Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant drop, with a market value evaporation of nearly 2.5 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, marking the largest decline since April 7 of this year [1] - In contrast, U.S. stocks showed a strong rebound, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.83% and the Nasdaq recovering from an early drop to close up by 0.88% [2][3] - The semiconductor sector was particularly strong, with notable gains from companies like Intel and Texas Instruments, which rose by 2.62% and 3.96% respectively [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials acknowledged a slowdown in economic growth and a cooling labor market while emphasizing that "inflation progress has stalled," leading to confusion regarding the direction of interest rates [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December fluctuated significantly, indicating uncertainty among traders [7] Chinese Concept Stocks - After a nine-day decline, the Chinese concept stock index rose by 0.84%, with companies like NIO and Bilibili seeing gains of 3.33% and 2.24% respectively [4] - The market sentiment among investors regarding Chinese stocks has been volatile, with some expressing relief at the recent recovery [4] Investment Strategies - A significant outflow of 178 billion yuan from domestic investors raised concerns about market support, while some private equity managers indicated that quality growth stocks are now in a favorable position for investment [4] - The trend of stock buybacks is gaining momentum, with at least 17 companies announcing buyback plans, which may signal confidence from industry capital [7] Sector Performance - The travel and tourism sector saw unexpected gains, attributed to the recovery of international flights, with related stocks rising by 3% [9] - The technology sector is undergoing a repositioning, with funds actively seeking to capitalize on undervalued tech stocks [7] Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing a split sentiment, with some investors feeling panic while others are looking for buying opportunities, as evidenced by increased online activity in stock forums [11] - The upcoming trading session is anticipated to be a critical battleground for bulls and bears, with expectations for a potential rebound [11]

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is weak, with a lack of clear drivers in the spot market, but there are optimistic expectations for upcoming policies [1] - Internationally, stock markets have declined, and unexpected increases in non-farm payroll data have reduced expectations for interest rate cuts in December, although the likelihood of a rate cut is still increasing [1][2] - Domestic events are relatively quiet, but there is a growing call for policies to counteract excessive competition, leading to increased market speculation towards the end of the month [1] Group 2 - The supply side of coking coal is weakening due to a slowdown in strong expectations, with coking coal prices experiencing a continuous decline since late October [1][2] - Despite improved profits for independent coking plants, there are doubts about the sustainability of demand recovery, leading to insufficient positive factors for the coking coal demand side [1][2] Group 3 - Steel production has seen a slight increase as some steel mills have lifted production restrictions, but overall supply pressure remains manageable due to low profit levels [4] - Seasonal demand weakness is impacting steel inventory reduction, with limited upward momentum in demand, leading to a stable but low trading range [5] - Steel mills are under pressure as profitability drops below 37%, but there are signs of price stabilization, indicating limited downside potential [5]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月14日全球股市和贵金属市场受挫】11月14日，美联储官员鹰派信号浇灭市场对美国12月降息希 望，混乱数据日历和人工智能泡沫担忧，令全球股市和贵金属市场周五重创。从东京到巴黎、伦敦的蓝 筹股市场大幅下跌，英国市场因对预算案新担忧加剧痛苦。美国股指期货预示华尔街股市开盘黯淡，周 四已大幅下挫。 CIBC Markets外汇策略主管称，12月降息预期回到五五开，加上人工智能泡沫担忧， 破坏市场情绪稳定，本月市场情绪反复无常。白宫粉碎市场对美国状况很快清晰的希望，称10月美国失 业数据可能无法获得，加剧美联储暂停行动的看法。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 12 月降息预期下降，铜价下挫 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 30 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内下挫。当地时间 10 月 30 日，国家主席习近平在釜山同美 国总统特朗普举行会晤，中美关系破冰，凌晨美联储如期降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利 率下调至 3.75%-4.00%，并宣布自 12 月 1 日起结束资产负债表缩减。供应端，印尼 Grasberg、智利 El Teniente、刚果金卡莫阿等接连发生事故或停产，导致全球铜精矿 供应短缺，国内铜矿库存连续去化，TC/RC 费用高企，提供铜价上行的主要驱动力，消 息人士表示，中国铜原料联合谈判小组决定暂不设定第四季度铜精矿处理费/精炼费指导 价。2025 年 11 月铜产量还有概率继续走低，目前有检修计划的冶炼厂 5 家，且阳极板 供应将持续紧张，铜冶炼原料端缺乏。下游受高价铜的抑制，购买积极性不佳，近日社 会铜库存温和增加，关注后续铜库存消化情况，是否有延续累库趋势。综合来看，美联 储降息会议召开后，市场对于 12 月降息的预期走弱，日盘开盘沪铜下挫，但基本面上矿 山品级下降及矿端的扰动依然上调了对于铜价的普遍预期，且 ...