据央视新闻，当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大 幅降息"。 特朗普称："我认为会有一次大幅降息。"若成真，这将是美联储自去年12月以来首次降息。 美联储将于9月16日和17日召开货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储届时将开启新一轮降息。 目前来看，市场已经确信美联储将会至少降息25个基点，但降息50个基点的难度很大。据CME"美联储 观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率达96.4%，降息50个基点的概率仅为3.6%。有分析指出，本周 美联储会议声明的措辞、利率点阵图以及投票结果，将是判断美联储未来货币政策走向的关键。 美联储将传达"鸽派"基调 9月12日，美国8月通胀数据及周度申请失业金人数公布，至此，美联储议息会议前关键经济指标已全部 公布。从数据来看，通胀受到关税政策推动，劳动力市场趋弱。 美东时间9月10日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国8月PPI环比意外转负，为四个月来的首次。 对于投资者而言，本周美联储会议声明的措辞、利率点阵图以及投票结果，将是判断美联储未来政策走 向的关键。 IUR Capital的董事总经理Gareth Ryan认为，利率点阵图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by President Trump and market analysts, with a focus on the implications for the economy and financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - President Trump anticipates a "large rate cut" from the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut for the first time since December of the previous year, with a 96.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut and only a 3.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3]. - The upcoming meeting's statement, dot plot, and voting results will be crucial for determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Recent economic data, including a negative Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and weak labor market signals, suggest a "dovish" tone from the Federal Reserve [4][5][6]. - Financial markets are optimistic about a new rate cut cycle, with asset prices reaching high levels, including record highs for major stock indices [6]. - Analysts predict that the combination of moderate inflation and a weak labor market will facilitate the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate cut cycle, with expectations of a total reduction of 125 basis points over the next five meetings [10]. Group 3: Unemployment and Economic Growth Forecasts - The Congressional Budget Office has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the U.S. while raising projections for inflation and unemployment rates [11]. - The unemployment rate for African Americans has sharply increased, highlighting a crisis for this demographic amid a weakening labor market [12][15]. - The report indicates that the unemployment rate for African Americans reached 7.5% in August, significantly higher than the national average, reflecting broader economic challenges [15].

Market Review - Gold opened high at around 3452 but faced resistance and retreated, fluctuating between 3410-3423 during the European session, and eventually dropped to a low of 3383 during the US session before closing at 3405, forming a bearish engulfing pattern [1] News Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have significantly boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly damaged around 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, resulting in civilian casualties [1] - The situation remains uncertain, with Iran's foreign minister indicating potential flexibility in nuclear negotiations if the US pushes for a ceasefire, while Trump has urged Iran to sign a nuclear deal, adding to the unpredictability [1] - Key economic data, specifically the US retail sales month-on-month figures, are anticipated to influence market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates a transition from consecutive gains to a bearish trend, with a focus on the strong support level at 3380. The long-term trend remains bullish as all moving averages are aligned positively [2] - On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' lower boundary and the MA20 moving average converge around the 3345-3335 range, marking a critical short-term support level. A breach below this could signal a deeper correction [2] - The hourly chart shows a five-wave upward structure from a low of 3293, with 3452 potentially marking the third wave peak. Currently, gold is in the fourth wave adjustment phase, and attention should be on signals indicating the end of this phase [2] Upcoming Risk Events - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a key variable for the short term, with a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. The market will focus on forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell. A hawkish signal could strengthen the dollar and reduce gold's appeal, while a dovish tone may provide support for gold at critical technical levels [4] Trading Strategy - The current outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on buying during pullbacks, setting a stop-loss below 3380. Short positions can be considered near the resistance level around 3410, with the upper Bollinger Band at 3420 also acting as a significant barrier. The market is currently in a range-bound phase, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within the 3380-3420 range [6]