新华社内罗毕12月26日电 年终报道｜非洲在变局中发出更响亮声音 新华社记者应强 刘万利 闫然 2025年，非洲大陆多次成为国际焦点。几内亚比绍突发政变，贝宁挫败政变企图，刚果（金）东部战火 重燃，苏丹武装冲突未息……与此同时，以"团结、平等、可持续"为主题的二十国集团（G20）领导人 第二十次峰会在南非约翰内斯堡成功举办，强调通过多边合作应对全球挑战。 受历史和现实等因素制约，非洲的发展之路并不平坦，部分国家安全形势严峻，但正如G20约翰内斯堡 峰会所展现的，这片发展中国家最集中的大陆在国际事务中的影响力正不断提升。当前，以非洲国家为 重要代表的全球南方卓然壮大，正从全球治理的被动参与者逐步变为重要推动者，深刻影响世界百年变 局的进程与走向。 推动全球治理的"非洲时刻" 11月下旬，G20约翰内斯堡峰会聚焦推动全球南方国家尤其是非洲国家普遍关注的发展议程。美国政府 未派代表出席此次峰会，还在会前对南非施压，反对未经美方同意"以二十国集团共识为前提发表任何 峰会成果文件"。 与会各方并未屈从于美国的压力，而是以"压倒性共识"在开幕当天即宣布通过《二十国集团领导人约翰 内斯堡峰会宣言》，强调通过多边合作应对全球 ...

Core Insights - The World Bank report highlights a decline in Kenya's formal sector job creation capacity over the past decade, indicating a challenging business environment for foreign investment and trade [1] - The report warns that policies limiting competition could hinder foreign investment, stifle economic growth, and reduce job creation in Kenya [1] - Recommendations include reassessing measures such as foreign equity restrictions and non-tariff barriers to attract critical inputs, technology, and global best practices [1] - Leveraging the momentum of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is deemed essential for Kenya's economic development [1]

尽管南非经济取得了诸多积极进展，但"逆风"依然存在。在全球经济环境复杂多变的背景下，南非需要 增强其经济竞争力、生产能力和贸易能力。 拉马福萨谈到，多年来，南非企业不断创新并强化适应能力，巧妙应对了巨大挑战。未来，南非企业应 拓展视野，在探索非洲大陆新的贸易和投资市场时，进一步利用其能力优势。非洲大陆自由贸易区相关 政策的实施将深刻改变南非商品、服务和投资的市场准入，有助于推动区域一体化和跨境价值链的发 展，也为南非企业创造了进入非洲更广阔市场的机会。拉马福萨强调，非洲拥有约14亿人口，国内生产 总值（GDP）总和达3.4万亿美元。南非的增长和繁荣与非洲大陆的增长和繁荣密不可分，双方因共同 的未来而更加紧密地联系在一起。因此，南非必须以更大的目标和更专注的态度来开展与非洲大陆共同 增长与繁荣这项工作。拉马福萨呼吁南非企业积极参与其中，共同引领南非和非洲大陆走上新的经济发 展道路，共同参与建设一个更美好的非洲。 （文章来源：经济日报） 据南非总统府新闻简报，11月18日，南非总统拉马福萨在出席总统商务工作宴会上讲话指出，二十国集 团（G20）领导人第二十次峰会首次在非洲大陆举行，南非作为本届G20轮值主席国，主 ...

Core Insights - The Rwandan Ministry of Trade and Industry has introduced the "AfCFTA National Implementation Strategy," focusing on agricultural processing and green manufacturing to enhance integration with regional markets [1] - The government has also launched a "Green Supplement Strategy" aimed at systematically promoting low-carbon green value chain development [1] Agricultural Processing and Green Manufacturing - Rwanda will prioritize industries with comparative advantages that meet green standards, including the processing of tea, coffee, avocados, and honey, as well as textile, leather products, and digital trade services for export [1] - The establishment of a one-stop trade facilitation center and an AfCFTA National Implementation Committee has been initiated to support the strategy's implementation [1] Economic Opportunities and Challenges - Current intra-African trade rates are only 15%-17%, indicating significant market opportunities, but challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and non-tariff barriers need to be addressed [1] - Farmers are calling for increased support for environmentally friendly planting technologies to meet the growing international demand for organic products [1]

Economic Growth - South Africa's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q2 2023, an increase from 0.1% in Q1, marking the strongest growth quarter in nearly two years [1] - The South African Reserve Bank forecasts economic growth of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 [1] Sector Performance - Eight out of ten industries in South Africa experienced growth in Q2, significantly up from four in Q1 [1] - The mining sector saw a growth of 3.7%, the fastest since Q1 2021, driven by increased production of platinum group metals, gold, and chrome [1] - Manufacturing grew by 1.8%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth, with seven industries, including petroleum and chemicals, showing positive growth [1] - Agriculture continued its positive trend with a growth rate of 2.5%, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth [1] Consumer Spending - Household consumption remained active, with a growth rate of 0.8% in Q2, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth [2] - The trade, restaurant, and accommodation sectors grew by 1.7%, the highest level since Q1 2022, supported by increased spending in restaurants, hotels, clothing, and insurance [2] Challenges and Trade - South Africa's economic growth faces challenges such as unstable domestic electricity supply and heavy debt burdens [2] - The U.S. has imposed a 30% tariff on South African exports, particularly affecting the automotive and agricultural sectors, adding uncertainty to economic trends [2] - South Africa's total exports and fixed capital investment saw a decline in Q2 [2] - The government and business sectors are actively working to diversify foreign trade, with notable growth in citrus exports to Vietnam and avocado exports to China [2] Trade Agreements and Cooperation - South Africa is committed to advancing the African Continental Free Trade Area and expanding trade cooperation with BRICS and other emerging market countries [3] - The resilience of the South African economy is highlighted despite various adverse factors, indicating a promising outlook for multilateral trade cooperation with other global southern countries [3]

Economic Growth - South Africa's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q2 2023, an increase from 0.1% in Q1, marking the strongest growth quarter in nearly two years [1] - The South African Reserve Bank forecasts economic growth of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 [1] Sector Performance - Eight out of ten industries in South Africa experienced growth in Q2, significantly up from four in Q1 [1] - The mining sector saw a growth of 3.7%, the fastest since Q1 2021, driven by increased production of platinum group metals, gold, and chrome [1] - Manufacturing grew by 1.8%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth, with seven industries, including petroleum and chemicals, showing positive growth [1] - Agriculture continued its positive trend with a growth rate of 2.5%, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth [1] Consumer Spending - Household consumption increased by 0.8% in Q2, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth, with notable increases in trade, accommodation, and restaurant sectors [2] - Government public spending also contributed positively to economic development during the quarter [2] Challenges and Trade - South Africa's economic growth faces challenges such as unstable domestic electricity supply and heavy debt burdens [2] - The imposition of a 30% tariff on South African exports to the US has severely impacted exports, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors [2] - There has been a decline in both total exports and fixed capital investment in Q2 [2] - The government and business sectors are actively working to diversify foreign trade, with increasing exports of citrus to Vietnam and avocados to China [2] Trade Agreements - South Africa is committed to advancing the African Continental Free Trade Area and expanding trade cooperation with BRICS and other emerging markets [3] - The resilience of the South African economy amidst various challenges highlights the potential for broad multilateral trade cooperation with other global southern countries [3]

Group 1 - The Global Women's Conference in Beijing is viewed as a significant event that has placed women's issues at the forefront of the global agenda, leading to positive impacts over the past 30 years [2] - Ghana has made notable progress in women's empowerment, including legislative measures to ensure women's representation in government and public life, the establishment of support departments for victims of domestic violence, and initiatives for girls' education [2][3] - Ghana has achieved gender parity in school enrollment, with the number of girls attending school now equal to that of boys, a significant shift from previous practices that prioritized boys' education [2] Group 2 - Ghana considers China an important partner, with 65 years of diplomatic relations leading to successful cooperation in agriculture and infrastructure, enhancing Ghana's productivity [3][4] - The bilateral trade between Ghana and China is projected to reach a historical high of $11.8 billion in 2024, with increasing trade volumes encouraging further collaboration [4] - Ghana is focusing on five strategic areas for cooperation with China: infrastructure development, agriculture and food processing, textile and apparel industry, digitalization and innovation, and energy [4] Group 3 - Ghana's strategic location in West Africa positions it as a key hub for trade and cooperation, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative and the African Continental Free Trade Area [4] - The "Accra Reset" initiative announced by Ghana at the UN General Assembly aims to address global governance, finance, health, and trade systems, aligning with China's global governance proposals [4][6] - The African continent is poised to leverage partnerships with countries like China to avoid missing opportunities in the new industrial revolution driven by digitalization and innovation [5][6]

Core Points - The impending expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) poses a significant threat to the livelihoods of workers in Kenya's garment industry, particularly for women like Joan Wambui, who rely on these jobs for their families' survival [2][4][5] - The AGOA has allowed over 30 African countries to export goods to the U.S. duty-free since 1998, with Kenya's garment sector alone exporting $470 million worth of clothing last year, creating 66,000 jobs, predominantly for women [4][11] - The factory manager, Isaac Maluki, reports a drastic reduction in long-term orders, down by two-thirds compared to last year, which could lead to significant job losses and financial losses for the factory [5][11] Industry Impact - The potential termination of AGOA could severely impact not only Kenya but also over 30 African nations that depend on this policy for trade, affecting a wide range of products and hindering the development of local manufacturing industries [9][11] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy, including the possibility of renewed tariffs, creates a challenging environment for African exporters, with diplomatic efforts underway to secure a renewal of AGOA [11][13] - Trade experts suggest that African countries should focus on enhancing internal trade cooperation to reduce reliance on the U.S. market, especially with the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area [13][15]

Core Insights - The article discusses how African countries are adapting to the pressures of new U.S. tariffs, showcasing their resilience and ability to diversify trade partnerships [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. has implemented "reciprocal tariffs" affecting numerous trade partners, with many African economies facing tariffs of up to 30% on South African goods [1]. - Despite the tariffs, the overall impact on Africa is manageable due to a declining share of U.S. trade in Africa's overall trade framework [2]. Group 2: Trade Diversification - The share of North America in Africa's imports has decreased from 7% in 2010 to 5% in 2023, while exports dropped from 17% to 7% [2]. - In 2024, Africa's trade with the U.S. is projected to be approximately $67.4 billion, accounting for only 5% of Africa's total external trade [2]. - China remains Africa's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $295.6 billion in 2024, marking a historical high for four consecutive years [2]. Group 3: African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) - The AfCFTA is emerging as a crucial buffer against external market fluctuations, with African trade expected to rebound by 13.9% in 2024, reaching $1.5 trillion [4]. - Internal trade within Africa is projected to grow by 12.4%, totaling $220.3 billion [4]. - As of February 2023, 48 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA, with 19 countries already engaging in trade under its framework [4]. Group 4: Traditional and Emerging Partnerships - Europe continues to play a stabilizing role as a traditional partner, with Euro-African trade accounting for 34.3% of Africa's external trade in 2024 [5]. - Trade with India has been on the rise, reaching approximately $103 billion in 2023, while non-energy trade with Gulf countries has also seen significant growth, with $60 billion in trade with the UAE in 2022 [6]. - Africa is demonstrating its capability to secure a more favorable position in the new global trade order through integration and diversification of partnerships [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff policies are disrupting existing trade relations in Africa, prompting the need for African nations to diversify trade partnerships and enhance cooperation through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to mitigate the impact of these tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The changes in U.S. tariff rates may lead to economic instability for African economies that heavily rely on external markets [1]. - The new tariff policies are expected to significantly affect non-U.S. relations and accelerate the shift of Africa's strategic focus away from a U.S.-centric trade system [2]. Group 2: Recommendations for African Economies - African countries should leverage the AfCFTA platform to build more resilient regional value chains and strengthen internal trade [2]. - There is a need for African decision-makers to reassess trade strategies, reduce dependency on single markets, and enhance economic resilience to cope with the dual impact of increased tariffs and reduced foreign aid [2]. Group 3: Diversification of Trade Partnerships - Emphasis should be placed on diversifying trade partnerships, particularly towards Asia, with a focus on China, which has announced zero tariffs on 100% of products for 53 African countries [2]. - The strengthening of trade relations with China presents significant opportunities for African businesses to effectively respond to the disruptions caused by U.S. trade policies [2].