周三（11月26日）纽约尾盘，英镑兑美元涨0.53%，有望连续五个交易日反弹（期内累计涨幅大约 1.38%），报1.3242，北京时间20:12曾经跌至1.3125刷新日低。欧元兑美元涨0.23%，报1.1597；欧元兑 英镑跌0.30%，报0.87599，20:12一度冲高至0.88181。美元兑瑞郎跌0.42%，报0.8041。商品货币对中， 澳元兑美元涨0.78%，纽元兑美元涨1.32%——09:00出现一波短线拉升行情，美元兑加元跌0.41%。瑞 典克朗兑美元涨0.42%，挪威克朗兑美元涨0.31%，丹麦克朗兑美元涨0.22%。波兰兹罗提兑美元大致持 平，匈牙利福林兑美元涨0.32%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, and other currencies against the US Dollar, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market on November 11. Currency Movements - The Euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar, reaching 1.1586, and stabilized around 1.1560 before a short-term surge at 21:21 [1] - The British Pound decreased by 0.06% against the US Dollar, trading at 1.3166, and experienced a sharp decline to a daily low of 1.3117 following the release of UK employment data at 15:00 [1] - The Euro gained 0.32% against the British Pound [1] Other Currency Pairs - The US Dollar depreciated by 0.59% against the Swiss Franc, settling at 0.8003, with a notable decline after 21:00 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.19% [1] - The US Dollar also saw a decrease of 0.07% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 0.63% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona increased by 0.79% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona rose by 0.25% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.38% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on November 10th, with notable movements in commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars [1] Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.39% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.02 yen, with a trading range of 153.36 to 154.25 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro increased by 0.36% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.56% against the same currency [1] - The euro dipped by 0.04% against the US dollar, whereas the British pound appreciated by 0.15% against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar gained 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 0.6538, with a notable V-shaped movement observed [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.43% against the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.19% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krona increased by 0.43%, while the Danish krone slightly decreased by 0.03% [1] - The Polish zloty appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint rose by 0.11% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced fluctuations against the Japanese yen, with notable movements following the release of employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing index, indicating market reactions to economic indicators [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar rose by 0.29% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.11 yen, after hitting a low of 152.96 yen earlier in the day [1] - Following the release of the US small non-farm employment data at 21:15, the dollar maintained a slight upward trend [1] - The dollar peaked at 154.36 yen after the ISM non-manufacturing index was released at 23:00 [1] Other Currency Pairs - The euro increased by 0.36% against the yen, reaching 177.08 yen [1] - The British pound rose by 0.50% against the yen, reaching 201.090 yen [1] - The euro gained 0.07% against the US dollar, while the British pound increased by 0.21% against the dollar [1] - The Swiss franc saw a slight decline of 0.01% against the dollar [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.28% against the US dollar [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.36% against the US dollar [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a minor increase of 0.03% against the US dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar [1] - The Norwegian krone rose by 0.09% against the US dollar [1] - The Danish krone increased by 0.08% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty gained 0.19% against the US dollar and 0.12% against the euro [1] - The Hungarian forint appreciated by 0.45% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the Euro, British Pound, and various commodity currencies against the US Dollar on November 3rd. Currency Performance - The Euro declined by 0.17% against the US Dollar, closing at 1.1522 [1] - The British Pound fell by 0.08%, ending at 1.3142 against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar appreciated by 0.41% against the Swiss Franc, reaching 0.8079, with a peak of 0.8092 later in the day [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian Dollar decreased by 0.13% against the US Dollar [1] - The New Zealand Dollar dropped by 0.26% against the US Dollar [1] - The US Dollar rose by 0.30% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Other Currencies - The Swedish Krona increased by 0.09% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona slightly decreased by 0.03% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty declined by 0.12% against the US Dollar [1] - The Hungarian Forint appreciated by 0.06% against the US Dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on October 16th. Currency Performance - The US dollar depreciated by 0.43% against the Japanese yen, closing at 150.41 yen, with an intraday trading range of 151.40 to 150.21 yen [1] - The euro fell by 0.07% against the yen, while the British pound decreased by 0.17% against the yen [1] - Conversely, the euro appreciated by 0.39% against the US dollar, and the British pound rose by 0.25% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar also saw a decline of 0.49% against the Swiss franc [1] Commodity Currencies - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar decreased by 0.40% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar experienced a slight increase of 0.03% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.06% against the Canadian dollar [1] Other Currency Movements - The Polish zloty rose by 0.43% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint increased by 0.55% against the US dollar [1]

Core Insights - The Brazilian real has appreciated by 16.18% against the US dollar year-to-date as of September 17, making it the fifth strongest currency globally [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is attributed to investor skepticism regarding President Trump's economic policies [1] - Among 33 global currencies, only four have depreciated, with the Russian ruble, Hungarian forint, and Swedish krona leading in appreciation [1] Currency Performance - The Brazilian real's nominal appreciation of 16.18% ranks fifth globally [1] - The top three appreciating currencies are: - Russian ruble (+36.6%) - Hungarian forint (+19.96%) - Swedish krona (+18.29%) [1] - The currencies with the largest depreciation include: - Argentine peso (-30.05%) - Turkish lira (-14.45%) - Indian rupee (-2.98%) [1]

Core Insights - The Hungarian Forint has recently reached its highest point in two years, with expectations for its appreciation against the Euro to continue through the remainder of 2025, potentially alleviating inflation expectations [1][4] Currency Exchange Rate Forecast - MBH Bank predicts that the average exchange rate of the Hungarian Forint against the Euro will be 401 in 2025, with an end-of-year rate of 397.5. For 2026, the average exchange rate is expected to reach 400.3 [2] Economic Growth Projections - The Hungarian economy is currently supported by the service, retail, and hospitality sectors, while adverse weather has impacted agriculture and weak demand has affected industry. GDP growth is forecasted at 0.8% for 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026, driven by external demand and new investments, potentially reaching 3% [5] Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank anticipates an average inflation rate of 4.5% for 2025, decreasing to 3.9% in 2026. The core inflation rate fell to 3.9% in August, the lowest in four years. The benchmark interest rate has been maintained at 6.5% for over a year, with no changes expected before the end of 2025. However, anticipated rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may provide room for easing in Hungary, with projections of a decline to 6.0% by the end of 2026 and 5.0% by 2027 [6] Fiscal Deficit and Labor Market Trends - The government deficit is expected to be 4.6% of GDP in 2025, an improvement from 4.9% the previous year. Employment is projected to continue growing, with an average unemployment rate of 4.4% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. Despite the Forint's strength supporting disinflation, the government plans to gradually lift "price guarantee caps" in the second half of 2026, which may temporarily boost inflation [7]

Group 1 - Emerging market currencies have declined for the sixth consecutive day due to strong U.S. manufacturing data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have further pressured expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4] - The focus is shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, where he may reiterate the limited impact of tariffs on inflation while acknowledging a softening labor market, reinforcing market interest rate expectations [4] - The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President, Loretta Mester, stated that she would not support a rate cut if a decision were needed tomorrow, leading to a decline in the overall performance of emerging market currencies to the lowest level since early August [4] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index saw a slight rebound of 0.1%, ending a two-day decline caused by a drop in U.S. tech stocks, while the bond market showed mixed results [6] - The Hungarian forint led the decline among currencies due to escalating rumors regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the Brazilian real and Mexican peso remained strong against the dollar [6] - In the geopolitical arena, former President Trump indicated support for Ukraine to launch more counterattacks against Russia, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. policy, which could impact risk assets [7]

Group 1: Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects that a weaker dollar will drive strong performance in emerging market currency carry trades, with a positive outlook for the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and Hungarian Forint as carry trade longs [1] - Barclays economists note a slowdown in UK core services inflation, suggesting a potential for a rate cut by the Bank of England in November [2] - Macro analysts from Capital Economics highlight that U.S. short-term interest rates face upward risks, indicating that the market may be overestimating the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Group 2: Economic and Market Trends - Societe Generale analysts predict a gradual weakening of the British Pound due to a bleak fiscal outlook, with expectations of higher taxes and slower economic growth [3] - Societe Generale also indicates that the implied volatility of the Euro against the Dollar may soon rebound due to upcoming events that could lead to greater exchange rate fluctuations [4] - China International Capital Corporation forecasts that the global AI liquid cooling market will reach $8.6 billion by 2026, driven by increasing computational demands and the advantages of liquid cooling technology [5] Group 3: Commodity and Investment Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates a cyclical upward opportunity for cobalt prices between 2025 and 2027, driven by an improving supply-demand balance [6] - Huatai Securities reports that A-share market activity remains high, with significant contributions expected from foreign and insurance capital in the future [6] - CITIC Securities believes that leading brands in the ready-to-drink beverage sector, which possess product innovation and offline traffic capabilities, are likely to navigate through economic cycles successfully [7]