Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [4] Core Views - Budweiser APAC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.555 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4% [1] - Normalized EBITDA for the same period was $438 million, down 6.9% year-on-year, while normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was $204 million, a decrease of 9.3% [1] - The company is focusing on high-end and super high-end segments to leverage competitive advantages despite a weak beer demand in the Chinese market [4] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q3 2025 sales volume was 2.2512 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [1] - Revenue per hectoliter increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 51.4%, showing a slight increase [1] Regional Performance - Western Asia-Pacific region saw revenue and normalized EBITDA decline by 12.0% and 11.9% year-on-year, respectively, with sales volume down 9.9% [2] - The Indian market performed well with double-digit revenue growth, positively impacting EBITDA [2] - Eastern Asia-Pacific region experienced revenue and normalized EBITDA growth of 3.9% and 8.7% year-on-year, respectively, despite a slight decline in sales volume [2] China Market Insights - In Q3 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA in China fell by 15.1% and 17.9% year-on-year, respectively, with sales volume down 11.4% [3] - The decline was attributed to inventory management and weak on-the-go channel performance [3] - The company is focusing on optimizing channel inventory and enhancing contributions from non-on-the-go channels [3] Financial Forecasts - The report revises down the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $589 million, $682 million, and $733 million, representing reductions of 15%, 7%, and 6% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23x for 2025, 20x for 2026, and 19x for 2027 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Budweiser APAC experienced the largest decline in revenue and net profit among the top six beer companies in China, with decreases of 8.06% and 24.4% respectively [2] - The Chinese beer market is dominated by a few major players, with the top six companies holding over 90% market share for the past three years [2] - Budweiser APAC lost its position as the top revenue earner in the industry to China Resources Beer, with revenues of 22.275 billion and 23.942 billion respectively [2] Group 2 - The Chinese market is crucial for Budweiser APAC, contributing over 70% of its revenue in 2024, but sales volume and net income in the first half of 2025 saw declines of 8.2% and 10.2% year-on-year [2] - The CEO of Budweiser APAC noted that the company's sales in China did not meet industry averages due to weak performance in key markets and channels [2][3] - Budweiser APAC plans to accelerate the expansion of non-drinking channels, which currently account for about 50% of its business in China, compared to the industry average of 60% [4] Group 3 - China Resources Beer has been proactive in adapting to the rise of new retail channels, including e-commerce and instant retail, which are growing rapidly at rates of 30% or higher [5] - The company has established strategic partnerships with major platforms such as Alibaba and Meituan, resulting in significant growth in online and instant retail business, with GMV increasing by nearly 40% and 50% respectively in the first half of 2025 [5]

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC's performance in the first half of the year shows a significant decline, with net profit down 24.4%, sales down 6.1%, and revenue down 5.6% [1][3][4] - The company faces intense competition in the high-end beer market from local brands such as China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Beer, and Yanjing Beer, which have gained market share [1][5][7] - Budweiser APAC's reliance on on-premise channels like restaurants and nightlife venues has been a major factor in its declining performance, as these channels are increasingly competitive [6][8] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Budweiser APAC reported revenue of $3.136 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of $409 million, down 24.4% [3][4] - Total sales volume reached 4.363 billion liters, reflecting a 6.1% decline compared to the previous year [3][4] - The company's net profit has been on a downward trend for three consecutive years, with figures of $913 million, $852 million, and $726 million from 2022 to 2024, representing declines of 3.89%, 6.7%, and 14.8% respectively [3][4] Market Dynamics - Budweiser APAC's market share in China's high-end beer segment has dropped from approximately 50% to 42% [7] - The company has struggled to adapt to changing consumer preferences and increased competition in the high-end market, leading to a significant decline in sales of high-end and super high-end products [7][8] - The shift in consumer behavior towards home consumption and instant retail has resulted in non-on-premise channels becoming more significant, now accounting for about 60% of beer sales in China [10] Strategic Adjustments - Budweiser APAC is undergoing a strategic transformation under its new CEO, focusing on channel transformation, product adjustments, and marketing innovation [8][9] - The company aims to target the mid-range market by reallocating resources from the super high-end segment to the 8-10 yuan price range [8][9] - Non-on-premise channels are becoming a key focus, with the company recognizing the need to catch up in this area, as it currently lags behind industry standards [9][10]

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC's performance in the first half of the year shows a significant decline, with net profit down 24.4%, sales down 6.1%, and revenue down 5.6% [1][2] - The company faces intense competition in the high-end beer market from local brands like China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Beer, and Yanjing Beer, which have gained market share [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Budweiser APAC reported revenue of $3.136 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of $409 million, down 24.4% [1][2] - Total sales volume reached 4.363 billion liters, reflecting a 6.1% decline compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company's net profit has been declining for three consecutive years, with figures of $913 million, $852 million, and $726 million projected for 2022-2024, representing year-on-year declines of 3.89%, 6.7%, and 14.8% respectively [2] Market Challenges - Budweiser APAC's reliance on on-premise channels like restaurants and nightclubs has been detrimental, as these channels face increasing competition [3][4] - The company's market share in the high-end beer segment has dropped from approximately 50% to 42% [4] - The shift in consumer preferences towards non-on-premise channels has further complicated Budweiser's market position [7] Strategic Adjustments - The newly appointed CEO, Cheng Yanjun, is focusing on strategic transformation, emphasizing channel transformation, product adjustment, and marketing innovation [6] - Budweiser APAC is shifting its product strategy to target the mid-range market, particularly the 8-10 yuan price segment, which has seen increased competition from other major brands [6][7] - The company aims to enhance its non-on-premise channel presence, which currently accounts for about 50% of its business in China, compared to the industry average of 60% [7] Future Outlook - The beer industry is entering a phase of moderate growth, and Budweiser APAC must adapt to maintain its competitive edge [3][4] - Analysts suggest that while Budweiser's strategy to penetrate the mid-range market is late, there are still opportunities for growth if the company can effectively build brand recognition and channel presence [6][7]

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a decline in revenue, net profit, and beer sales for the first half of the year, with net profit at $409 million (approximately 2.941 billion RMB), a year-on-year decrease of 24.4% [2] - The company's beer sales reached 4.363 million kiloliters, down 6.1% year-on-year [2] - Following the earnings report, Budweiser APAC's stock initially rose over 6.9% but closed down 5.82% at 8.26 HKD per share [2] Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's net profit for the first half of the year was significantly lower than the previous year's figure of $541 million, marking a continued downward trend [2] - The decline in net profit has accelerated, with a drop of 24.4% compared to a smaller decrease of 5.91% in the previous year [2] Market Challenges - The company's performance in China has been adversely affected by regional layout and weak on-the-go consumption channels [3] - Increased competition from domestic brands like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao, as well as international competitors like Carlsberg, has posed significant challenges [4] - Consumer preferences have shifted towards lower-priced products, impacting Budweiser APAC's market share in the high-end segment [4] Channel Dynamics - Traditional distribution channels, particularly in dining and nightlife, have struggled, contributing to the overall decline in performance [4][5] - The company is facing pressure to adapt its channel strategy, with a focus on integrating traditional and emerging distribution methods [5] Competitive Landscape - In contrast to Budweiser APAC, Heineken has reported strong growth in the Chinese market, particularly in high-end products, with a 30% increase in sales [6][7] - Heineken's partnership with China Resources Beer has enhanced its market presence and competitiveness against Budweiser in China [7] Strategic Adjustments - Budweiser APAC is adjusting its product positioning and channel strategies, focusing on high-end brands and expanding into non-on-the-go consumption channels [8] - The company is investing in online retail and partnerships with platforms like Meituan and Ele.me to boost sales [8] - Despite these adjustments, analysts suggest that the brand's influence and the establishment of a non-on-the-go channel will take time [9] Industry Overview - The overall beer industry in China is facing challenges, with a reported 0.3% decline in production among major breweries in the first half of the year [10] - The market is currently in a contraction phase, raising questions about the performance of other leading companies in the sector [10]