证券分析师：张冬冬 2025 年 06 月 20 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.20）：缩量下跌 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.19）：调整>>- -2025-06-19 <<策略日报（2025.06.18）：小幅收 涨>>--2025-06-18 <<策略日报（2025.06.17）：窄幅震 荡>>--2025-06-18 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债全线上涨，长端涨幅大于短端。我们认为股市波动 率仍在低位，基本面的疲弱将限制上涨的高度，因此未来波动率的抬升更 可能是向下调整，维持债市后续将受益于避险资金的流入的判断。后续展 望：在地缘冲突加剧背景下，随着股市波动率可能抬高，资金避险需求或 使得债券重拾涨势。 A 股：市场缩量下跌，创业板指跌 0.84%。市场全天成交额 1.09 万 亿，较前一日缩量 0.19 万亿，个股呈普跌态势， 1465 只个股上涨，3455 只个股下跌。 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase across the board, indicating that the weak fundamentals will limit the height of any potential rise, and future volatility is likely to adjust downward, benefiting from inflows of risk-averse funds [17] - In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the demand for safe-haven assets may lead to a resurgence in bond prices as stock market volatility is expected to increase [17] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with a total trading volume of 1.5 trillion, an increase of 0.2 trillion from the previous day, with less than 800 stocks rising and over 4200 stocks declining, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite due to geopolitical tensions [20] - Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors such as low-yield dividends, agriculture, and technology, as the likelihood of a bullish market is low under current weak fundamentals [20][21] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market saw slight increases with the Dow Jones up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.24%, and S&P 500 up 0.38%, while concerns over rising bond yields and potential recession narratives may present better buying opportunities in the future [24] - The current market is likely in a phase of head consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term risks and wait for better buying points [24] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1814, a decrease of 13 basis points from the previous close, with expectations for the RMB to rise to around 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [28] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.93%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading the gains, while construction materials and non-ferrous metals lagged behind, suggesting a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices [32]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a general rise, with expectations that it will benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to low stock market volatility [4][19]. - The A-share market is showing signs of rotation, with a total trading volume of 1.15 trillion, indicating a focus on consumer sectors and a majority of stocks rising [22]. - The U.S. stock market is in a phase of slight upward movement, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices increasing by 0.51%, 0.58%, and 0.81% respectively [29]. Group 2: Asset Class Tracking - The bond market is expected to regain upward momentum as risk aversion increases, particularly if stock market volatility rises [4][19]. - The A-share market is characterized by low volatility and a cautious approach is recommended, especially if indices approach the 3000-point mark [22]. - The foreign exchange market shows the onshore RMB appreciating against the USD, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [33]. Group 3: Sector Insights - Consumer sectors such as beauty care, beverage manufacturing, and textiles are leading the market, but overall trading volume remains insufficient for sustained growth [22]. - The commodity market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.72%, although it is still in a bearish trend overall [36]. - The agricultural and high-dividend sectors are highlighted as having stronger certainty for future performance [22].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market experienced a decline, with long-term bonds falling more than short-term ones. The outlook suggests that market risk appetite is increasing following a court ruling against Trump's global tariff policy, indicating a potential shift to a volatile mode for treasury futures [16][5]. - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 1.37%. The total trading volume reached 1.21 trillion, an increase of 0.18 trillion from the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks rising. The market is expected to enter a volatile phase with rotation among technology, dividend, and consumer sectors [19][21]. - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down by 0.58%, Nasdaq by 0.51%, and S&P 500 by 0.56%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields are a concern, and the narrative of recession may become a focal point for market trading in the future [24][25]. Group 2: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1888, a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous close. The RMB appreciated significantly due to favorable impacts from U.S.-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [28][29]. Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.13%, with mixed performance across sectors. Oil, polyester, and steel saw slight increases, while coal, building materials, and precious metals led the declines. The overall technical structure of the commodity market remains bearish, suggesting a cautious approach [31][32].

Strategy - The recent AI boom has significantly shifted investor sentiment and macro narratives, driving the Hong Kong stock market's continuous rise, primarily through valuation-driven growth. The market's optimistic outlook is reflected in the risk premium (ERP) [2] - Currently, Hong Kong stock valuations are still at historical low to mid-levels. The dynamic sentiment-driven recovery appears to be nearly complete, with dividend sectors showing a 5% relative space compared to A-shares, while tech sectors are aligned with ROE. The essence of this rebound is based on optimism regarding technology trends [2] - The short-term target for the Hang Seng Index is set between 23,000 and 24,000, with an optimistic scenario reaching 25,000. This static assessment does not imply an inevitable decline upon reaching these levels, but rather indicates potential market divergence if long-term expectations are not met [2] Macro Economy - China's consumption-to-GDP ratio is relatively low compared to international standards. While absolute price levels for goods align with China's economic development stage, service prices are comparatively low. The relative price levels indicate that the perception of low consumption in China is not supported by data [12] - There is significant potential for future consumption growth in China, particularly in the service sector, which has more room for expansion than goods consumption. Areas such as health insurance and entertainment are highlighted as having substantial growth potential. Upgrading goods consumption focuses on quality, while service consumption may require an increase in quantity [12]

一觉醒来，小编的朋友圈被遭遇"黑色星期一"的美股报道刷屏。 当地时间3月10日，美股三大指数集体收跌，其中纳指大跌4%，创出2022年9月以来最大单日跌幅。 然而，让市场意外的或许只是跌幅，而不是下跌本身。随着2025年以来美股跑输港股、欧股等非美地区股指， 以及美国经济走向不如之前预期那般强劲，曾经为市场所津津乐道的"美国例外论"(American exceptionalism)不 再那么丝滑，而关于"美国不再例外"的讨论却趁势而上。 巴伦周刊上个月的报道中提到，美国银行(BofA)最近一项研究显示，投资者对"美国例外论"的信心正在减弱。 这背后，究竟发生了什么？ 这个问题的答案，得从"美国例外论"是什么说起。 参考平安证券报告的整理，"美国例外论"这一观点指的是美国的经济、政治和美元资产具备独特优势，使其在 全球周期中持续跑赢其他市场。经济方面，美国经济保持高于疫情前水平的高速增长，"例外地"免疫于疫情后 的疤痕效应；政策方面，美国财政刺激"例外地"突破传统束缚，持续成为经济的重要支撑。美联储维持较高利 率，但有效避免了高利率引发的经济金融风险；科技方面，美国科技领域的领先性在新一轮人工智能（AI）发 展 ...