专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员邵宇出席并演讲。 邵宇认为，2026年世界上最坚硬的三个泡沫是：第一，黄金；第二，今年震荡较多的黄金；第三，人工 智能。 邵宇认为，2026年世界上最坚硬的三个泡沫是：第一，黄金；第二，今年震荡较多的黄金；第三，人工 智能。 他指出，人工智能不只是此时，甚至是人类历史到现在最大的一次泡沫。但他同时也强调，如果把泡沫 分等级，科技泡沫是最不坏的那种，因为每一次重大的科技与产业创新都是由泡沫来牵引的。泡沫意味 着向这里投放更多资源，比方说铁路、互联网，它们都改变了人类的生活。 "我觉得泡沫并不是一个负面的词，它决定我们往哪里引导资源。"邵宇说。 "我觉得泡沫并不是一个负面的词，它决定我们往哪里引导资源。"邵宇说。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 ...

Market Overview - The gold market experienced a significant transformation in 2025, with prices soaring from around $2,600 to nearly $4,600 per ounce, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis, with a rise exceeding 70% [1][3] - London spot gold recorded an annual increase of over 60%, achieving its strongest performance in 46 years [1] Price Dynamics - The year began with gold prices fluctuating between $2,600 and $3,000 per ounce, but by March, it broke the $3,000 mark [3] - In September, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, gold saw its highest monthly increase of 11.92% [3] - By October, gold prices surpassed $4,000, and by December 26, it reached a historic high of $4,549.96 per ounce [3] Precious Metals Sector - The entire precious metals sector saw a correlated rise, with silver prices increasing nearly 150% and platinum reaching a historic high above $2,300 per ounce [4] - The traditional pricing logic of gold being strong when the dollar is weak has shifted, with a new multi-faceted market structure emerging [4] Central Bank Behavior - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from over 70% to around 58% has prompted central banks to diversify their reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings [4] - As of November, China's central bank held 7.412 million ounces of gold, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [4] Industry Impact - The surge in gold prices has led to significant stock price increases for gold-related companies, with some stocks like Zhaojin Gold rising by 228.97% [6] - Major mining companies are accelerating global acquisitions, with Zijin Mining planning to invest $1.2 billion in a large gold mine in Kazakhstan [6] Investment Trends - Investment strategies are shifting from traditional gold bars to gold ETFs and online investment products, with global physical gold ETF inflows reaching $5.2 billion in November [6] - The Chinese market led the inflows, contributing $2.2 billion [6] Consumer Behavior - High gold prices have reshaped consumer markets, with a notable resurgence in "gold crafting" businesses [7] - Retail trends indicate a preference for smaller, high-quality gold items, with companies like Laopuhuangjin seeing stock price increases of 156.22% [9] Market Speculation - Discussions around a potential "gold bubble" have emerged, with analysts noting that gold prices have exceeded long-term forecasts [10] - The market dynamics have shifted beyond traditional interest rate frameworks, focusing on a deeper reassessment of the monetary credit system [10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant price increases in 2025, with concerns about potential bubbles emerging as gold prices reach historical highs. The industry is undergoing transformations across various segments, with expectations for continued growth and changes in consumer behavior leading into 2026 [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, global gold prices surged, with London spot gold achieving a cumulative increase of over 60%, peaking at $4,550.12 per ounce, marking the strongest annual performance in 46 years [2]. - Major gold mining companies have seen substantial stock price increases, with companies like Zhaojin Gold rising by 228.97% and several others exceeding 100% growth [4]. - Zijin Mining's market capitalization has significantly increased, crossing the 880 billion yuan mark, positioning it among the top three global listed metal mining companies [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The introduction of new tax policies in November 2025 has transformed the operational landscape of the gold industry, exempting certain transactions from value-added tax and accelerating industry consolidation [6]. - The new tax framework has led to increased order volumes for compliant companies, with some reporting an 8% increase in orders from retail clients and a 15% increase from regional brand clients [6]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards traditional gold crafting and personalized jewelry, driven by rising gold prices. The demand for customized gold jewelry has surged, with significant online engagement around "gold crafting" topics [10]. - Products like low-weight gold accessories and ancient-style gold items have gained popularity, reflecting a trend towards more affordable and personalized gold purchases [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise by 15% to 30% in 2026, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [16]. - Concerns about potential bubbles in the gold market have been raised, with some analysts suggesting that current prices may exceed short-term valuation models, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [17].

黄金价格逼近历史新高！单日狂飙200美元，央行购金量创十年新高 一、价格突破与市场震荡：30年一遇的"黄金风暴" 2025年12月12日，国际金价以雷霆之势突破4300美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.17%，创下自1979年以来的最 佳年度表现。国内金饰价格同步飙升至1337-1339元/克，深圳水贝等黄金交易市场的单日调价次数高达 3-5次，部分商户甚至因价格波动暂停回购业务。更令人震惊的是，纽约期金单日暴涨2%，白银价格同 步刷新历史高点至64.31美元/盎司，贵金属市场呈现"金银共舞"的狂热局面。 这场行情的剧烈程度堪比1980年黄金泡沫顶峰时期。国际清算银行（BIS）数据显示，2025年黄金年内 涨幅近60%，白银涨幅近100%，两者价格相关性飙升至0.22（历史均值0.02），呈现罕见的同步暴涨特 征。市场交易数据显示，黄金ETF价格持续高于资产净值（NAV），杠杆交易账户占比突破35%，投机 氛围浓厚。 二、驱动因素三重奏：从货币政策到地缘博弈 1. 美联储降息引爆流动性革命 美联储年内第三次降息至3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔释放"短期加息概率极低"的鸽派信号，直接压低持有黄 金的机会成本。追踪美元兑 ...

2025年黄金价格已飙升近60%，站上4200美元/盎司，摩根大通甚至给出5300美元的乐观目标。 然而，国际清算银行最新报告警示，当前黄金与美股同步"爆炸性上涨"的局面为50年来首见，历史上此 类情形多以泡沫破裂告终。市场热情高涨之际，风险也在悄然积聚。 前言 黄金美股齐飞，是盛宴还是陷阱？ 你发现没，2025年这行情有点邪门。标普500涨了16%，黄金更猛，一年飙了60%，直接冲破4200美元 大关。 国际清算银行——就是那个"央行的央行"——12月8日一纸报告直接点破：这是至少50年来头一回，黄 金和美股同时"爆炸性上涨"。 金价还能冲多高？有人看5300，有人喊4000见 啥叫爆炸性？就是价格像坐了火箭，越涨越快，根本停不下来。可历史告诉我们，这种场面往往不是狂 欢的开始，而是泡沫破裂的前夜。 1980年黄金见顶852美元后，五年腰斩；2000年美股泡沫炸裂，标普跌掉一半。老周说句实在话，天上 不会掉馅饼，双资产齐飞的背后，往往是流动性泛滥和情绪过热在撑场子。 更值得警惕的是，散户正成这轮行情的主力推手。易方达、嘉实、汇添富的黄金基金今年多次因溢价过 高停牌，银行接连发风险提示。 与此同时，工行、中行 ...

韩联社近日发文称，今年黄金价格飙升60%，创1979年以来最高年度涨幅。特别是最近9月份以来，涨幅 达到20%。随着普通投资者的资金涌入，黄金ETF价格超过了净资产价值（NAV），而各国央行连续购 金加剧了金价上涨的预期。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间12月12日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨2.00% 报4309.30美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨4.83%报63.98美元/盎司。分析人士称，美联储年内第三次降息 至3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔表态增强宽松预期，对金价构成支撑。 报道还提到，短期交易者的追逐导致黄金价格迅速上升，这使得它不再是安全资产，而是投机资产。黄 金投机行为引发了两个关键问题：黄金价格下跌时，何种资产是安全的避险工具，以及各国央行大量持 有黄金将如何影响它们的金库。 消息面上，在深圳市黄金珠宝首饰行业协会发出警示函，明确提示水贝地区部分黄金公司开展的"预定价 交易"可能涉嫌违法后，这类交易并未收敛，反而以更隐蔽的方式、更复杂的规则，继续野蛮生长。部分 平台已不再主打"预定价"概念，转而推出"定价结算"模式，有的平台杠杆比例甚至接近100倍。 但被誉为"世界各国 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently declined to around $4,170, marking a new low for the week, primarily driven by routine position adjustments ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is pricing in over an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with discussions about potential easing paths extending into 2026 [1] - The U.S. dollar has rebounded slightly after hitting a low last week, but the strength of this rebound has been insufficient to push gold prices lower significantly [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield unexpectedly rose to a two-month high, putting direct pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noted that retail investor funds are simultaneously driving up both gold and U.S. stock markets, with both showing rapid increases [2] - Retail investors have been the primary source of recent fund inflows, while institutional investors remain cautious, indicating potential for increased volatility in the market [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading below the 200-hour moving average, with short-term support concentrated in the $4,164–$4,163 range; a break below this level could attract more short positions [3] - Key resistance for gold is at $4,200, with the $4,245–$4,250 range being critical for bulls to regain control [3] Group 4: Risk Factors - The BIS has raised concerns about potential bubbles in both the stock and gold markets, particularly in light of the upcoming policy decisions, which could lead to sudden reversals in market sentiment [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support safe-haven demand for gold, providing a buffer against further declines [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that retail investors have driven the recent rise in gold prices, shifting gold from a traditional safe-haven asset to a more speculative one [1] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noted that there is evidence of retail investors attempting to profit from the gold price surge, which has amplified this upward trend and deviated from the typical safe-haven behavior [1] - BIS highlighted that it is the first time in at least 50 years that gold and stocks have both entered a "bubble territory" simultaneously, suggesting that after such explosive growth, a sharp adjustment is likely to occur [1] Group 2 - Due to rising bond yields, gold and silver futures prices declined, with December gold futures falling by 0.6% to $4187.20 per ounce, ending a three-day winning streak [2] - December silver futures dropped by 1.1% to $57.779 per ounce, marking the fourth decline in five trading days [2] - The market is pricing in a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while investors are awaiting further guidance on monetary policy from Powell [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by economist Hong Hao about selling gold at $4,500 per ounce has sparked significant controversy, as this price point has not been observed in mainstream market data, raising questions about the validity of his claims [1][14]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Controversy - Hong Hao's declaration of selling gold at $4,500 has led to a market "earthquake," with many investors noting that this price has never appeared in market data, as even the $4,400 threshold was not breached [4][17]. - Despite the backlash, Hong Hao defended his position by stating he was trading in "gold futures," but this did not quell the skepticism surrounding his claims [4][17]. - Investigations into historical data from the COMEX revealed that certain non-mainstream contracts did reach prices above $4,500, which could provide some support for Hong's statement [8][21]. Group 2: Trading Data and Analysis - Analysis of the COMEX gold futures data indicated that the 2608 contract did indeed see prices above $4,500 on specific dates, suggesting a potential basis for Hong's claims [22][24]. - However, the low trading volume and liquidity of these non-mainstream contracts raise doubts about the feasibility of executing large trades at those high prices, indicating that such transactions may not be representative of broader market activity [10][24]. - The main trading contract, 2602, had a historical high of $4,433, which further complicates the narrative around Hong's $4,500 exit point [24]. Group 3: Business Ventures and Impact - Following his departure from Hua Fu International, Hong Hao transitioned to a role at Lianhua Capital and launched a knowledge-sharing platform that has generated approximately 9.9 million yuan in revenue within a month [12][26]. - His platform has attracted over 11,000 members, indicating a strong market demand for his insights, particularly during periods of market volatility [12][26]. - The controversy surrounding his trading claims has not hindered his commercial success, highlighting the intersection of market influence and business acumen in the financial sector [27].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market has been highlighted by economist Hong Hao's claim of selling gold at $4,500 per ounce, which contradicts market data showing that gold prices have not reached this level, raising questions about the validity of his statement [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Hong Hao has historically been a strong advocate for gold, suggesting that it serves as a hedge against currency devaluation, and previously predicted prices could reach $10,000 [4]. - In mid-October, he warned that gold was in an "overbought" state, indicating that the risks outweighed the potential rewards, which was later reflected in a decline in gold prices [4][5]. - By November, he suggested that the market was experiencing a "high volatility phase" and advised investors to wait for better buying opportunities [5]. Group 2: Controversy and Data Discrepancies - The controversy peaked when Hong Hao claimed to have sold gold at $4,500 while the market was around $4,200, leading to skepticism as this price point had not been recorded in mainstream market data [5][6]. - Investigations into COMEX futures data revealed that certain non-mainstream contracts did reach prices above $4,500, but these contracts had low liquidity and trading volumes, raising doubts about the validity of Hong's claim [6][7]. - Experts suggested that Hong's statement might have been a "colloquial expression" rather than a precise trading figure, as the main trading activity typically occurs in more liquid contracts [7]. Group 3: Business Ventures - Despite the controversy surrounding his trading claims, Hong Hao has successfully transitioned into a commercial role, launching a paid knowledge-sharing platform that has generated approximately 9.9 million yuan in revenue within a month [8][9]. - His platform has attracted over 11,000 members, capitalizing on the demand for professional investment guidance amid market fluctuations [9][14]. - The ongoing debate about his trading accuracy contrasts with his growing influence and commercial success in the financial sector [14].