"两贴息"政策的有效落实，不仅倚重12日发布的两个实施方案，更需营造有利于政策有效落实的实施 场景，配套相关细则，最大化拓展政策在经济社会的可能性边界。 当前最为突出的是消费意愿和能力问题，即能消费和敢消费。13日央行发布的7月金融数据中，新增 信贷为负值，创有统计以来的最低值。其中，居民贷款方面，7月住户贷款减少4893亿元，同比多减 2793亿元，短期贷款减少3827亿元，同比多减1671亿元，中长期贷款减少1100亿元，同比多减 1200亿元。 显然，居民消费意愿和能力，目前都存在一定压力。居民不愿举债消费，主要缘于两个层面：一是对 未来存在不安感。如随着AI技术的推进，担忧现有工种将来是否还存在；近年来单位GDP增长提供 的就业岗位呈边际收敛，也增加了人们的就业焦虑和收入焦虑。 2025.08. 15 本文字数：1643，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 一财评论员 惠民生、促消费再添"国补"新工具。 12日，四部门发布《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施 方案》。消费是经济增长的重要引擎。"两贴息"政策作为中央层面首次实施的新"国补"措施，反映决 策层正在通过强化财政和 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the introduction of new fiscal subsidy tools to stimulate consumption and economic growth, reflecting a strategic shift in China's development model [1] - The "two interest subsidy" policies are the first of their kind at the central level, aiming to enhance the multiplier effect of public financial resources and explore the boundaries of economic development [1][4] - The effective implementation of these policies requires creating a favorable environment and supporting details to maximize their potential impact on the economy and society [1] Group 2 - Current financial data indicates a significant decline in consumer willingness and ability to spend, with a notable drop in household loans and overall credit [2] - The reluctance to borrow for consumption stems from concerns about future job security and economic stability, leading to increased precautionary savings among households [2] - The article suggests that without addressing the underlying issues of income growth and consumer confidence, the "two interest subsidy" policies may face challenges in generating effective demand, particularly in the service sector [2][3] Group 3 - To ensure the success of the new subsidy policies, it is essential to create an environment that promotes income growth and a fair employment market, moving away from investment-driven models [3] - Enhancing social security and protective systems is crucial for alleviating residents' concerns about future uncertainties, which in turn can stimulate consumption and economic circulation [3][4] - The article concludes that leveraging consumption as a credit tool requires addressing both market access and social welfare to transform consumer aspirations into actual spending [4]

要让政策真正有效落地，需营造增加市场需求弹性的消费场景。 惠民生、促消费再添"国补"新工具。 12日，四部门发布《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方 案》。消费是经济增长的重要引擎。"两贴息"政策作为中央层面首次实施的新"国补"措施，反映决策层 正在通过强化财政和金融联动，推进消费增长的战略布局，坚定中国发展模式转型的信心，是经济补短 板和强化发展自主可控逻辑的重要举措。 决策层用不断进取的实际行动，探索最大化公共财政资金的乘数效应。为此，"两贴息"政策推进的意义 并不完全在于市场实效，也在于政策积极有为的试错本身，为探寻经济的发展边界提供更多努力。 7月金融数据还显示，实体信贷需求不足，票据冲量正在撑起新增信贷，企业新增贷款同比少增，尤其 是中长期贷款减少2600亿元，同比多减3900亿元等。这些数据其实是市场主体微观动机的汇聚。 二是损失规避效应引发的居民避险行为。数据显示，前七个月住户存款增加9.66万亿元，新增存款同比 增速高于GDP增速，这反映居民正在将更多可支配收入以预防性储蓄形式应对未来的不确定性。 "两贴息"政策的有效落实，不仅倚重12日发布的两个实施方案， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the introduction of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate consumer spending in China, especially in light of the slowing growth in retail sales [1][3] - In June, China's total retail sales of consumer goods saw a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, indicating a need for policy intervention to boost consumption [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that in the first half of the year, total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.0% year-on-year, while service retail sales increased by 5.3%, providing strong support for economic recovery [3] Group 2 - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and trade-in policies is expected to enhance consumer growth prospects in the second half of the year [1][3] - The government aims to stimulate large-scale consumption upgrades and improve service consumption support policies to unleash the potential of new consumption [3] - The combination of various consumption expansion policies, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies, is anticipated to further activate the market's vitality and potential [3]

Core Insights - Croatia's retail consumption has experienced a continuous year-on-year growth for 27 months, with a significant increase of 7.5% in June, surpassing the previous month's growth of 2.6% [2] - The retail trade turnover report indicates a month-on-month actual growth of 3.5% in June, adjusted for calendar effects [2] - The retail turnover for food, beverages, and tobacco products increased by 3.6%, while non-food retail turnover, excluding automotive fuel and lubricants, surged by 11.5% [2] - Consumption remains the largest component of Croatia's GDP, and the growth in retail sales in June suggests stable economic growth for the second quarter of this year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined marginally, and the economic momentum of the manufacturing industry also showed a marginal decline, indicating downward pressure on the overall economy. However, the Politburo meeting has set a positive policy tone, and the economy is expected to make steady progress. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and incremental policies may be introduced when economic data shows continuous downward pressure [3][7]. - The Fed's Powell made relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting. The Fed's core goals are employment and inflation. The inflation data in June was pushed up by rising commodity prices, slightly exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Marginal Decline, Policy Still Has Resilience 3.1.1 Manufacturing PMI Marginal Decline - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations, and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The new export order index dropped to 47.1%. The raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Tone Continues to Be Proactive and Effective - The Politburo meeting at the end of July continued the previous policy tone and further clarified the intensity and direction of policy efforts in the second half of the year. The decision - makers are aware of the economic situation, acknowledging that while the economy has shown good performance in the first half, there are still potential risks in the second half. The consumer demand is weak, and corporate profit growth is negative, with over - capacity in some industries [9]. - The policy space in the second half of the year is sufficient, and fiscal and monetary policies will work together. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, which may be implemented when overseas interest - rate pressure eases and domestic economic pressure increases. Service consumption may become a new engine for consumption growth in the second half of the year, and the stock market's allocation value is gradually emerging [12][17][19]. 3.1.3 Focus on US Inflation and Employment Data - The inflation data in June slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising commodity prices. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed paused interest - rate cuts as expected, and there was internal disagreement. Powell's speech sent a hawkish signal, and the subsequent path of inflation is uncertain, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts may fluctuate with economic data [21]. 3.2 Key Economic Data and Events to Focus On 3.2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the release of the national childcare subsidy plan, market regulation of inferior and low - price competition, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Key economic data shows that the total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to June was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24][27]. 3.2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, the Treasury Department significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and there were internal differences. There were also issues related to tariffs, employment, and economic growth. Geopolitical events included Trump's stance on Russia, and cease - fire agreements in Thailand and Cambodia [28][34]. 3.3 Key Events and Data to Focus on Next Week - The table lists key events and data to be released next week, including US treasury bill auction rates, eurozone PPI, US export and import volumes, and Chinese CPI and PPI data [36]. 3.4 Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes - The report provides charts of domestic stock index trends, bond market trends, and various commodity index trends, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and various South China commodity indices [38].

Group 1 - The overall economic performance in China is stable with improvements in exports and consumption growth, while facing challenges from the real estate market and external uncertainties [1][2] - The real estate market remains a significant negative factor for economic performance, with sales declining over 10% year-on-year in major cities and liquidity pressures on developers [3][4][5] - Real estate investment is expected to fluctuate around -10%, contributing to a decline in nominal GDP growth by 0.75 percentage points [5][6] Group 2 - Private investment growth is weak, with a continuous decline in fixed asset investment since 2023, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market [6][7] - Structural issues, including market access restrictions and increased regulatory scrutiny, are contributing to the low enthusiasm for private investment [6][7] - Consumer spending may face challenges due to potential resource shortages in policy support and a conservative consumption attitude among residents [7][8] Group 3 - Export performance is under pressure from U.S. tariffs and trade barriers, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries [8][9] - Domestic demand remains weak, leading to structural deflationary pressures, with CPI and PPI showing declines [10][11] - Local government finances are strained due to declining land sales and high debt repayment pressures, limiting infrastructure investment capabilities [11][12] Group 4 - Monetary policy needs to improve coordination with fiscal policy to effectively support economic growth [12][13] - There is a need for targeted measures to support the real estate sector and enhance liquidity for developers [14][15] - Increased support for private enterprises and consumer spending is essential to stimulate economic activity [16][17] Group 5 - Recommendations include expanding fiscal support for trade enterprises and enhancing capital market stability through various financial tools [20][21][22] - The government should implement measures to alleviate the financial burden on local governments and improve their investment capabilities [23][24] - A proactive monetary policy approach is necessary to address deflationary pressures and stabilize the economy [24][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, achieving a growth rate of 5.3%, and is expected to maintain a stable and positive development trend in the second half [1][2] - The external environment is undergoing significant changes, with increased geopolitical tensions and weakened global economic growth, impacting China's economic transition from old to new growth drivers [1] - Consumer spending is highlighted as a key area of growth, with retail sales reaching 24.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] Group 2 - Experts indicate that while there are supports for stable growth and high-quality development in the second half, uncertainties in the external environment and domestic demand issues remain significant challenges [2] - Recommendations for policy design include preparing growth-oriented policies, accelerating the implementation of reform policies, deepening open policies particularly in the service sector, and strengthening stability policies related to employment and livelihood [2]

Group 1 - The night economy is experiencing robust growth, with various cities launching themed activities to stimulate nighttime consumption, such as the "2025 Unnight Chongqing Life Festival" and the "2025 Night Life Festival" in Shanghai, featuring over 200 and 130 themed events respectively [1] - Cities are exploring the integration of the night economy with cultural tourism, technology, and sports, which has led to increased local consumption and tourism, making it a significant driver of domestic demand [1] - Despite the current growth, there is still untapped potential in the night economy, and further efforts in cultural empowerment and business innovation are needed to sustain its momentum [1] Group 2 - Enhancing the "cultural added value" of the night economy is crucial, with successful examples like the Dunhuang night market in Gansu and the "Datang Unnight City" in Xi'an showcasing local cultural integration [2] - Utilizing technology to drive business innovation and enrich nighttime consumption experiences, such as immersive night tours using AR/VR, is essential for future development [3] - Strengthening policy guidance and establishing a multi-departmental collaborative mechanism will promote the standardized development of the night economy, including optimizing transportation and safety measures [3]

Group 1 - The average economic growth rate in China during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan reached 5.5% [1] - China's R&D investment intensity has surpassed the EU average, currently at 2.68% of GDP, indicating a significant advancement in the innovation system [2][4] - A new innovation-driven development model has emerged in China, characterized by a large-scale market system fostering substantial innovation [5] Group 2 - To achieve new consumption growth, it is essential to stabilize income growth, which includes wages, property income, transfer income, and business income [8] - There is a need for a comprehensive plan to stabilize public expectations regarding current and future income [8] - Significant breakthroughs in demand structure, particularly in service consumption, are necessary for new growth points [8] Group 3 - There is a discrepancy between macroeconomic data and micro-level perceptions of growth, with different demographics experiencing varying levels of economic benefit [9] - To enhance the sense of gain among marginal groups, overall reform plans should be implemented to increase the proportion of the middle class and significantly boost social security spending [11]