Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market is shifting from the political deadlock to the release of delayed economic data and its impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, following the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown [1]. Economic Data Release Timeline - Morgan Stanley predicts that once the government resumes operations, delayed economic data will begin to be released, with significant delays expected due to the shutdown covering the entire month of October [1][5]. - Key data such as September employment and inflation (PCE), retail sales, and some trade and manufacturing indicators are expected to be available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10 [5][6]. - The September employment report is anticipated to be released on November 19, followed by September retail sales and PPI on November 26, and the third-quarter GDP on December 5 [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - Despite the data delays, Morgan Stanley maintains its core view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, driven by weak labor demand and rising unemployment [6]. - The report forecasts that non-farm payrolls will increase by only 50,000 in September, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, and expected to rise to 4.5% in October and November [6]. Market Risks and Reactions - Investors face asymmetric risks where "good news" could turn into "bad news" for the market, as the Federal Reserve will rely heavily on incoming data to guide its decisions [7]. - If economic data is weak, it may not lead to significant market volatility unless there is a sharp economic downturn [8]. - Conversely, strong employment data could challenge the prevailing narrative of rate cuts, prompting a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path and potentially pressuring risk assets [8].

Core Insights - The focus of the market is shifting from the political deadlock of the U.S. government shutdown to the release of delayed economic data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [1][5]. Economic Data Release Timeline - Morgan Stanley predicts that once the government resumes operations, delayed economic data will be released, with significant delays expected due to the shutdown covering the entire month of October [1][2]. - Key data releases are projected as follows: - September Employment Report: November 19, 2025 [3][4]. - September Retail Sales and PPI: November 26, 2025 [3][4]. - Q3 GDP: December 5, 2025 [3][4]. - October Employment Report: December 8, 2025 [3][4]. Federal Reserve's December Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to have access to critical data, including September employment, inflation (PCE), and retail sales, before its meeting on December 9-10 [5]. - Despite data delays, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by weak labor demand and rising unemployment [6]. Asymmetric Risks for Investors - Investors face asymmetric risks where "good news" could turn into "bad news" for the market, particularly if strong economic data challenges the prevailing narrative of rate cuts [7]. - If employment data unexpectedly improves, it may force a reevaluation of the Fed's interest rate path, potentially leading to market adjustments [7].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding "Black Swan" events and the concept of "Antifragility" in both investment and life, as articulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb during a recent summit [1][2]. Group 1: Black Swan and Antifragility - Black Swan events are characterized by rarity, significant impact, and predictability in hindsight, highlighting that unknown factors are often more critical than known ones [2]. - Antifragility refers to systems that benefit from volatility and chaos, thriving under stress rather than merely surviving [2]. Group 2: Modern Society and Vulnerability - Modern societal structures exhibit scalability and connectivity, leading to a "winner-takes-all" phenomenon where a few entities capture the majority of wealth [4]. - The acceleration of information transfer can result in severe impacts from a limited number of events, increasing overall societal vulnerability [5]. Group 3: Economic Insights - The global economic structure shows that while the debt levels in Europe and Japan continue to rise without growth, China's economy is positioned as more antifragile, growing at a faster pace [7][12]. - Historical data indicates that the economic impact of crises has been increasing, with losses from recent events being significantly larger than those from earlier crises [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious of debt, relying on a "barbell strategy" to hedge against tail risks and avoid overvalued assets with unreliable cash flows [8]. - Gold is identified as a superior antifragile asset, having appreciated by 40% as the dollar's status as a reserve currency diminishes [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article posits that China's economy is likely to experience greater prosperity compared to many other countries, suggesting that Chinese investors can afford to take on more risk [12].