Group 1 - The upcoming two weeks will see the release of significant economic data including non-farm payrolls, inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and options expirations, creating a volatile environment for the S&P 500, which recently reached a new high of 6500 points [2] - The market is currently pricing in only 85 basis points of volatility, which is significantly lower than historical averages, indicating a lack of belief that employment data will deviate from the expected 75,000 new jobs [2] - The Labor Department's recent downward revision of previous employment figures raises concerns about potential job losses, which could trigger recession narratives if the upcoming data shows significant declines [2] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on September 11, with core inflation having exceeded expectations for three consecutive months; any further increase could eliminate the current 90% probability of interest rate cuts in the swap market [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 17 will be crucial, especially if the dot plot indicates only one rate cut for the year, which could lead to a reevaluation of the current high valuation levels [2] - The "triple witching" event on September 19 will see a large volume of options expire, potentially triggering volatility due to accumulated leveraged positions in a low-volatility environment [3] Group 3 - Historical data shows that September has been a challenging month for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.7% over the past 30 years, and four out of the last five years have seen losses [3] - Fundstrat's Tom Lee has issued a rare warning that the market may initially drop by 5% to 10% before rebounding to 6800 points, indicating a potential short-term bearish trend [3] - Despite the challenges, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, with corporate earnings consistently exceeding expectations, suggesting that if economic data only shows moderate slowing, there could be a significant influx of cash into the market, pushing indices higher by year-end [3]

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows an overall increase in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in the future. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to increasing geopolitical tensions [18][6][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a volume decline, with the ChiNext index falling by 0.84%. The total trading volume was 1.09 trillion, down by 0.19 trillion from the previous day, with 1,465 stocks rising and 3,455 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that under weak fundamentals, the probability of a bullish index is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift to lower-priced dividend and agricultural stocks [22][24][27]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a state of consolidation, with the potential for a second adjustment. The report notes that the long-term U.S. Treasury bond issuance is facing challenges, with rates briefly exceeding 5%. The report anticipates that as U.S. Treasury rates rise, recession narratives may regain market focus, suggesting that investors should wait for better buying opportunities [27][8][29]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1843, a decline of 80 basis points from the previous close. The report indicates that the RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive trade data between China and the U.S. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with the previous high of 7.42 potentially marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index remained flat, with coal, polyester, and construction materials leading gains, while precious metals, coal chemicals, and non-ferrous sectors lagged. Given the high volatility in oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties, the report recommends a cautious approach. However, it notes a technical trend indicating stabilization at the bottom, suggesting that optimistic investors may consider light positions [36][10][37].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase across the board, indicating that the weak fundamentals will limit the height of any potential rise, and future volatility is likely to adjust downward, benefiting from inflows of risk-averse funds [17] - In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the demand for safe-haven assets may lead to a resurgence in bond prices as stock market volatility is expected to increase [17] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with a total trading volume of 1.5 trillion, an increase of 0.2 trillion from the previous day, with less than 800 stocks rising and over 4200 stocks declining, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite due to geopolitical tensions [20] - Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors such as low-yield dividends, agriculture, and technology, as the likelihood of a bullish market is low under current weak fundamentals [20][21] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market saw slight increases with the Dow Jones up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.24%, and S&P 500 up 0.38%, while concerns over rising bond yields and potential recession narratives may present better buying opportunities in the future [24] - The current market is likely in a phase of head consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term risks and wait for better buying points [24] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1814, a decrease of 13 basis points from the previous close, with expectations for the RMB to rise to around 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [28] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.93%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading the gains, while construction materials and non-ferrous metals lagged behind, suggesting a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices [32]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a general rise, with expectations that it will benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to low stock market volatility [4][19]. - The A-share market is showing signs of rotation, with a total trading volume of 1.15 trillion, indicating a focus on consumer sectors and a majority of stocks rising [22]. - The U.S. stock market is in a phase of slight upward movement, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices increasing by 0.51%, 0.58%, and 0.81% respectively [29]. Group 2: Asset Class Tracking - The bond market is expected to regain upward momentum as risk aversion increases, particularly if stock market volatility rises [4][19]. - The A-share market is characterized by low volatility and a cautious approach is recommended, especially if indices approach the 3000-point mark [22]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB appreciating against the USD, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [33]. Group 3: Sector Insights - Consumer sectors such as beauty care, beverage manufacturing, and textiles are leading the market, but overall trading volume remains insufficient for sustained growth [22]. - The commodity market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.72%, although it is still in a bearish trend overall [36]. - The agricultural and high-dividend sectors are highlighted as having stronger certainty for future performance [22].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market experienced a decline, with long-term bonds falling more than short-term ones. The outlook suggests that market risk appetite is increasing following a court ruling against Trump's global tariff policy, indicating a potential shift to a volatile mode for treasury futures [16][5]. - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 1.37%. The total trading volume reached 1.21 trillion, an increase of 0.18 trillion from the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks rising. The market is expected to enter a volatile phase with rotation among technology, dividend, and consumer sectors [19][21]. - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down by 0.58%, Nasdaq by 0.51%, and S&P 500 by 0.56%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields are a concern, and the narrative of recession may become a focal point for market trading in the future [24][25]. Group 2: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1888, a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous close. The RMB appreciated significantly due to favorable impacts from U.S.-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [28][29]. Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.13%, with mixed performance across sectors. Oil, polyester, and steel saw slight increases, while coal, building materials, and precious metals led the declines. The overall technical structure of the commodity market remains bearish, suggesting a cautious approach [31][32].

Strategy - The recent AI boom has significantly shifted investor sentiment and macro narratives, driving the Hong Kong stock market's continuous rise, primarily through valuation-driven growth. The market's optimistic outlook is reflected in the risk premium (ERP) [2] - Currently, Hong Kong stock valuations are still at historical low to mid-levels. The dynamic sentiment-driven recovery appears to be nearly complete, with dividend sectors showing a 5% relative space compared to A-shares, while tech sectors are aligned with ROE. The essence of this rebound is based on optimism regarding technology trends [2] - The short-term target for the Hang Seng Index is set between 23,000 and 24,000, with an optimistic scenario reaching 25,000. This static assessment does not imply an inevitable decline upon reaching these levels, but rather indicates potential market divergence if long-term expectations are not met [2] Macro Economy - China's consumption-to-GDP ratio is relatively low compared to international standards. While absolute price levels for goods align with China's economic development stage, service prices are comparatively low. The relative price levels indicate that the perception of low consumption in China is not supported by data [12] - There is significant potential for future consumption growth in China, particularly in the service sector, which has more room for expansion than goods consumption. Areas such as health insurance and entertainment are highlighted as having substantial growth potential. Upgrading goods consumption focuses on quality, while service consumption may require an increase in quantity [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, highlighting recent market trends and economic indicators that suggest a shift in investor confidence towards the U.S. economy and its stock market performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 10, U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq dropping 4%, marking the largest single-day decline since September 2022 [2]. - Since 2025, U.S. stocks have underperformed compared to non-U.S. indices, raising questions about the sustainability of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the U.S. composite PMI has cooled significantly compared to other major economies, while Europe and Japan show signs of recovery [3]. - Despite concerns, the U.S. economy is not in a state of true recession, as household balance sheets remain healthy and corporate cash flows are strong [4]. Group 3: Technological and Geopolitical Factors - The dominance of U.S. technology, particularly in AI, is being challenged by new entrants like DeepSeek, which could lead to a reevaluation of global tech assets [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating tariffs are creating additional challenges for U.S. companies [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investors may need to reassess the "American exceptionalism" narrative and adjust their regional allocation strategies, which may take time [5]. - For domestic markets, external factors are not the sole determinants; ongoing policies to stabilize the stock and real estate markets are crucial for addressing economic slowdowns [5].