Core Insights - The gold market remains in a downward channel, indicating that the core factors driving this weakness may continue to evolve [1] - There is a focus on optimizing trading strategies in response to the current market conditions [1] Market Analysis - The ongoing analysis suggests that the bearish trend in gold prices has not yet been broken, prompting discussions on potential future movements [1] - The live analysis aims to dissect both bullish and bearish logic to provide a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Current spot gold trading is around $3364.89, with a slight decline of 0.05% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - On July 24, gold prices faced resistance at 3393, entering a downward channel, with a low of 3351 reached during the trading session [4] - The overall structure shows that the upward channel initiated on June 26 remains valid, with key support levels at 3339 and 3324, while resistance is significantly higher at around 3450 [4][5] Group 2 - Mexican President is working to avoid a 30% tariff on exports to the U.S. starting August 1, following President Trump's announcement on July 12 [3] - The potential for negotiations with Trump is being considered if an agreement is not reached [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a range-bound consolidation between $3300 and $3400, with specific resistance and support levels identified for trading strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The international gold price has shown a rebound, breaking through the morning high of $3342, with a cautionary note that a drop below $3300 would signal the end of the bearish trend [3]. - The weekly adjustment phase appears to be nearing its conclusion, with the gold price returning to the original range, facing resistance at $3355-$3360 and support at $3328, $3320/$3315 [3][4]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests buying near the support level of $3328, and if it breaks, to focus on the $3320-$3315 range for potential upward movement towards $3333-$3348 [4]. - A short position is recommended near the resistance level of $3355, with a targeted profit range of $10-$15 [4]. - Emphasis is placed on maintaining a disciplined trading approach, avoiding over-leveraging, and adhering to a well-defined strategy for sustained profitability [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under pressure from hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical risks and inflation expectations provide support [1] - Short-term dynamics suggest that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict may drive safe-haven buying, but the long-term trend will be dominated by the Federal Reserve's policy path and the actual effects of trade policies [1] - Key factors to monitor include U.S. policy movements towards Iran, progress in nuclear negotiations, and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation response [1] Group 2 - Current trading strategy for gold suggests maintaining a bearish outlook, with resistance at 3385 and support in the 3330-3320 range [3] - The strategy emphasizes short positions on rebounds in the 3360-3365 area, with a stop-loss at 3388 and a target of 3340-3320 [4] - The analysis focuses on practical trading strategies rather than motivational content, aiming to provide concrete insights for traders [4]

Core Insights - The report outlines a "three-step" strategy for trading gold, focusing on long-term trends, strategic asset allocation, and short-term volatility management [6][9][11] - It emphasizes that the weakening of US dollar credit and the economic cycle in the US being in a "recession to recovery" phase could lead to a maximum drawdown of 15%-20% for gold prices [6][11] - If both long-term and strategic views on gold are bullish, short-term negative factors could result in a maximum drawdown of 0%-5% within one month, while multiple negative factors could lead to a 5%-10% drawdown over 100 days [6][11] Group 1: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy consists of three goals: determining the long-term trend of gold, analyzing its strategic allocation value, and managing short-term disturbances to control maximum drawdown [6][11] - The report suggests that the long-term trend of gold prices is influenced by US dollar credit and inflation expectations, with a bullish outlook if dollar credit weakens and inflation remains above 2% [11][14] - The asset allocation perspective indicates that stagflation is favorable for gold, while recovery phases may exert downward pressure on gold prices [11][20] Group 2: Market Conditions and Impacts - The report identifies that periods of "overheating to stagflation" are generally bullish for gold, while "recession to recovery" phases tend to be bearish [20][21] - It highlights that unexpected crises can significantly impact gold prices, with fiscal policies leading to different price movements compared to monetary policies [23][24] - The analysis shows that short-term fiscal expansion may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices, reflecting reduced short-term debt repayment pressures [24][25] Group 3: Risk Management and Investment Timing - The report provides a framework for assessing the safety margin for investing in gold, suggesting that investors should consider maximum drawdown levels before entering positions [30][31] - It outlines specific scenarios for maximum drawdowns based on various economic conditions, indicating that drawdowns could exceed 20% under aggressive rate hikes or significant fiscal expansion [32][35] - The report advises investors to wait for drawdowns of around 15% to consider building or increasing positions in gold [35][43]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current market for gold is still in a transitional phase, with potential for further price increases due to unresolved tariff issues and a "stagflation-like" environment [1][3][7] - The analysis indicates that the gold market has not yet reached a "crowded" trading zone, suggesting there is still room for additional capital inflow [17] - The article emphasizes a "buy-and-hold" strategy as more advantageous in the current market conditions, with a higher success rate for short-term trading strategies based on volume and price [18] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the article outlines four phases of gold price behavior during financial crises, indicating that the current market is transitioning from the second phase to the third phase [3][7] - The article highlights that the market's pricing of inflation and growth is not fully accounting for the potential "inflation" effects, which could further support gold prices [7] - The article provides a detailed table summarizing the attitudes of major economies towards U.S. tariff issues, indicating varying degrees of response and potential impacts on global trade [8] Group 3 - The article notes that the current gold trading volume is above the average line, but still below historical "most crowded" levels, indicating potential for further accumulation [17] - The analysis of trading strategies shows that the 5-day and 20-day moving average strategies have the highest success rates, while longer-term strategies may reduce effectiveness [18][28] - The article suggests that the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations and tariff negotiations, will continue to influence gold prices [7][29]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a technical correction, with prices dipping to $3,283 per ounce, but the overall bullish trend remains intact, supported by strong buying interest around $3,327 per ounce [1][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - The gold market showed significant volatility, with prices initially dropping to $3,283 per ounce before rebounding to around $3,330 per ounce, indicating strong bullish momentum [3] - The current market structure is still bullish, with technical analysis suggesting a potential target of $3,400 per ounce in the near term [3] - The recent price drop is viewed as a technical adjustment, aligning with market behavior where deeper pullbacks often lead to stronger rebounds [3] Group 2: Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to adopt a bullish approach, focusing on buying near the $3,300 support level, with a stop loss set at $3,290 and a target of $3,380 [3] - Investors are advised to adjust their trading pace and optimize their positions in preparation for the market's reopening next week [1]