2025.11. 17 对耶伦而言，保护美联储的问题与维护法治息息相关。她说，她预料到特朗普会像第一任期那样批评 美联储，但"现在看来，他倾向于动用行政权力来清除那些他不喜欢的人"。 本文字数：1543，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 美联储前主席耶伦近日表示："我们正面临沦为'香蕉共和国'的危险。我对此深信不疑。" 当前，耶伦曾工作过的美联储面临前所未有的压力。美国总统特朗普不断呼吁降息，曾数次威胁要解 雇美联储主席鲍威尔。耶伦说，特朗普不仅要求降低利率，而且还以减轻政府债务负担为由提出这一 要求。在她看来，这是双重禁忌：不仅打破了民选官员不得干预货币政策的长期惯例，而且还明确呼 吁美联储无视其追求充分就业和稳定通胀的法定职责。这样做将抹杀国会财政政策和美联储货币政策 之间的界限，摧毁美联储在抑制通胀方面的信誉。 美联储独立性危机 耶伦是迄今为止唯一曾担任过美联储主席、美国财政部部长和白宫经济顾问委员会主席的经济学家。 特朗普政府目前在试图以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇拜登政府任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克，后者否 认有任何不当行为，案件将提交至美国最高法院。 耶伦认为，如果特朗普成功解雇库克，"美 ...

在需求侧，蔡昉提到，伴随人口的负增长、老龄化程度加剧，消费需求成为越来越大的制约因素。劳动 年龄人口因承担养老保险缴费、家庭养老责任和预防性储蓄三重负担，消费能力受到抑制。而老年人群 体则因收入有限，消费能力和消费意愿都偏低。人工智能应致力于提升各年龄段人口的消费能力与消费 意愿。 "通过人工智能赋能基本养老保险制度和银发经济，既可提高赡养生产率，扩大养老资源，又可提高分 享水平，让科技成果惠及老年人。"蔡昉提到。 编辑：冯樱子 蔡昉引用亚马逊创始人贝佐斯的观点，这轮投资热潮存在着泡沫。将泡沫区分为产业泡沫与金融泡沫。 前者虽然伴随过热，但最终能沉淀下技术、提升生产率、增加社会财富；后者则注定破裂并带来冲击。 "中国的优势是人工智能的应用，有庞大的应用市场、丰富的应用场景。在应用中，AI的双刃剑属性会 充分显现。"蔡昉表示，"智能向善"绝非局限于技术研发或开发环节的单一"对齐"，而需贯穿人工智能 应用的全流程，联动所有参与主体共同对标，其方向选择将直接决定人工智能的整体发展路径。 在人工智能"对齐"方面，蔡昉提到，如何让人工智能系统与人类价值观、道德标准保持一致，并引入人 工智能投资应如何对标高质量发展目标？ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes multiple aspects including macro - data, commodity investment, financial news, and stock market trends, and presents various viewpoints and expectations for different industries. For example, in 2026, fiscal policy is expected to continue a moderately expansionary trend, and monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose tone [32]. - The Chinese economy is expected to have new momentum and new forces emerging in 2026, and it is recommended to invest in Chinese A - share assets [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 4.8% at constant prices, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, up slightly from 50.0% in the previous month [1]. - In September 2025, M1 year - on - year growth was 7.2%, up from 6.0% in the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in the previous month [1]. - In October 2025, CPI year - on - year was 0.2%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month; PPI year - on - year was - 2.1%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month [1]. 2. Commodity Investment 2.1 Comprehensive - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds have been fully disbursed by October 29, 2025 [2]. - As of November 11, 2025, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 29 had negative basis [3]. - The US will suspend the implementation of export control penetration rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026 [3]. 2.2 Metals - From November 15, 2025, the minimum fixed - amount investment for accumulated gold in CITIC Bank will be adjusted from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and the daily accumulation starting amount for gold in China Construction Bank will be raised from 1000 yuan to 1200 yuan [5]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. Deutsche Bank predicts future prices for silver, platinum, palladium, gold, copper, aluminum, and zinc [5]. 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The National Development and Reform Commission will ensure energy supply, and on November 11, 2025, the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea was put into production [8]. 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The US's new sanctions on Russian crude oil and the expected end of the US government shutdown boosted the price of Brent crude oil [9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may affect palm oil exports and prices [9]. 2.5 Agricultural Products - On November 10, 2025, the price of white - striped pigs in Beijing Xinfadi Market decreased compared to the average price on October 31 [12]. - Germany's oilseed industry association UFOP estimates the winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 [12]. - Brazil's November 2025 exports of soybeans, corn, and soybean meal are expected to increase [12]. 3. Financial News 3.1 Open Market - On November 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan [14]. 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, deepen financial reform, and expand high - level opening - up [15]. - The Chinese government encourages the development of the bond market's "technology board" and promotes the internationalization of the RMB [17]. - The US Senate voted to end the government shutdown, and the House of Representatives will vote on the temporary appropriation bill [23]. 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market generally continued to be warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling [25]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.16% [26]. 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 32 basis points at 7.1207 on November 11, 2025 [30]. 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities predicts that in 2026, fiscal policy will continue to be moderately expansionary, and monetary policy will be moderately loose [32]. - It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% [33]. 4. Stock Market - A - shares were weakly sorted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.4% [37]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.18%, and south - bound funds had a net inflow of HK$44.67 billion on November 11, 2025 [38]. - Since October, margin trading funds have continuously flowed into the power equipment, electronics, and non - ferrous metals industries [38]. - As of November 11, 2025, 87 new stocks have been listed in the Hong Kong stock market this year, with a total IPO fundraising of over HK$240 billion [39].