华尔街交易部门预计，周四发布的消费者价格指数（CPI）将显示通胀升温，但由于就业市场情况主导市场叙事，他 们并未为股市大幅波动做准备。 花旗美国股票交易策略主管斯图尔特·凯泽（Stuart Kaiser）表示，期权交易员押注，CPI报告发布后，标普500指数 （SPX）的涨跌波动幅度将温和，约为0.7%。这一预期低于过去一年CPI发布日0.9%的平均实际波动，也低于10月 3日下一份就业报告发布前的波动预期。且凯泽认为，当前隐含的波动预期已偏高。 这一切都与交易员对美联储利率路径的预判有关。由于美国就业数据显示出"足以威胁经济增长"的疲软迹象，市场 预计美联储在9月会议结束时，将把联邦基金利率下调25个基点，且可能在10月和12月的会议上继续降息。 华尔街正高度关注美联储的思路，市场已定价未来一年降息幅度超1个百分点。而通胀上升可能会打乱这一路径。 摩根大通全球市场情报主管安德鲁·泰勒（Andrew Tyler）周一在给客户的报告中写道："我们认为，CPI数据不会出 现'会迫使美联储在9月暂停降息'的真实风险。但我们确实认为，若此次CPI数据显著偏鹰派，将改变美联储对10月 和12月会议的应对策略。" 多家大 ...

Core Viewpoint - September is historically the most challenging month for the U.S. stock market, with increased volatility and a tendency for seasonal weakness [1][2] Group 1: Historical Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, with only 42.2% of years showing an increase [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also perform poorly in September, with average declines of 1.1% and 0.9% respectively [2] - Historical data shows that if the market is in an upward trend before September, the seasonal weakness may dissipate [2][3] Group 2: Recent Market Trends - The U.S. stock market had a strong performance in August, with the DJI rising 3.2%, marking its best August since 2020 [3] - The Russell 2000 index saw a significant increase of 7% in August, the best monthly performance in 25 years [3] - The S&P 500 was above its 200-day moving average, which historically correlates with a higher likelihood of positive performance in September [4][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Expectations - Key events influencing September's market include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding whether the rate cut will be dovish or hawkish is a significant factor for market direction [5] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has recently dropped, indicating a low volatility environment that may precede increased market fluctuations [5][6][7]

未来14个交易日内，就业报告、关键通胀数据以及美联储利率决议将陆续公布。随着投资者结束暑期休 假，这些事件将为其投资决策定下基调。目前股市似乎正处于十字路口：标普500指数刚录得3月以来最 弱月度涨幅，且即将进入历史上通常表现最差的9月。与此同时，市场波动性已然消失。自6月底以来， 芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX，俗称 "恐慌指数"）仅一次突破关键的20点关口。标普500指数已 连续91个交易日未出现2%的单日跌幅，为2024年7月以来最长纪录。该指数在8月28日触及6501.58点的 历史新高，自4月8日低点以来累计上涨30%，今年以来涨幅达9.8%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

格隆汇8月27日｜波动率已经消失，对冲基金正押注这种平静将持续，以三年来未见的速度做空芝加哥 期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）。但这种诡异的平静与极端仓位在历史上往往预示着动荡骤然加剧与股 市下跌。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，截至8月19日当周，对冲基金和大型投机者在与 VIX挂钩的期货中净空头头寸约92,786份合约，这是自2022年9月以来的最高水平。Susquehanna衍生品 策略联席主管克里斯·墨菲表示，这既可能是信心的体现，也可能是自满的表现。VIX当前水平较过去 一年平均值低约24%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - Tom Lee, a seasoned investor, noted that the market's mild reaction to the U.S. bombing of Iran was not surprising, as major stock indices remained stable despite the conflict [1] - The S&P 500 index has maintained over 20% returns for two consecutive years, and after a significant drop in April, it has rebounded nearly 20% since early April [2] - Lee emphasized that the current market performance suggests a positive outlook for the stock market in the second half of the year, as it has passed a stress test without significant declines [2] Group 2 - Lee observed that while speculative trends are emerging, the market is not as tense as it was during the speculative frenzy of 2021, indicating a healthier macroeconomic environment [3] - He believes that the visibility of tariffs and regulatory changes provides opportunities for unexpected positive surprises in the market [3] - Lee expressed optimism about the stock market, suggesting that with cash on the sidelines, there is potential for upward movement [4]