Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the strong performance of the US dollar, which saw a 0.5% increase in the spot index, marking its best single-day performance since September 25 [1] - The rebound in the dollar is primarily driven by market adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction, particularly due to changes in the release schedule of key US economic data [2][4] - The delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll report to December 16, along with the merging of October data into November, creates uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's policy-making process [3][5] Group 2 - Market participants now believe that the likelihood of an interest rate adjustment in December has significantly decreased, as there is insufficient data to justify such a move [5][8] - Analysts from major banks, including Bank of America and Wells Fargo, suggest that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates has increased due to the lack of timely economic data [5][8] - The collective weakness of non-US currencies further highlights the strength of the dollar, with the British pound experiencing a notable decline of 0.7% and other currencies like the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen also under pressure [9][10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in the US Dollar Index are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the relative resilience of the US economy, and the divergence in non-USD currencies [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The October core PCE inflation rate fell to 3.5%, which was below expectations, leading multiple Federal Reserve officials to emphasize the need to maintain restrictive interest rates to solidify anti-inflation achievements [2]. - The annualized GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.9%, indicating a relatively strong economic resilience, which further enhances the attractiveness of the US dollar [2]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The Eurozone faces rising risks of economic stagnation, while the Bank of Japan continues its accommodative stance, and the British pound is pressured by the weakness of the UK economy, collectively exerting downward pressure on non-USD currencies [2]. - The overall weakness in non-USD currencies indirectly supports the upward movement of the US Dollar Index [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US Dollar Index has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 99.50, currently stabilizing above the key support level of 100.20, with the latest quote at 100.246 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 100.20, 100.10, and the 50-hour moving average around 100.05, while resistance is concentrated at 100.30, 100.40, and the previous upper boundary of 100.50 [3]. - Technical indicators suggest a strengthening upward trend for the index, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 22 [3].

Group 1 - The US dollar is hovering at low levels due to market expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with the dollar index falling below 97, marking its weakest level since July 7 [1] - The market anticipates at least a 25 basis point rate cut during the Federal Reserve's meeting, driven by recent weak US labor data, leading to increased expectations for consecutive rate cuts in September, October, December, and January [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve's communication strategy will remain cautious to avoid overly guiding market expectations, allowing for greater flexibility in policy-making amid economic uncertainties [2][3] Group 2 - The dollar index has declined nearly 11% year-to-date, with dovish Federal Reserve expectations supporting risk appetite and keeping the dollar under pressure [3] - Major currency pairs have shown significant movements, with the euro rising above 1.18 and the pound above 1.36, both reaching their highest points since early July, while the euro has appreciated nearly 14% year-to-date [4] - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that net long positions in euros have reached their highest level since early July, reflecting bullish sentiment [4]