Group 1: Common Option Structures - The three common option structures—Snowball, Phoenix, and Fixed Coupon Notes (FCN)—are essentially barrier options, with specific characteristics regarding cash flow and risk exposure [2][3]. - The classic Snowball structure allows for cash flow only at maturity or upon knock-out, while the Phoenix structure enables monthly cash flow as long as the price is above the knock-in line [2]. - FCN provides fixed coupon payments regardless of price movements during the holding period, making it attractive for conservative investors due to a significantly lower probability of knock-in [2]. Group 2: Profit and Loss Scenarios - In scenarios without knock-in, all three structures yield similar returns, with higher coupon structures being more favorable [3]. - In cases where knock-in occurs but knock-out does not, Snowball and FCN can still yield returns, while Phoenix's cash flow is affected by the knock-in event [3]. - If knock-in occurs and the asset price is below the exercise price at maturity, losses may occur, with Snowball being the most adversely affected due to no cash flow during the holding period [3]. Group 3: Risk and Return Dynamics - The risk-return relationship indicates that Phoenix typically offers lower coupons than Snowball, while FCN generally has the lowest coupon rates [4]. Group 4: Market Timing Considerations - Proper market timing is essential, as no option structure guarantees profit in all market conditions [5]. Group 5: Delta and Volatility Analysis - All three structures maintain a positive Delta, indicating a bullish stance on the underlying asset, and are more suitable for moderate upward or sideways markets [7]. - The expected volatility is positively correlated with coupon rates, as higher volatility increases the likelihood of reaching knock-in conditions [8]. - The structures tend to be short volatility in most scenarios, making high volatility periods favorable for entry [10]. Group 6: Selection of Underlying Assets - The choice of underlying assets significantly impacts the performance of the structured products, with the China Securities 500 Index being identified as a suitable candidate due to its risk-return profile [14][16]. - The analysis of daily return distributions shows that the Hang Seng Tech Index has the lowest probability of extreme negative returns, making it a favorable option [14][15]. Group 7: Historical Backtesting and Timing Strategies - Historical backtesting indicates that FCN can effectively mitigate knock-in losses, making it a lower-risk option compared to Snowball [16]. - Rational timing strategies suggest that selecting more aggressive structures during low-risk periods and conservative structures during higher-risk periods can optimize returns [16]. Group 8: Structural Variations and Adjustments - The flexibility in setting barriers allows for various structural adjustments to balance risk and return, such as eliminating knock-in features or adjusting the knock-out thresholds [19].

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes risk control while pursuing stable returns for investors, particularly in fixed income products [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The primary goal is to provide relatively stable returns for investors with a low to medium risk appetite, ensuring a strong focus on risk management [1]. - The investment approach combines macro perspectives with trading strategies, focusing on a core position in pure bonds to provide beta returns, while using interest rate fluctuations and convertible bonds to enhance alpha returns [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Performance - The investment manager, Song Qianqian, has a background as a trader, which has ingrained a strong risk awareness and liquidity management skills [2]. - The performance of the managed products shows a high success rate, with 12 out of 14 quarters achieving positive returns, resulting in a quarterly success rate of 86% [1][3]. - The strategy involves dynamic adjustments based on market conditions, focusing on the relative value of assets, such as credit spreads and yield curves [5]. Group 3: Product Management - The managed products include a variety of fixed income funds, such as short-term and medium-term bond funds, with a focus on different risk profiles [1][2]. - The pure bond fund, favored by fund of funds (FOF), has a market value held by 42 FOFs amounting to 613 million yuan [3]. - The investment team employs a comprehensive research approach for convertible bonds, ensuring strict credit quality control and providing a curated pool for flexible allocation [6].

Core Insights - The high-yield bond market is experiencing a significant contraction, with a notable scarcity of high-interest assets, emphasizing the need for a refined balance between risk and return in bond selection [2][4][9] - The overall performance of high-yield bonds has been mixed, with net price indices generally declining, yet the wealth index shows a return that outperforms government and credit bonds [6][7][11] Market Performance - In the first quarter, the issuance of high-yield bonds was limited, with only 3 bonds issued totaling 1.41 billion, marking a year-on-year decrease of 86.36% [28][29] - The trading volume of high-yield bonds decreased by 39.55% to 58.72 billion, indicating a cooling market sentiment [33][39] - The net price index for high-yield bonds fell by 0.92%, reflecting the impact of market volatility and tightening monetary policy [12][21] Sector Analysis - The real estate sector is still in a recovery phase, with demand remaining weak and market confidence low, leading to significant valuation fluctuations in high-yield real estate bonds [21][26] - The coal industry is currently stable, with high-yield bonds primarily from state-owned enterprises showing relatively stable credit conditions, suggesting a cautious investment approach [5][21] - The chemical industry presents short-term opportunities with a safety margin, while the construction and real estate sectors lag in risk-adjusted returns [21][26] Regional Insights - Key regions such as Chongqing, Shandong, and Guangxi have shown relatively better risk-adjusted returns in high-yield bonds, while regions like Zhejiang and Jiangsu have underperformed [16][19] - The net price index for high-yield city investment bonds has generally declined, with significant drops in regions like Tianjin and Hunan [16][19] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on high-yield city investment bonds with a good safety margin, particularly in areas where debt resolution progress is swift [5][11] - The strategy should include careful selection of bonds based on fundamental support, while maintaining a cautious stance towards longer-duration bonds in the real estate sector [5][21]

老婆昨天和我说，之前投城投债2年期的产品到期了，本金1000加利息（6.7%）已收到，暂时买了个3% 的理财过十一，节后我就要重新规划这笔钱的去向。 之前零星的聊过我有给家庭做财务配置规划，很多读者好奇，那今天正好说说这个。 我们家房产的比例不高，一共就北京一套，临海一套，不算投资，纯自住 ， 现在房价跌了，加起来也 不到2000。剩下资产都是金融资产，股票、债券、期货、港美、股权、信托、黄金、加密货币，甚至还 投了一点非标玩票。 看似种类不少，但本质上还是可以根据风险级别来划分。比如年化预期收益在6%以下的算低风险资 产，6-15%的算中风险资产，15%以上的算高风险资产。 行情好的时候策略比较积极，按照1:3:6配置，行情不好的时候就保守一下，改为2:4:4，或者2:5:3。资 金会在同一个风险级别的不同项目里互通，但不会随意跨风险级别流动，比如a股减仓了可以加仓美 股，但债券赎回来的钱不会买股票。 所以最近赎回来的这笔钱也肯定是找债券类的标的，不会说看到a股行情好就往里加仓，只是这几年债 券资产收益率跌的很厉害，现在只能买到5%左右的，所以我会从这笔钱里抽出一部分去增持链上资 产，以提升整体的收益率。 ...