每日市场洞察– 2025年12月11日 | Ultima Markets 全球市场对美联储广泛预期的25个基点降息作出反应，将目标利率区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。虽然降息已被充分计入，市场注意力迅速转向美联储 的声明及2026年最新预测。 美联储最新动态：鹰派降息，但带有鸽派基调 12月决议体现了典型的"鹰派降息"——美联储放松政策，但对未来降息步伐保持谨慎。主要要点： ·点阵图显示降息次数减少：中位数预测显示2026年仅有一次降息，低于市场预期，反映通胀持续担忧。这消除了过度激进的宽松押注，并支撑美 元。 12月SEP提供政策决策背景，显示潜在鸽派偏向：核心PCE通胀：预计2026年降至2.5%；总体PCE通胀：预计为2.4%。 ·投票分歧：9名官员支持降息，2名维持不变，1名投票支持50个基点降幅，凸显内部对宽松路径的争论。 ·市场解读：尽管宽松正在进行，美联储仍对通胀风险保持谨慎，抑制市场对快速或长期降息周期的预期。 尽管点阵图偏鹰，但鲍威尔主席新闻发布会及12月经济预测摘要（SEP）传递了更为鸽派的基调。 鲍威尔声明：灵活且数据依赖 鲍威尔强调未来利率调整不设固定路径，政策保持数据依赖： ·作为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a significant interest rate cut during its upcoming meeting, with a high probability of at least a 25 basis point reduction [1][2][4] - Market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, influenced by recent economic indicators such as inflation and labor market conditions [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making will be closely scrutinized, particularly the language used in the meeting statement, the dot plot, and voting results, which will signal future monetary policy directions [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. economy's growth forecast has been downgraded, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a 1.4% growth in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 1.9% [5][6] - Inflation is expected to rise to 3.1%, significantly higher than the previous forecast of 2.2%, while the unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][6] - The rising unemployment rate among African American individuals has been highlighted as a critical issue, with a current rate of 7.5%, indicating a worsening labor market situation [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by President Trump and market analysts, with a focus on the implications for the economy and financial markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - President Trump anticipates a "large rate cut" from the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut for the first time since December of the previous year, with a 96.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut and only a 3.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3]. - The upcoming meeting's statement, dot plot, and voting results will be crucial for determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Recent economic data, including a negative Producer Price Index (PPI) for August and weak labor market signals, suggest a "dovish" tone from the Federal Reserve [4][5][6]. - Financial markets are optimistic about a new rate cut cycle, with asset prices reaching high levels, including record highs for major stock indices [6]. - Analysts predict that the combination of moderate inflation and a weak labor market will facilitate the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate cut cycle, with expectations of a total reduction of 125 basis points over the next five meetings [10]. Group 3: Unemployment and Economic Growth Forecasts - The Congressional Budget Office has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the U.S. while raising projections for inflation and unemployment rates [11]. - The unemployment rate for African Americans has sharply increased, highlighting a crisis for this demographic amid a weakening labor market [12][15]. - The report indicates that the unemployment rate for African Americans reached 7.5% in August, significantly higher than the national average, reflecting broader economic challenges [15].

Market Review - Gold opened high at around 3452 but faced resistance and retreated, fluctuating between 3410-3423 during the European session, and eventually dropped to a low of 3383 during the US session before closing at 3405, forming a bearish engulfing pattern [1] News Analysis - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, have significantly boosted gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly damaged around 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran has retaliated with missile strikes, resulting in civilian casualties [1] - The situation remains uncertain, with Iran's foreign minister indicating potential flexibility in nuclear negotiations if the US pushes for a ceasefire, while Trump has urged Iran to sign a nuclear deal, adding to the unpredictability [1] - Key economic data, specifically the US retail sales month-on-month figures, are anticipated to influence market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily chart indicates a transition from consecutive gains to a bearish trend, with a focus on the strong support level at 3380. The long-term trend remains bullish as all moving averages are aligned positively [2] - On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' lower boundary and the MA20 moving average converge around the 3345-3335 range, marking a critical short-term support level. A breach below this could signal a deeper correction [2] - The hourly chart shows a five-wave upward structure from a low of 3293, with 3452 potentially marking the third wave peak. Currently, gold is in the fourth wave adjustment phase, and attention should be on signals indicating the end of this phase [2] Upcoming Risk Events - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a key variable for the short term, with a high probability of maintaining current interest rates. The market will focus on forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell. A hawkish signal could strengthen the dollar and reduce gold's appeal, while a dovish tone may provide support for gold at critical technical levels [4] Trading Strategy - The current outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on buying during pullbacks, setting a stop-loss below 3380. Short positions can be considered near the resistance level around 3410, with the upper Bollinger Band at 3420 also acting as a significant barrier. The market is currently in a range-bound phase, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within the 3380-3420 range [6]