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闫瑞祥:黄金维持极强拉升,欧美关注调整
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 04:10
Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Monday, reaching a high of 99.325 and a low of 98.808, closing at 99.231 [1] - The weekly support level is at 98, with a focus on potential mid-term bullish trends [1] - Short-term resistance is identified in the 99.10-20 range, with a need to monitor for potential adjustments if this level is breached [1] Gold - Gold prices experienced an overall increase on Monday, peaking at 4116.89 and bottoming at 4003.76, closing at 4110.44 [3] - The long-term critical level for gold is at 3130, while the weekly support is at 3585, indicating a bullish outlook above these levels [3] - Key support for short-term trading is identified at 4073-4075, with a focus on maintaining bullish positions above 4106 [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1557 and a high of 1.1629, closing at 1.1568 [5] - Long-term support is at 1.1100, while the weekly support level is at 1.1680, indicating potential pressure on the pair [5] - Short-term resistance is at 1.1670, with a need to monitor for potential upward adjustments if the price surpasses 1.1580 [5]
闫瑞祥:欧洲央行决议与美联储官员讲话,市场再迎考验
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 06:47
Macroeconomic Overview - On June 4, international gold prices rose significantly by 0.56%, driven by complex global economic conditions. Poor U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment figures falling short of expectations, led investors to seek refuge in gold, with prices reaching a peak of $3384.55 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhancing its appeal [1] - The Trump administration's tariff policies, which doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs on June 4, have severely impacted global supply chains, further highlighting gold's safe-haven value [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged, with a 77% probability for a cut in September, supported by ADP employment data and inflation pressures [1] - Investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll report on June 6, which will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices [1] U.S. Dollar Index - On June 4, the U.S. dollar index exhibited a fluctuating trend, reaching a high of 99.372 and a low of 98.646, ultimately closing at 98.789 [2] - The market showed weak continuation after an initial upward movement, leading to a significant bearish close [2] - The weekly resistance level is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices on June 4 showed an overall upward trend, with a high of $3384.55 and a low of $3343.68, closing at $3372.24 [4] - The market is currently experiencing alternating bullish and bearish trends, with a focus on whether this pattern will continue [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3320-$3322, with a critical threshold at $3360 for short-term movements [5][7] Euro and U.S. Dollar Pair - The Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate showed an overall increase on June 4, with a low of 1.1356 and a high of 1.1434, closing at 1.1412 [7] - The market remains above key support levels, indicating a bullish outlook in the medium term [7]
闫瑞祥:黄金关注日线阻力及缺口回补,欧美区间震荡对待
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 05:33
Macroeconomic Overview - The recent release of economic data from the US has shown widespread weakness, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declining by 0.5%, retail sales growth plummeting to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4%, significantly undermining market confidence in the US economy [1] - The US Treasury market experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 11 basis points and the 2-year yield falling by 9.2 basis points; the US dollar index decreased by 0.2% [1] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, with stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and difficulties in the Iran nuclear deal talks, leading to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index exhibited a downward trend, reaching a high of 101.05 and a low of 100.562, ultimately closing at 100.8 [2] - The index is currently facing resistance at the 102.90 level on a weekly basis, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while key support is identified at the 100.30 level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices showed a rebound, with a high of 3240.37 and a low of 3120.56, closing at 3229.59 [4] - The market is observing a four-month upward trend with a recent correction, and the price is supported at the 3100 level; a break below this support could lead to further downward pressure [5] - Short-term support is noted in the 3199-3200 range, with targets set at 3250, 3282, and 3325 [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The EUR/USD pair experienced an overall increase, with a low of 1.1167 and a high of 1.1227, closing at 1.1183 [8] - The market is currently supported at the 1.0800 level on a monthly basis, with a bearish outlook in the short term unless the price breaks above the daily resistance [8] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the French ILO unemployment rate, Eurozone trade balance, US new housing starts, building permits, import price index, and consumer confidence index [10]
闫瑞祥:美联储按兵不动,通胀与失业率风险上升引关注
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 05:28
Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, citing stable unemployment and a solid labor market, but high inflation and increased economic uncertainty [1] - Fed Chairman Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, noting that the effects have not yet appeared in economic data, while consumer concerns about rising prices persist [1] - Future Fed policy direction will depend on the intensification of employment and inflation risks, with a potential 50 basis point rate cut expected later this year [1] - The Fed's decision positively influenced the U.S. stock market, leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.95 and a low of 99.197, closing at 99.876 [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 103.30, while the daily level indicates a bullish bias as long as it remains above 99.40 [2] - Short-term analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with support at 99.50 and potential upward movement towards the 100-100.40 range [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced an overall increase, peaking at 3434.67 and closing at 3430.31, following a period of volatility [4] - Monthly analysis indicates a four-month upward trend with a recent correction, while weekly support is noted at 3070 [4] - Daily analysis shows that as long as prices remain above the support level of 3337, a bullish stance is maintained, with short-term caution advised if prices break below recent lows [4][6] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend, with a low of 1.1291 and a close at 1.1296 [6] - Monthly support is identified at 1.0800, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook, while weekly support is at 1.0900 [6] - Short-term analysis indicates a bearish bias until the price breaks above daily resistance levels, with current support at 1.1330-1.1340 [6]
闫瑞祥:美联储政策转向在即,全球市场屏息以待
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 03:57
Macroeconomic Overview - The global economic and political landscape is complex, significantly impacting markets and international relations [1] - The US faces multiple pressures, with a decline in 2-year Treasury yields influenced by trade deficits and corporate pessimism, raising concerns about the impact of trade wars [1] - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts this year, with the first potentially in September, although investors remain worried about insufficient policy easing and uncertain market outlook [1] - Recent international trade developments include trade agreements between India and the UK, and the US and the UK, with some UK goods exempt from tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - In the energy market, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, leading to a drop in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia warning overproduction among member countries [1] - Political developments include Ukraine approving a mineral agreement with the US, and Oman reaching a freedom of navigation agreement with the US and Yemen [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with expectations of no change in rates this time but potential future volatility [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, and between India and Pakistan, are also areas of concern for investors [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 100.077 and a low of 99.143, closing at 99.239 [2] - The dollar index faced resistance at 99.60, and traders are advised to be cautious until a breakout occurs [2] - The index is currently in a low-level consolidation phase, with key support at 98.90 [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced an overall increase, reaching a high of 3434.61 and a low of 3323.14, closing at 3430.31 [4] - The price is supported by the daily line, and further upward movement is anticipated unless a significant drop occurs [4] - The market is advised to monitor the 3340-3350 range, maintaining a bullish outlook unless this range is broken [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1279 and a high of 1.1380, closing at 1.1368 [7] - The market is supported at 1.0800 for long-term positions, while short-term fluctuations are being monitored around 1.1320-1.1380 [9]