Core Viewpoints - The current macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with some companies facing operational pressures while positive trends in consumption, industry, and capital markets are emerging [2] Employment Issues - The total number of employees in manufacturing listed companies reached 16.01 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 4.1% in the previous year [4][14] - Employment growth is primarily driven by the automotive manufacturing and computer communication electronics sectors, which contributed nearly all of the employment increase [4][14] Income Distribution - The average salary in the manufacturing sector is projected to be 176,000 yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, aligning closely with the growth rate of urban residents' disposable income [5][20] - The ratio of manufacturing average salary to financial industry salary has increased, reaching its highest level since 2012, indicating a favorable environment for talent influx into manufacturing [5][20] Profitability Issues - Manufacturing companies are experiencing profitability pressure, with operating profit declining by 12.2% year-on-year in 2024, and the operating profit margin dropping from 6.6% in 2023 to 5.7% in 2024 [6][24] - The profitability pressure index for the industrial sector has risen to 10.5%, indicating increased pressure compared to 7.7% in 2023 [6][25] Investment Returns - The estimated investment return for manufacturing listed companies is approximately 5.4% in 2024, down from 6.4% in the previous year, marking a decline in absolute levels [7][33] - Despite the overall decline, certain sectors such as leather, computer communication electronics, and general equipment have shown a rebound in investment returns [7][33] Asset and Liability Issues - Total assets of manufacturing listed companies grew by 5.1% year-on-year in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [8][36] - The asset-liability ratio has continued to rise, reaching 52% in 2024, indicating increasing debt levels [8][36] Cash Flow - The accounts receivable turnover days increased to 57.1 days in 2024, indicating greater collection pressure [9][45] - The growth rate of monetary funds for non-financial A-share companies turned negative at -1.9% in 2024, with manufacturing experiencing a significant decline to -2.8% [9][45] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for manufacturing listed companies decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in 2024, contrasting with a growth of 3.4% in the previous year [10][48] - Newly listed companies have shown a significant increase in capital expenditure, with a growth rate of 23.7% in 2023-2024, indicating a divergence from established firms [10][48] Financing Issues - The growth rate of interest-bearing debt for manufacturing listed companies slowed to 6.8% in 2024, continuing a trend of deceleration since 2022 [11][57] - The interest burden has decreased, with the ratio of interest expenses to interest-bearing debt falling to 3.36% in 2024, indicating a reduction in debt servicing costs [11][57]

Core Viewpoint - The article forecasts that China's economy will face a dual contraction in supply and demand in 2025, with demand contraction expected to be greater than supply contraction, leading to overall economic performance remaining below potential levels [2][4][34]. Economic Review of 2024 - China's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, successfully meeting the annual target, but showing a decline from 2023 [5][4]. - The total GDP for 2024 is estimated at 13,490.84 billion RMB, with quarterly growth rates fluctuating throughout the year [5]. - Effective demand remains insufficient, significantly impacting GDP growth, with consumption and investment both showing signs of weakness [5][9]. Supply Side Analysis - Industrial output in 2024 is expected to grow by 5.8%, indicating a recovery in the industrial economy, with variations across different types of enterprises and regions [6][7]. - High-tech industries are identified as key growth points for future industrial development [7]. Demand Side Analysis - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, reflecting a decline in consumer spending compared to previous years [8]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 3.2%, but with a downward trend throughout the year, particularly in real estate, which is projected to decline by 10.6% [9][10]. Price Trends - The inflation rate is expected to remain low, with CPI growth at 0.2% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating ongoing demand insufficiency [10][11]. Monetary and Financial Conditions - New RMB loans are projected to decrease significantly, with a total of 18.09 trillion RMB in new loans, reflecting a 20.46% decline from 2023 [12][13]. - M2 growth is expected at 7.3%, indicating a stable but low level of liquidity in the market [13]. Factors Influencing 2025 Economic Outlook - Population decline and aging are expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic growth challenges [15]. - Weak market expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in U.S.-China relations, are anticipated to hinder economic recovery [16][20][22]. Natural Economic Trends for 2025 - Consumption is expected to show a slight increase, driven by policy support and consumer demand for upgrades [23]. - Investment growth is projected to stabilize, influenced by prior policy effects and ongoing structural adjustments [25]. - Export and import totals are expected to rise, although geopolitical tensions may pose challenges [26]. Supply Side Trends - The potential growth rate is likely to decline due to demographic changes, technological restrictions, and fluctuating energy prices [27]. - Labor force participation is expected to decrease, further impacting economic output [28]. Summary of Economic Challenges - The economy is projected to face dual contractions in supply and demand, with GDP growth potentially declining compared to 2024 [34]. - Key risks include real estate market instability, local government debt issues, and international geopolitical tensions [35][36][40]. Policy Outlook for 2025 - The GDP growth target is set around 5.0%, with CPI growth aimed at approximately 3% [42][43]. - Employment pressures are expected to increase, with a target of over 12 million new urban jobs [44]. - A combination of demand and supply management policies will be implemented to stimulate economic growth [46].

刘伟等：2025年中国经济形势展望与政策预期 热点聚焦 内容摘要： 2024年中国GDP同比增长5.0%，经济运行"总体平稳、稳中有进"，顺利 完成年初制定的5%左右增速目标。展望2025年，全国人口减少、市场预期偏弱、支 柱产业调整、地缘政治风险、能源格局变动等国内外因素仍将影响中国经济发展。中 国经济自然走势将是供给、需求双收缩的格局，且需求收缩大于供给，整体依然低于 潜在水平。房地产风险、地方债务风险、汇率及货币风险、贸易摩擦风险等将成为未 来中国经济发展的潜在风险点。鉴于此，2025年的政策目标仍需以需求端作为主要发 力点，同时，对供给端的稳定运行和市场环境的持续改善提供必要的支持，宏观调控 政策组合应该以需求、供给双扩张为主，以市场环境管理为辅。 全文字数 | 约13000字 2024年是实现"十四五"规划目标任务的关键一年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领下， 沉着应变，综合施策，我国经济运行总体平稳，稳中有进。数据显示，2024年我国GDP同比增长 5.0%，顺利完成年初制定的增速目标。 展望2025年，中国宏观经济运行的自然走势将是供给、需求双 收缩的格局，且需求收缩大于供给，低于潜在水平 ...