2025年市场波动中，新兴市场货币表现强劲，新兴市场外汇交易兴趣大增也成为亮点。而2026年美元疲 软趋势预计将持续，这将有利于新兴市场。对冲基金和银行外汇交易部门受益最大。 例如，作为长期以来在新兴市场中处于边缘地位的货币，匈牙利福林的交易量自美国总统特朗普于今年 1月上任以来已增长了一倍多。自他宣布大规模的"解放日"进口关税政策以来，交易者的兴趣更是与日 俱增。交易员、策略师和对冲基金表示，这些交易量的增加并非偶然现象;他们正在参与规模高达每天1 万亿美元的全球外汇市场交易。 今年，福林兑美元汇率已上涨约20%，创下近25年来最佳表现，成为2025年新兴货币表现最佳的货币之 一。从更广泛的层面来看，今年新兴市场货币的表现也相当不错：MSCI新兴市场货币指数在7月创下历 史新高，并有望实现自2017年以来的最佳年度表现，涨幅超过6%。接受机构调查的交易员、基金经理 和分析师大多预计这一趋势明年也将持续下去。 新兴市场货币表现强劲得益于美元波动性增强且持续走弱，这促使投资者重新审视对美元的投资敞口， 并对长期以来美元的强势和全球货币地位提出质疑。与此同时，他们正在押注一些发展中国家(从南非 到匈牙利)的经济价 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market carry trades are expected to remain effective through 2026, driven by low borrowing costs from central banks in developed economies and sustained interest rate differentials between developed and emerging markets [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Emerging Market Carry Trades - The Bloomberg Emerging Market Carry Index has achieved a year-to-date return of 16.71%, the highest since 2009, when it reached 19.89% [3]. - In the previous five years, four years recorded negative returns, with rates of -2.84%, -5.02%, -0.52%, and -3.17% for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024 respectively [3]. - High benchmark interest rates in countries like Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa have resulted in three-month implied yields of 13.4%, 7.5%, and 6.6%, significantly outperforming developed economies [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The trajectory of the U.S. economy is seen as a key factor for the continued strong performance of emerging market currencies, with expectations of a slowdown encouraging the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy [4]. - Investment firms like Invesco and Goldman Sachs recommend increasing short positions on the U.S. dollar against currencies such as the Brazilian real and South African rand [4]. - Neuberger Berman highlights that reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market and a weak dollar create favorable conditions for emerging market carry trades [5][6]. Group 3: Volatility Concerns - There is ongoing debate about whether low foreign exchange volatility can be maintained, as adverse currency movements could quickly erase gains [7]. - Current indicators from JPMorgan show emerging market currency volatility is near a five-year low, but concerns remain about potential increases due to factors like U.S. midterm elections and Federal Reserve policy divergences [7]. - Vanguard Group believes that market disruptions from events like Trump's tariff policies are diminishing, suggesting a stable environment for emerging market currencies in 2026 [7].

Group 1 - Emerging market carry trades are expected to continue thriving in 2026, supported by reduced forex market volatility and a weak US dollar [1] - A key indicator for this strategy has shown a return of approximately 17% this year, marking the highest increase since 2009 [1] - Major asset management firms and banks anticipate that the interest rate gap between developed and emerging markets will persist, with the Federal Reserve and other wealthy nations' central banks likely to maintain low borrowing costs [1] Group 2 - Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies have seen significant increases this year, with countries like Brazil and Colombia experiencing currency appreciation of over 13% against the US dollar [3] - The performance of these markets is closely tied to the US economic outlook, with investors hoping for weak growth to encourage further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3] - Goldman Sachs has highlighted the attractiveness of shorting the US dollar against currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand, with a basket of these trades yielding approximately 20% returns this year [3] Group 3 - Investors are assessing whether forex volatility will remain low, as adverse currency movements can quickly erase months of gains [6] - Current market expectations for volatility are low, with a JPMorgan indicator nearing a five-year low, raising concerns among market participants [6] - Despite potential factors that could increase currency volatility, such as US midterm elections and central bank policy divergences, Vanguard Group expects that market disruptions will remain controlled into 2026 [6]

Group 1 - The euro increased by 0.86% this week, closing at 1.1742 against the US dollar, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement on December 10 [1] - The British pound rose by 0.31% this week, reaching 1.3370 against the US dollar [1] - The Swiss franc depreciated by 1.10% against the US dollar, closing at 0.7959 [1] Group 2 - The Australian dollar increased by 0.18% against the US dollar, while the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.47% [1] - The Canadian dollar fell by 0.36% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona appreciated by 1.39% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.24% [2] - The Danish krone increased by 0.84% against the US dollar [2] Group 3 - The Polish zloty rose by 0.94% against the US dollar, while the Hungarian forint fell by 0.23% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the US dollar against various currencies, highlighting both gains and losses in different pairs [1]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar against the Japanese yen decreased by 0.25%, closing at 155.63 yen, before slightly rising to a high of 156.16 yen and then dropping to a low of 154.95 yen [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.39% against the US dollar, while the British pound saw a marginal increase of 0.03% [1]. - The US dollar declined by 0.63% against the Swiss franc, indicating a notable shift in this currency pair [1]. Group 2: Commodity Currencies - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.20% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.17% [1]. - The Canadian dollar also experienced a slight decline of 0.10% against the US dollar [1]. Group 3: Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona rose by 0.12% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krona increased by 0.13% [1]. - The Danish krone appreciated by 0.38% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty gained 0.37% [1]. - The Hungarian forint saw an increase of 0.28% against the US dollar, reflecting positive movement in these currencies [1].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced a decline against several currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, while the euro and British pound strengthened against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar fell by 0.48% against the Japanese yen, closing at 155.13 yen, with a trading range of 155.91 to 155.01 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.42% against the US dollar, reaching 1.1673, showing a consistent upward trend [1] - The British pound increased by 1.06% against the US dollar, closing at 1.3352, also reflecting a continuous rise [1] - The US dollar declined by 0.47% against the Swiss franc, ending at 0.7994 [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.57% against the US dollar [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.74% against the US dollar [1] - The US dollar decreased by 0.16% against the Canadian dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.64% against the US dollar [1] - The Norwegian krone rose by 0.75% against the US dollar [1] - The Danish krone increased by 0.42% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty strengthened by 0.53% against the US dollar [1] - The Hungarian forint rose by 0.37% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing a rebound against the US dollar, with a cumulative increase of approximately 1.38% over the past five trading days, closing at 1.3242 [1] Currency Movements - The euro has appreciated by 0.23% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1597, while it has depreciated by 0.30% against the British pound, at 0.87599 [1] - The US dollar has declined by 0.42% against the Swiss franc, with a rate of 0.8041 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar has risen by 0.78% and the New Zealand dollar by 1.32% against the US dollar, with a notable short-term surge at 09:00 [1] - The US dollar has decreased by 0.41% against the Canadian dollar [1] - The Swedish krona has appreciated by 0.42%, the Norwegian krone by 0.31%, and the Danish krone by 0.22% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty has remained relatively stable against the US dollar, while the Hungarian forint has increased by 0.32% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the movements of the Euro, British Pound, and other currencies against the US Dollar, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market on November 11. Currency Movements - The Euro appreciated by 0.25% against the US Dollar, reaching 1.1586, and stabilized around 1.1560 before a short-term surge at 21:21 [1] - The British Pound decreased by 0.06% against the US Dollar, trading at 1.3166, and experienced a sharp decline to a daily low of 1.3117 following the release of UK employment data at 15:00 [1] - The Euro gained 0.32% against the British Pound [1] Other Currency Pairs - The US Dollar depreciated by 0.59% against the Swiss Franc, settling at 0.8003, with a notable decline after 21:00 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 0.11% against the US Dollar, while the New Zealand Dollar rose by 0.19% [1] - The US Dollar also saw a decrease of 0.07% against the Canadian Dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish Krona appreciated by 0.63% against the US Dollar [1] - The Norwegian Krona increased by 0.79% against the US Dollar [1] - The Danish Krona rose by 0.25% against the US Dollar [1] - The Polish Zloty gained 0.38% against the US Dollar, while the Hungarian Forint saw a slight decline of 0.05% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and other currencies on November 10th, with notable movements in commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars [1] Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.39% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.02 yen, with a trading range of 153.36 to 154.25 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro increased by 0.36% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.56% against the same currency [1] - The euro dipped by 0.04% against the US dollar, whereas the British pound appreciated by 0.15% against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar gained 0.71% against the US dollar, trading at 0.6538, with a notable V-shaped movement observed [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.43% against the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.19% against the US dollar [1] - The Swedish krona rose by 0.23% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krona increased by 0.43%, while the Danish krone slightly decreased by 0.03% [1] - The Polish zloty appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint rose by 0.11% against the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced fluctuations against the Japanese yen, with notable movements following the release of employment data and the ISM non-manufacturing index, indicating market reactions to economic indicators [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar rose by 0.29% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.11 yen, after hitting a low of 152.96 yen earlier in the day [1] - Following the release of the US small non-farm employment data at 21:15, the dollar maintained a slight upward trend [1] - The dollar peaked at 154.36 yen after the ISM non-manufacturing index was released at 23:00 [1] Other Currency Pairs - The euro increased by 0.36% against the yen, reaching 177.08 yen [1] - The British pound rose by 0.50% against the yen, reaching 201.090 yen [1] - The euro gained 0.07% against the US dollar, while the British pound increased by 0.21% against the dollar [1] - The Swiss franc saw a slight decline of 0.01% against the dollar [1] Commodity Currencies - The Australian dollar rose by 0.28% against the US dollar [1] - The New Zealand dollar increased by 0.36% against the US dollar [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a minor increase of 0.03% against the US dollar [1] Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.17% against the US dollar [1] - The Norwegian krone rose by 0.09% against the US dollar [1] - The Danish krone increased by 0.08% against the US dollar [1] - The Polish zloty gained 0.19% against the US dollar and 0.12% against the euro [1] - The Hungarian forint appreciated by 0.45% against the US dollar [1]