弱于周期，兴于结构——纺服行业 2025 年度中期投资策 略 20250710 国内渠道成本改善，线下租金费用率下降。综合性服装品牌应关注线下 红利，垂类服装品牌如户外赛道应关注内容营销平台如抖音。安踏布局 运营户外品牌值得关注。 制造行业海外库存周期健康，但关税压制及需求恶化预期可能导致累库。 关税政策影响基本符合预期，制造商承担绝对关税税率在低个位数。未 来投资应关注订单端变化。 下半年品牌端将迎来低基数增厚效应，三季度可投资性最强。推荐贝塔 加阿尔法组合，包括海澜之家和安踏体育。关注三季度后业绩改善显著 且估值偏低的公司，如森马、报喜鸟和比音。 Q&A 今年以来品牌和制造板块的整体表现如何？ 今年以来，品牌端的终端零售表现稳中恢复。一季度录得低单增长，二季度趋 势小幅环比改善。三季度在低基数下，零售端弹性显露出较好的态势。出口端 则相对疲软，纺织品和服装出口增速持平左右。从去年整体来看，制造板块迎 来了去库尾声后的补库景气修复，实现了收入和利润的增长。尤其是利润端因 毛利修复和费用率结余显露出经营杠杆弹性。而品牌则在去年下半年零售承压 及杠杆拖累下出现收入个位数下滑、利润大幅下降。今年一季度品牌零售小幅 ...

内容概要：水果罐头，是以新鲜水果为主要原料，经过加工处理、灌装、排气、密封、加热杀菌、冷却 等工序，达到商业无菌，从而延长食品保质期的一种保鲜食品。近两年来，随着全球经济逐步回升，居 民消费日益增长，以及国内企业海外市场开拓力度增强，我国水果罐头行业呈现稳步增长态势，2024年 已达到103亿元左右。未来，随着消费者健康意识增强，水果罐头制造企业在产品开发、工艺改进、新 包装应用、食品安全和品牌培养等方面不断创新，适应市场多样化的需求，行业发展空间有望拓宽。 相关上市企业：林家铺子（871930）；欢乐家（300997）等 相关企业：大连真心罐头食品有限公司；山东天同食品有限公司；丰岛控股集团有限公司；芝麻官食品 有限公司；临沂奇伟罐头食品有限公司；上海都乐食品有限公司；安徽宿州科技食品有限公司；山东玉 泉食品有限公司；辣妹子食品股份有限公司等 关键词：产业链；水果罐头行业规模；水果罐头出口量；水果罐出口金额；竞争格局；重点企业；发展 趋势 一、行业概况 水果罐头，是以新鲜水果为主要原料，经过加工处理、灌装、排气、密封、加热杀菌、冷却等工序，达 到商业无菌，从而延长食品保质期的一种保鲜食品。根据原材料水果种类 ...

【海天味业6月11日启动香港IPO，基石认购创新高引关注】6月11日，海天味业正式启动全球公开发 售，预计6月19日在香港联交所主板挂牌交易。此次IPO创下年内基石投资者认购规模新高。 全球发售 方案显示，招股最高发售价每股H股36.3港元，折合人民币约33.3元/股，折价率或不到25%。将发行 2.63亿股H股，国际发售2.47亿股，占94%；基石投资者认购1.29亿股，占近50%；香港公开发售1579万 股。 参与认购的基石投资者有高瓴资本、新加坡政府投资公司GIC等8家巨头，认购金额近47亿港元， 成2023年以来基石认购规模第三大港股IPO。国际投行分析师称其为今年港股优质消费类IPO。 海天味 业2014年A股上市，营收从98亿增至269亿，增幅174%。2024年以4.8%市场份额领跑中国调味品行业， 酱油和蚝油全球销量第一。 其产品矩阵完善，有1400余个SKU，7个单品年销超10亿。把握健康化趋 势，有机系列和低糖/低脂/低盐系列成明星单品。 2024年研发投入8.4亿创新高，近五年累计超38亿。 2025年初获评全球首家酱油酿造"灯塔工厂"。 路演获投资者好评，投资机构称其竞争壁垒强、财务表 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitan Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its international presence and capitalize on the growing demand for condiments both domestically and globally [2][14]. Company Core Advantages - The company boasts a rich history of over 400 years as a "Chinese Time-honored Brand," leading in brand value within the industry. It ranks first in soy sauce, sauces, oyster sauce, and vinegar categories according to the C-BPI 2024 brand index [3]. - Haitan has developed a comprehensive product matrix with over 1,000 SKUs, covering household consumption, catering customization, and food processing [4]. Production Capacity and Smart Manufacturing - Haitan operates four major production bases across China, achieving a production capacity exceeding 4.5 million tons in 2024, maintaining its industry leadership. Its factory in Guangdong has been recognized as a "Lighthouse Factory" by the World Economic Forum, showcasing advanced manufacturing capabilities [5]. Channel Network and Digital Capabilities - The company has a nationwide sales network reaching nearly 100% of city-level and about 90% of county-level markets, with over 6,700 distributors. Online sales have surged, with a 39.78% year-on-year increase in 2024, reaching 1.243 billion yuan [6]. Industry Development Prospects - The condiment market in China is projected to grow from 479.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 699.8 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%. This growth is driven by the recovery of the catering industry, consumption upgrades, and the development of the food processing sector [8]. - The global condiment market is expected to increase from 2.1 trillion yuan in 2023 to nearly 2.9 trillion yuan by 2029, with a CAGR of 6.2% [9]. Consumption Upgrade and Health Trends - The Chinese condiment market is experiencing a shift towards higher quality and differentiated products, with increasing demand for organic and health-oriented options. Haitan is responding by launching zero-additive and organic products [13]. Industry Consolidation and Concentration - The Chinese condiment industry has a low market concentration, with the top five companies holding only 10.9% of the market share, compared to 24.0% in the U.S. and 28.5% in Japan. Haitan's IPO is a strategic move to enhance its global brand image and attract international capital [14]. Competitive Advantages and Barriers - Haitan holds a 17% market share in the Chinese condiment industry, significantly outperforming competitors like Lee Kum Kee and Qianhe. The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26.901 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan in 2024 [15]. R&D Investment and Technical Barriers - In 2024, Haitan plans to invest 840 million yuan in R&D, focusing on salt reduction and organic technology, with over 500 authorized patents in fermentation technology and brewing equipment [16]. Cost Control and Supply Chain Resilience - Haitan's cost advantages stem from large-scale procurement and smart manufacturing, resulting in a gross margin that is 5-8 percentage points higher than the industry average. The company has also implemented strategies to mitigate raw material price fluctuations [17]. Capital Strength and Globalization Layout - The upcoming IPO is expected to enhance Haitan's international financing capabilities, with plans to expand into Southeast Asia and North America. The company aims to increase its overseas revenue share from less than 5% to 15% within three years [18].

证券之星吴凡 2024年，一则"李子园（605337）卖不动了"的话题登上了微博热搜，这与公司发布的2024年年报数据形 成印证——核心品类含乳饮料连续三年陷入增长停滞。由于对含乳饮料中的甜牛奶产品过度依赖，李子 园近年的营收也始终在14亿元左右徘徊。 证券之星注意到，李子园近年也在通过拓宽产品结构来试图摆脱大单品依赖症，翻开公司官网，其品类 还涵盖果蔬类饮料、复合蛋白饮料、植物蛋白饮料等，2024年更宣布入局维生素水市场。然而，看似丰 富的产品矩阵并未转化为实际的业绩增长。在近期召开的业绩说明会中，公司管理层透露将在今年聚焦 奶粉销售，不过消费者对李子园的既有印象可能影响奶粉接受度，如何避免"甜牛奶跨界奶粉"的认知割 裂，是李子园转型成败的重要课题之一。 实际上，除含乳饮料品类中的核心产品"李子园甜牛奶"外，其余产品的知名度并不高。不过公司的这款 经典产品却在近年健康化趋势的冲击下受到诟病。以公司原味甜牛奶为例，排名前三配料分别为饮用 水、全脂牛乳粉和白砂糖，另有部分食品添加剂。该配料表中高糖、低蛋白(每100ml蛋白质仅1g)的组 合与当前"减糖、低脂、高蛋白"的健康消费趋势背道而驰。 值得注意，在202 ...