巴西《经济价值报》9月19日消息，因投资者对美总统特朗普的经济政策缺乏信任，美元持续走 弱。Valor Data数据显示，今年以来至9月17日，巴西雷亚尔兑美元名义涨幅（未扣除通胀因素）达 16.18%，升值幅度居全球第五。根据该数据，全球33种货币中仅4种贬值，升值幅度排名前三的分别为 俄罗斯卢布（+36.6%）、匈牙利福林（+19.96%）和瑞典克朗（+18.29%），跌幅最大的则是阿根廷比 索（-30.05%）、土耳其里拉（-14.45%）和印度卢比（-2.98%）。 （原标题：今年以来巴西雷亚尔上涨16%，升值幅度居全球第五） ...

来源：匈牙利联合报 （匈牙利联合报/多瑙视野）匈牙利福林近几周已攀升至两年来的最高点，MBH 银行分析师预计其兑欧元的升势将持续到 2025 年剩余时间——这 一趋势可能有助于缓解通胀预期。 年底前福林汇率料跌破400 MBH银行分析中心负责人佐尔坦·阿罗克斯扎拉西表示，该银行预测2025年匈牙利福林兑欧元年均汇率为401 ，年底匈牙利福林兑欧元汇率将升至 397.5 。分析师预测2026年匈牙利福林兑欧元年均汇率将达到400.3。 专家预计2025年政府赤字将占GDP的4.6%，较去年的4.9%有所改善。匈牙利的就业将继续增长，2025年平均失业率为4.4%，2026年为4.2%。 阿 罗克斯扎拉西还指出，虽然福林的强势支持通货紧缩，但政府计划在 2026 年下半年逐步取消"价格保证金上限"，这可能会暂时再次提振通胀。 今年，匈牙利经济主要由服务业、零售业和酒店业支撑，而恶劣天气则对农业造成冲击，需求疲软则拖累工业。MBH银行预测2025年匈牙利GDP 增长率仅为0.8%，但预计2026年将出现复苏，外部需求和新一轮投资将推动经济增长高达3%。 通胀与货币政策前景 高级资本市场分析师玛尔塔·巴洛格-贝基表示 ...

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

Group 1: Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects that a weaker dollar will drive strong performance in emerging market currency carry trades, with a positive outlook for the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and Hungarian Forint as carry trade longs [1] - Barclays economists note a slowdown in UK core services inflation, suggesting a potential for a rate cut by the Bank of England in November [2] - Macro analysts from Capital Economics highlight that U.S. short-term interest rates face upward risks, indicating that the market may be overestimating the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Group 2: Economic and Market Trends - Societe Generale analysts predict a gradual weakening of the British Pound due to a bleak fiscal outlook, with expectations of higher taxes and slower economic growth [3] - Societe Generale also indicates that the implied volatility of the Euro against the Dollar may soon rebound due to upcoming events that could lead to greater exchange rate fluctuations [4] - China International Capital Corporation forecasts that the global AI liquid cooling market will reach $8.6 billion by 2026, driven by increasing computational demands and the advantages of liquid cooling technology [5] Group 3: Commodity and Investment Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates a cyclical upward opportunity for cobalt prices between 2025 and 2027, driven by an improving supply-demand balance [6] - Huatai Securities reports that A-share market activity remains high, with significant contributions expected from foreign and insurance capital in the future [6] - CITIC Securities believes that leading brands in the ready-to-drink beverage sector, which possess product innovation and offline traffic capabilities, are likely to navigate through economic cycles successfully [7]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that high-yield emerging market currencies remain susceptible to concerns over economic growth, but are expected to perform well under the basic assumption of a weaker dollar [1] Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to continue appreciating if tariff outcomes are more moderate, according to strategist Teresa Alves [1] - Mid-term outlook is positive for the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and Hungarian Forint as long positions in carry trades [1] - The Chilean Peso is highlighted as an attractive funding currency to reduce risk exposure in relative value emerging market carry trades [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the impact of Israel's attack on Iran, which has led to a depreciation of the Hungarian Forint against the Euro, falling by 0.62% to 403.75, marking a one-week low [1]