 34.0% (down 4.75 percentage points) - 2025: 36.7% - 2026: 37.3% - 2027: 37.7% [4][10] - Net Profit Margin: - 2023: 14.5% - 2024: 7.9% (down 6.5 percentage points) - 2025: 8.9% - 2026: 9.6% - 2027: 10.0% [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023: 0.64 CNY - 2024: 0.34 CNY - 2025: 0.42 CNY - 2026: 0.51 CNY - 2027: 0.58 CNY [4][10] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: - 2023: 24.4 - 2024: 46.1 - 2025: 37.3 - 2026: 30.6 - 2027: 26.8 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.80 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 40 times the earnings per share for 2025 [2][11][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts downward for 2025, while increasing the expense ratio. The earnings per share estimates for 2025-2027 are revised to 0.42, 0.51, and 0.58 CNY respectively, down from an earlier forecast of 0.75 CNY for 2025 [2][11]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.855 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 147 million CNY, down 47.1% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 515 million CNY, a decline of 16.5% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing on core + innovation to break through," aiming to enhance its product offerings and market reach, particularly in the snack channel [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 1,923 million CNY - 2024: 1,855 million CNY (down 3.5%) - 2025: 2,054 million CNY (up 10.7%) - 2026: 2,308 million CNY (up 12.4%) - 2027: 2,547 million CNY (up 10.4%) [4] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross Margin: - 2023: 38.7% - 2024: 34.0% (down 4.75 percentage points) - 2025: 36.7% - 2026: 37.3% - 2027: 37.7% [4] - Net Profit Margin: - 2023: 14.5% - 2024: 7.9% (down 6.5 percentage points) - 2025: 8.9% - 2026: 9.6% - 2027: 10.0% [4] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023: 0.64 CNY - 2024: 0.34 CNY - 2025: 0.42 CNY - 2026: 0.51 CNY - 2027: 0.58 CNY [4][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: - 2023: 24.4 - 2024: 46.1 - 2025: 37.3 - 2026: 30.6 - 2027: 26.8 [4][11] - Price-to-Book Ratio: - 2023: 4.6 - 2024: 6.0 - 2025: 4.0 - 2026: 3.6 - 2027: 3.3 [4][11]