行 行业月报 业 春节假期消费较火热，上海市优化地产政策 研 ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业 3 月投资策略展望 | 究 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | | SAC | NO： | S1150521120002 | 2026 | 年 03 | 月 02 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 轻工制造 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | 纺织服饰 行业要闻 （1）消费旺、出游火、年味足，亮眼数据彰显新年"开门红"。 证券分析师 （2）上海出台《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》。 袁艺博 yuanyb@bhzq.com 行业发展情况 022-23839135 （1）2025 年，社会消费品零售总额家具类为 2,091.90 亿元，同比增长 14.62%。 研子究行助业理评级 家居用品 中性 （2）2025 年，社会消费品零售总额服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类为 15,214.60 亿元，同比增长 3.18%。 重要公司公告 券 纺织制造 中性 （1）太阳纸业：公司 2025 年归母净利润 ...

来源：作者：解放日报 吴丹璐 2月27日，记者从国家税务总局上海市税务局获悉，2026年春节假期，上海消费相关行业日均开票销售 收入同比增长12.6%，餐饮、电影、文旅等多个市场热度攀升，带动整体消费实现平稳较快增长。 具体来看，增值税发票数据显示，春节假期，上海市百货零售开票销售收入同比增长183.5%，互联网 零售开票销售收入同比增长162.1%，娱乐业开票销售收入同比增长151.4%，旅行社及相关服务开票销 售收入同比增长35.7%，餐饮开票销售收入同比增长33.1%。 消费火热背后也有政策激励的因素。2月12日，上海正式启动"乐享消费 有奖发票"大型抽奖活动，为新 春餐饮消费"添了一把火"。单笔消费满百元就能参与抽奖，进一步激活了消费潜力。 原标题：《上海春节消费市场火热，日均开票收入同比增长12.6%》 栏目主编：孟群舒 （来源：上观新闻） ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth in retail sales during the Spring Festival holiday in China, with a notable increase in consumer spending across various categories [2] Retail Performance - Major retail enterprises in China reported a daily average retail sales growth of 24.0% year-on-year during the Spring Festival [2] - The jewelry sector, particularly gold and silver, saw a significant increase in daily average retail sales, growing by 33.4% year-on-year [2] Consumer Trends - The trend of "reverse New Year" has intensified, with population movement favoring large cities, leading to a surge in jewelry sales in first-tier cities [2] - Strong demand for festive gatherings contributed to a 23.0% year-on-year increase in daily average retail sales of food items [2] - Clothing sales also experienced growth, with a 17.3% year-on-year increase in daily average retail sales, particularly in the sportswear category [2] - The trade-in policy has positively impacted the telecommunications equipment sector, resulting in double-digit growth in daily average retail sales [2]

2026年春节长假收官，餐饮、旅游、出行等消费市场势头强劲，实现马年"开门稳"。商务大数据显示， 假期前两天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额较2025年春节前两天增长10.6%。据美团数据，地方 特色美食成为出游的重要选择。春节期间，必吃榜餐厅的搜索量较节前增长60%，汕头、洛阳、徐州、 长沙、厦门成为Top5"味蕾游"目的地。(中国经济网记者梁木秦佳鸣郭文培) ...

此外，离境退税销售额超8000万元，同比增长1.5倍；外地来沪消费金额达173.9亿元，同比增长5.4%。 各区发放超1.1亿元消费券，带动零售餐饮消费超5亿元，核销率超80%。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 观点网讯：2月23日，上海市商务委披露，2026年春节假期（2月15日至22日，腊月廿八至正月初六）， 上海全市线上线下消费总额达603.5亿元，同比增长12.8%。其中，线下消费金额为365.5亿元，同比增 长15.4%；线上消费金额为238.0亿元，同比增长8.9%。 春节期间，上海持续推进"跨年迎新消费季"活动，六大主题如商圈寻马、新春美食等轮番上演，19个市 级商圈合计实现消费47.8亿元，同比增长12.0%，日均客流达319万人次，同比增长15.8%。多个重点商 圈表现亮眼：南京西路商圈销售额同比增长28.1%，北外滩商圈增长36.0%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in consumer spending during the Spring Festival period in Shanghai, with total consumption reaching 603.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [1] - Offline consumption amounted to 365.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.4% increase year-on-year, while online consumption was 238.0 billion yuan, growing by 8.9% [1] Group 2 - The "New Year Consumption Season" activities in Shanghai featured over 300 events daily, effectively stimulating market vitality and attracting large crowds to various commercial districts [6] - The 19 major commercial districts recorded a total consumption of 47.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and an average daily foot traffic of 3.19 million, up by 15.8% [7] - Specific commercial areas like Nanjing East Road and Huaihai Middle Road saw sales increases of 30% and 23.7% respectively, driven by themed events and promotions [7] Group 3 - Restaurant consumption in the city increased by 15.2% year-on-year, with many merchants reporting significant growth in sales due to special meal packages and online promotions [8] - The "Old for New" program for home appliances and digital products generated sales of 2.99 billion yuan, with 815 participating companies during the same period [10] Group 4 - The total sales from tax refunds for foreign visitors exceeded 80 million yuan, marking a 150% increase year-on-year, with tourists from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and several countries leading in refund amounts [11] - Various districts distributed over 110 million yuan in consumer vouchers, resulting in a total retail and dining consumption exceeding 500 million yuan, with a redemption rate above 80% [12]

Core Insights - Shanghai's online and offline consumption reached 60.35 billion yuan from February 15 to 22, marking a 12.8% year-on-year increase [1] - Offline consumption accounted for 36.55 billion yuan, up 15.4%, while online consumption was 23.8 billion yuan, increasing by 8.9% [1] Consumption Trends - Major commercial districts in Shanghai organized various events to stimulate consumer activity, resulting in a total consumption of 4.78 billion yuan across 19 monitored districts, a 12.0% increase [1] - Daily foot traffic averaged 3.19 million, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year growth [1] Specific District Performance - Nanjing East Road saw a 30% increase in sales due to its "Welcoming the New Year" activities [2] - The Yuyuan district's sales grew by 22.1% with its new spring lantern festival [2] - Huaihai Middle Road's sales rose by 23.7% through its themed events [2] - The Lujiazui area reported a 27.8% increase in sales with its "Modern Journey" activities [2] - The North Bund achieved a remarkable 36.0% sales growth through its large-scale light art installations [2] Restaurant and Food Sector - Restaurant consumption in Shanghai increased by 15.2%, with 567 merchants offering 1,136 preferred meal sets, leading to significant revenue growth for 80% of participating merchants [3] - Online food maps contributed to a 36.7% increase in dine-in revenue for 1,194 participating merchants [3] Consumer Electronics and Automotive - Sales in home appliances and digital products reached 299 million yuan due to new subsidy measures [3] - The automotive sector saw 13,000 participants in purchase subsidy programs, with individual subsidies ranging from 3,000 to 20,000 yuan [3] Tax Refunds and External Consumption - Tax refunds for outbound tourists reached over 80 million yuan, a 150% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from tourists from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Russia, South Korea, and the USA [3][4] Regional Consumer Incentives - Various districts issued consumer vouchers, with over 110 million yuan distributed since January, leading to over 500 million yuan in retail and dining consumption [4] - Huangpu district's promotional activities generated 125 million yuan in sales [5] - Pudong district's 20 million yuan in consumer vouchers led to 86 million yuan in sales [5]

然而，美联储官员近期的表态显示，货币政策转向并不急于一时。达拉斯联储主席洛根明确表示，当前更担忧通胀持续处于高位，并对现有政策利率能否推 动通胀回归2%目标持"谨慎乐观"态度。她强调，未来几个月的数据将验证当前政策立场是否适宜，若通胀下降同时劳动力市场明显走弱，降息才可能成为 合适选项。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也持类似观点，认为政策利率可能"在相当长一段时间内维持不变"，并预计今年通胀率仍可能接近3%，与此前两年水 平相当。 研究机构凯投宏观指出，尽管12月单月数据疲弱尚不足以完全否定去年第四季度的消费表现，但结合2026年1月大部分地区遭遇极端寒冬天气可能进一步抑 制消费活动，2026年第一季度消费增长预计将显著放缓。这一判断如果成立，或将加剧经济动能减弱的压力。 整体来看，12月零售数据意外走弱，暴露出美国消费复苏的基础并不牢固，尤其在中低收入群体中显得更为明显。在通胀仍高于目标、劳动力市场尚未明显 降温的背景下，美联储的政策路径仍将高度依赖后续经济数据的表现。消费动能的可持续性，将成为影响2026年上半年美国经济与货币政策走向的关键观测 变量。 美国2025年12月零售销售数据的发布，揭示出消费者支出动能 ...

该行将老铺2025至2027年的盈利预测上调1%至7%，预计其在今年实现49%的按年盈利增长；预测老铺 在2025至2027年将实现销售额、净利润年均复合增长率达77%、82%；而老铺下一次涨价可能在2月底 左右。摩通将老铺估值期限延展至2026年12月，并维持以现金流量折现法予目标价1296港元，评级"增 持"，为该行在中国消费板块的首选，潜在的短期催化剂包括：1月、2月春节期间零售销售表现；产品 价格上涨即将来临，及海外扩张。 摩根大通发表研报指，对老铺黄金的春节消费表现比市场更为乐观，原因是品牌权益提升、新产品推 出、吸引新客户、现有客户重复购买及金价走势有利。集团表现稳健下，应能缓解投资者对近期高基数 效应及金价波动下对消费者行为的担忧。认为其凭借系统性发展策略(如门店扩张审慎、直销模式及由 精选/培训团队提供的差异化服务质量)最能从体验式增长中获益。 ...

Core Insights - The national business conference emphasized "stimulating consumption vitality in lower-tier markets" as a core task for the 2026 action plan, highlighting the government's focus on tapping into the consumption potential of county and town markets [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The lower-tier markets, represented by third and fourth-tier cities and counties, account for 70% of China's population and 60% of total retail sales of consumer goods, making them one of the fastest-growing and most potential-rich areas for consumption [1] - There are over 900 million consumers in the lower-tier markets, characterized by a large population base, high marginal potential, and rapid structural upgrades, with consumption shifting from basic needs to a parallel development of quality, service, and digitalization [2] Group 2: Emerging Trends - The trend of "quality sinking" and "experience sinking" is emerging as lower-tier markets transition from demographic dividends to value dividends, indicating a shift in consumer expectations towards higher quality and better experiences [2] - The rise of lower-tier markets is driving a significant transformation in urban-rural dynamics, with consumers in these areas increasingly demanding better products, services, and experiences due to rising incomes and evolving consumer mindsets [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Lower-tier market consumers are no longer solely price-sensitive; they exhibit three new consumption characteristics: heightened sensitivity to quality, reinforced social attributes influencing purchasing decisions, and a redefined concept of value that prioritizes reasonable pricing for equivalent quality or significant quality improvements at slightly higher prices [4] - The current consumer landscape in lower-tier markets reflects a shift towards valuing quality and service experience, with a growing emphasis on local product innovation and standardized service networks to meet regional demands [4]