证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 周大生(002867.SZ) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Title] 周大生(002867.SZ)2024&25Q1 点评：金价波 动拖累公司业绩，2024 年延续高比例分红 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 6 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2024&25Q1 业绩，2024 年公司实现收入 138.91 亿元，同 降 14.73%，归母净利润 10.10 亿元，同降 23.25%，扣非归母净利润 9.88 亿元，同降 22.11%。其中 24Q4 收入 30.83 亿元，同降 18.79%，归母净利 润 1.55 亿元，同降 29.69%。25Q1 收入 26.73 亿元，同降 47.28%，归母 净利润 2.52 亿元，同降 26.12%，扣非归母净利润 2.42 亿元，同降 27.97%。 25Q1 毛利率 26.21%，同比提升 10.64pct，销售/管理费用率 9.46%/1.03%， 分别同比+4.52/+0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a significant drop in Q1 2025, attributed to high gold prices impacting consumer demand, although online sales showed growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.891 billion yuan, down 14.73%, and a net profit of 1.010 billion yuan, down 23.25% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 3.083 billion yuan, down 18.79%, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, down 29.69% [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 2.673 billion yuan, down 47.28%, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.12% [1] Product Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from gold jewelry was 11.439 billion yuan, accounting for 82.35%, down 16.62% [2] - Revenue from embedded jewelry was 758 million yuan, accounting for 5.46%, down 17.36% [2] - Other jewelry revenue increased to 601 million yuan, accounting for 4.33%, up 66.70% [2] - Brand usage fee revenue was 706 million yuan, accounting for 5.08%, down 18.13% [2] - Other business revenue was 387 million yuan, accounting for 2.78%, down 10.05% [2] Sales Model Analysis - Self-operated (offline) revenue was 1.744 billion yuan, accounting for 12.55%, up 7.80%, with an average of 343 stores [2] - E-commerce (online) revenue was 2.795 billion yuan, accounting for 20.12%, up 11.42% [2] - Franchise revenue was 9.187 billion yuan, accounting for 66.13%, down 23.26%, with an average of 4,798 stores [3] Market Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its main brand while building a diverse sub-brand matrix to capture market share [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.106 billion yuan, 16.698 billion yuan, and 18.421 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.108 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 1.377 billion yuan respectively [3]

周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 纺织服饰/饰品 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 受金价上涨影响，公司 2024 ...

纺织服饰/饰品 周大生（002867.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 13.03 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.60/9.97 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.97 | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.96 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.90 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 53.6 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 周大生 沪深300 相关研究报告 《经营业绩承压，渠道逆势扩张积蓄 势能—公司信息更新报告》-2024.11.1 《二季度终端销售承压，费用投入拖 累业绩表现—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，关注后续品牌矩阵优化 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 公司发布年报、一季报：2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to high gold prices, leading to a decline in consumer demand for gold jewelry. However, the company is focusing on brand upgrades and enhancing its product matrix [7]. - The company reported a total revenue of 138.91 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, with a net profit of 10.10 billion yuan, down 23.25% year-on-year [7]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 26.73 billion yuan, a significant decline of 47.28% year-on-year, primarily due to rising gold prices affecting consumer purchasing behavior [7]. - The company is expanding its self-operated stores and enhancing its brand presence through differentiated store formats, including collaborations with CCTV and new product lines [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025 is 15.47 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 1.11 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.4% compared to 2024 [6][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 19.0% in 2025, down from 20.8% in 2024, indicating a shift in product mix and pricing pressures [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 6.5 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling approximately 7.06 billion yuan [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan in 2024. The gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant revenue drop of 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, although the gross margin increased by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel optimization [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product and channel structure to enhance performance in 2025, with expected revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan. The dividend payout was 0.95 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.32% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 26.1% to 2.5 billion yuan [2] Channel Performance - **Self-operated Offline**: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with 353 self-operated stores, but Q1 2025 revenue declined by 16.29% to 5.27 billion yuan [3] - **Self-operated Online**: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, but saw a decline of 6.71% to 5.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [4] - **Franchise Business**: Revenue dropped by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a further decline of 58.63% to 15.84 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, while gross margins were affected by rising gold prices [10] - The company plans to launch new products in 2025 to stimulate demand, focusing on both gold and non-gold categories [10] Financial Projections - The company expects a revenue increase of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 14 times [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, with a revenue decline of 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit drop of 23.2% to 10.1 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on product and channel optimization to improve performance amidst a challenging consumer environment [5][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 14.7% to 138.9 billion yuan, while the gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 20.8% [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue fell by 47.3% to 26.7 billion yuan, but gross margin increased significantly by 10.6 percentage points to 26.2% due to rising gold prices and product/channel structure optimization [2] Channel Performance - **Self-operated Offline**: Revenue grew by 7.8% to 17.44 billion yuan in 2024, with a net increase of 22 self-operated stores to 353 [3] - **Self-operated Online**: Revenue increased by 11.42% to 27.95 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on enhancing e-commerce capabilities [4] - **Franchise Business**: Revenue declined by 23.26% to 91.87 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant drop in performance expected to continue into 2025 [5] Product Performance - Revenue from gold jewelry and embedded jewelry decreased by 16.62% and 17.36% respectively in 2024, with a focus on optimizing product structure in 2025 [10] - The company plans to launch new products to stimulate demand in the gold category and enhance development in silver and jade products [10] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3% to 143.04 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit growth of 3.3% to 10.43 billion yuan [11] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 10.43 billion yuan, 11.50 billion yuan, and 12.78 billion yuan respectively, with a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025 [11]