（文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 安粮期货表示，尽管短期内可能因技术性超买和流动性波动面临回调压力，但在全球主要经济体财政扩 张难以逆转、美元信用体系持续承压，以及全球央行战略性增持黄金的趋势下，黄金的长期配置价值凸 显。 华源证券认为，高铜价短期对需求有所抑制，电解铜杆周度开工率48.83%，环比减少11.90%。中长期 看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频发，铜矿供需格局或将由紧平衡转向短缺，同时铜冶炼在反内卷 背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入降息周期，铜价有望突破上行。 Wind数据显示，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跟踪的细分有色指数金铜铝（申万三级）含量达61.4%， 在所有的有色相关指数（有色矿业、工业有色、国证有色、中证有色、申万有色）中含量最高，该ETF 近10日累计"吸金"54.1亿元。 1月8日，COMEX黄金期货、期铜价格午后跳水，COMEX黄金期货价格跌至4426美元/盎司，较日内高 点回撤超50美元/盎司，有色黄金相关产品纷纷回调，截至发稿，黄金ETF华夏（518850）跌0.4%，黄 金股ETF（159562）跌0.86%；有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌幅扩大至2.39 ...

2025年12月11日，2025中国（三亚）国际黄金市场年会核心环节之一——"2026年黄金价格展望与市场 趋势分析"圆桌论坛落下帷幕。本次论坛汇聚了中外顶尖金融机构人士，就2026年黄金市场走势、驱动 逻辑变迁、产业链真实生态及投资策略展开深度激辩。与会专家普遍认为，黄金市场传统定价框架已被 打破，新动能支撑下金价仍有上行空间，而金价的高企，也对产业链不同环节带来了机遇和挑战。 逻辑颠覆：从货币指标到复合避险资产的跃迁 世界黄金协会中国区CEO王立新在主持中指出，市场已进入新范式。"金价突破千美元整数关口所需的 时间从几十年缩短到几个月，并且'易上难下'，这证明传统的、单纯由实际利率或美元主导的定价逻辑 已被打破。"他认为，地缘政治、全球央行重塑储备资产、以及黄金与风险资产时而同步的"新常态"， 共同构建了一个更复杂的定价模型。 产业分化：把握高金价下的机遇与转型 山东招金金银精炼有限公司总经理钱虎从产业实践出发，分析了高金价对黄金产业链的深远影响。他表 示，金价上涨带动投资类黄金产品消费快速增长，回购金业务同步升温，实体企业切实享受到市场红 利，但同时也面临交易成本上升、利润空间承压的挑战。 金融赋能：服 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold stocks contrasts with a slight decline in international gold prices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics where gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic asset rather than just a commodity [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 9, several gold stocks, including Western Gold and Sichuan Gold, hit the daily limit, while gold ETFs also saw significant gains, reflecting a surge in market sentiment [1]. - Despite the rise in gold stocks, COMEX gold futures showed a slight decline, suggesting a divergence between stock performance and gold prices, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1][4]. - The shift in perception of gold from a commodity to a quasi-currency asset is driven by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. fiscal policies and the ongoing re-evaluation of dollar asset safety [4][5]. Group 2: Institutional Actions - China National Gold's recent share buyback, amounting to approximately 19.45 million yuan, is seen as a strong endorsement of the long-term value of the gold industry [2]. - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7.406 million ounces (approximately 2299 tons) as of September 2025, indicating a strategic commitment to gold accumulation [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current high volatility in gold stocks may lead to a rapid withdrawal of funds if macroeconomic conditions stabilize, such as a slowdown in Federal Reserve rate cuts or easing geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and a potential shift in the global monetary system [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to reassess the value of gold in the context of its evolving role as a strategic asset amid a changing economic landscape [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the impact of Trump's announcement to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, leading to a decline in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly affecting major companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] - The non-ferrous metals index saw 55 out of 60 constituent stocks decline, with significant drops in key stocks such as Zijin Mining down over 4% and Luoyang Molybdenum down over 5% [1] - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) experienced a price drop of 1.66% but showed a premium rate of 0.23% at closing, indicating strong buying interest despite the market downturn [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals index has shown a cumulative increase of 17.85% since its low point on April 8, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 [1] - Historical performance of the non-ferrous metals index over the past five years includes a peak increase of 35.89% in 2021 and a decline of 19.22% in 2022 [3] - Analysts suggest that the imposition of tariffs on copper may not significantly impact the market, as copper has properties similar to a general equivalent, and the supply chain could face disruptions [3] Group 3 - The long-term support factors for gold prices include central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and inflation risks, with expectations for gold prices to continue rising due to a weakening dollar and increased interest in rate cuts [4] - The investment outlook for the second half of 2025 is positive for gold, copper, and rare earths, with expectations for copper prices to rise due to constrained supply and resilient demand [4] - The valuation of the non-ferrous metals index is currently low, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.24, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [4] Group 4 - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide exposure to a diversified portfolio of metals, including copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate investment risks [6]

Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment data has diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the dollar index and a decline in spot gold prices [1][2] - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February [1][2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is now considered nearly zero, with a 75% probability for a cut in September, indicating a resilient labor market [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors will support gold prices in the long term, despite a decrease in rate cut expectations [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves due to rising dollar credit risks and strategic asset allocation needs [3] - The performance of gold assets remains strong during both overheating and recessionary economic cycles, making gold ETFs a viable investment option [3][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.8% on July 4, with a trading volume of 239 million yuan, but has seen a 4.08% increase over the past month [5] - The net inflow of funds into the gold ETF over the last five days was 447 million yuan, indicating continued investor interest [5]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices rose above $3,400 per ounce on June 2, influenced by international political and economic conditions [1] - On June 3, A-shares opened with significant gains in gold stocks, with the largest gold stock ETF (517520) opening up over 3% [1] - Key leading stocks included Xiaocheng Technology, Western Gold, and Chifeng Gold, with respective gains of 8.61%, 6.67%, and 4.68% [2] Group 2 - The EU expressed regret over the U.S. decision to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, heightening economic uncertainty across the Atlantic [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for unfounded accusations regarding trade talks, indicating a significant geopolitical tension [3] - Analysts from Huachuang Securities noted that the abnormal rise in gold prices reflects strong investor expectations for a restructuring of global financial and political order [3] - Zheshang Securities suggested that the low volatility in domestic stock and bond markets highlights the value of gold as a buy-on-dips asset, recommending short-term trading strategies [3] - Gold stocks are viewed as "elastic amplifiers" of gold prices, offering higher volatility compared to traditional gold indices, making them attractive for investors [3]