北京时间今天凌晨，美联储召开了12月FOMC会议，以9票赞成、3票反对的投票结果决定降息25bp至 3.50%-3.75%。本次利率决定和会后表述总体超出市场"鹰派降息"的基准预期，虽然点阵图偏鹰，但会 后鲍威尔讲话偏鸽，叠加超预期的资产购买计划，带来股债齐涨。 发布会上鲍威尔的发言态度并不强硬，针对如下要点给出答复： 1．利率：不认为下次加息是目前任何人的基准假设。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 2．经济：政府关门可能对本季度的经济活动造成了压力，但这些影响应该会被下一季度更高的增长所 抵消。消费者支出似乎保持稳健，企业固定投资继续扩张。相比之下，房地产领域的活动仍然疲软。 3．劳动力市场：虽然劳动力市场的逐渐降温仍在继续，但劳动力市场的供给也大幅下降，所以失业率 并没有变动太多。不认为将出现严重失业情况。 点阵图中位数显示的降息路径偏鹰，2026年仅有一次降息。本次会议点阵图指向的降息中位数与上次相 似，即2026年和2027年分别降息25bp。然而，2026年点阵图分布更加分散，这代表本次决议的真实反对 声音其实更大，有7位票委认为明年维持不变甚至需要更鹰，即除了本次反对降息的2名票委外，另有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping below $87,000 for the first time since April, with a single-day drop exceeding 4%, leading to massive liquidations in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - Bitcoin fell from a peak of $126,000 in early October to $87,000, marking a 30% decline over one and a half months [3]. - The cryptocurrency market has seen widespread losses, with Ethereum dropping over 5% and Dogecoin losing half its value, while many altcoins have experienced declines exceeding 30% [3]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates has shattered hopes for rate cuts, leading to increased selling pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin [5]. - Institutional investors and large holders (whales) have been selling off their Bitcoin holdings, with a total outflow of $2.6 billion from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs over five weeks, and whales selling over $20 billion in assets since September [5]. - High leverage in the crypto market, with a leverage ratio of 18, has exacerbated the situation, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations as prices fell below critical levels [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market sentiment is divided, with bearish analysts predicting further declines to $85,000 or even $80,000, while bullish analysts foresee potential rebounds to $200,000 or $130,000 depending on future economic conditions [7]. - The Bitcoin MVRV ratio has dropped to a low of 1.76, historically indicating a potential rebound when below 2, with some whales starting to accumulate in the $92,000 to $95,000 range [7]. Group 4: Overall Market Impact - The overall cryptocurrency market has seen a total market cap decline equivalent to three times the size of Coinbase in just 19 days, reflecting the severity of the downturn [1].