Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].

Core Viewpoint - The total net asset value of public funds in China reached a record high of 33.74 trillion yuan as of the end of May 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.62 trillion yuan, or 1.89% [1][3]. Fund Categories Summary - **Stock Funds**: The net asset value of stock funds increased slightly, with a total of 4.58 trillion yuan. The A-share market showed a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.09% in May [4][5]. - **Mixed Funds**: The number of mixed funds decreased by 7 in May, leading to a 0.87% decline in total shares and a 0.38% drop in net asset value [6]. - **Bond Funds**: Bond funds continued to attract investment, with net asset value increasing by 2.91% to 6.78 trillion yuan. The issuance of new bond funds was strong, with 20 new funds raising a total of 36.21 billion yuan [2][8][9]. - **Money Market Funds**: Money market funds saw a significant increase of over 400 billion yuan in May, benefiting from a declining interest rate environment [10]. - **QDII Funds**: Despite a 2.84% decrease in shares, QDII funds experienced a net asset value growth of 1.59%, supported by strong performances in overseas markets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes risk control while pursuing stable returns for investors, particularly in fixed income products [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The primary goal is to provide relatively stable returns for investors with a low to medium risk appetite, ensuring a strong focus on risk management [1]. - The investment approach combines macro perspectives with trading strategies, focusing on a core position in pure bonds to provide beta returns, while using interest rate fluctuations and convertible bonds to enhance alpha returns [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Performance - The investment manager, Song Qianqian, has a background as a trader, which has ingrained a strong risk awareness and liquidity management skills [2]. - The performance of the managed products shows a high success rate, with 12 out of 14 quarters achieving positive returns, resulting in a quarterly success rate of 86% [1][3]. - The strategy involves dynamic adjustments based on market conditions, focusing on the relative value of assets, such as credit spreads and yield curves [5]. Group 3: Product Management - The managed products include a variety of fixed income funds, such as short-term and medium-term bond funds, with a focus on different risk profiles [1][2]. - The pure bond fund, favored by fund of funds (FOF), has a market value held by 42 FOFs amounting to 613 million yuan [3]. - The investment team employs a comprehensive research approach for convertible bonds, ensuring strict credit quality control and providing a curated pool for flexible allocation [6].

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近１月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 中长期借鉴>范佳音等>高美级目小在审指音 | 昌等级同业存审指基 > 现金管理 > 短债塞金>中长 | | 收益回顾 | >现金管理>含权债基 | 期债基 > 含权债基 | | | 近一个月资金面转松,关税冲击国内名义经 | | | 债市回顾 | 济增长预期,信贷扩张趋稳,债市情绪明显 | 1月偏强震荡,2月-3月中旬债市大幅调整,3月 | | | 改善后转而关注政策对冲和关税进展,债券 | 中旬以来转为偏强震荡。 | | | 利率快速下行后转为窄幅震荡。 | | | 行业事件 | | 1、银行理财、保险资管首次获得网下 IPO"打新"入场券。短期有助于理财固收+产品"稳中求 | | 跟踪 | 进"策略更好实现,长期或推动理财权益投资占比进一步提升,有利于产品多样化。 | | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | | 债券市场中长期仍有机会。美国经济"滞胀"压力 | | | -同业存单:预计利率 ...