中新社华盛顿11月20日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国劳工部20日发布数据称，美国9月非农部门新增就业11.9万 人，失业率为4.4%。这份就业数据报告因政府停摆被推迟了近七周才发布。 美劳工部同时修正此前两月的就业数据：7月的非农新增就业人数由7.9万下调至7.2万；8月由新增2.2万 调整为减少4000人。7月和8月累计减少3.3万人。 美国劳工部20日还在声明中表示，由于联邦政府停摆造成的拨款中断，相关数据未被采集，也不会事后 补采，因此将不会发布10月份的非农就业数据，10月的部分数据将与11月就业报告一并在12月16日发 布。 美联储今年的最后一次货币政策会议将于12月9日至10日举行。这也意味着美联储的决策仍无法获得及 时的重要经济数据参考。 《华盛顿邮报》指出，尽管从许多指标来看，美国经济似乎依然稳健，但出现的压力迹象正在增多。招 聘速度放缓、消费者开始收缩支出、债务负担加重，而与此同时通胀又再度上升。现在经济学家担心， 由于秋季数据断档，未来几个月将更难识别潜在的经济风险。(完) 数据显示，美国9月份在医疗保健、餐饮业、社会援助行业的就业继续上升。运输与仓储业以及联邦政 府的就业下降。其中，9月医疗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve and the broader implications for the U.S. economy, particularly in light of President Trump's influence and the current AI investment boom [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warns that the U.S. risks becoming a "banana republic" due to political pressures on the Federal Reserve, particularly from President Trump, who has called for interest rate cuts and threatened to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell [3][4]. - Yellen emphasizes that Trump's actions could undermine the long-standing separation between fiscal and monetary policy, damaging the Fed's credibility in controlling inflation [3][5]. - The Trump administration is attempting to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which Yellen believes would end the Fed's independence, allowing for political interference in monetary policy [6]. Group 2: Economic Risks and AI Investment - Yellen highlights that the current AI investment boom may obscure underlying economic risks, with significant growth in technology investments projected for 2025 [7]. - A report from Oxford Economics predicts that AI-related investments could see annual growth rates of 20% to 40%, the fastest since the late 1990s [7]. - However, Yellen warns that if the tech sector underperforms, the U.S. economy could become vulnerable, recalling the tech bubble burst of 2001-2002, which led to a 70% drop in tech stocks and a decline in business investment [7]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Yellen expresses concern over the potential loss of scientists and researchers due to tensions between U.S. universities and the Trump administration, which could hinder technological advancement and economic growth [7]. - She notes that the financial markets appear stable, but there are signs of tension, particularly with the U.S. dollar depreciating by about 4% since the announcement of Trump's tariffs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current government shutdown in the U.S. poses unprecedented risks, particularly with potential mass layoffs of federal employees, which could severely impact the economy and market confidence [1][5][7]. Economic Impact - Historically, government shutdowns have resulted in temporary disruptions, with the S&P 500 remaining stable during such periods. However, the potential for significant layoffs this time could lead to a more severe and lasting economic downturn [1][5]. - Stephanie Ross, Chief Economist at Wolf Research, emphasizes that layoffs would lead to serious economic issues that are difficult to rectify in the medium term, as federal employees' income and consumer confidence are crucial for economic stability [2][4]. - The shutdown could create an information vacuum, as key economic data may not be collected or released, complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve and investors [2][4][7]. Market Reactions - Despite the looming risks, Wall Street remains optimistic, relying on historical precedents where shutdowns did not lead to significant economic fallout. This optimism may be misplaced if mass layoffs occur [4][5][8]. - Bob Elliott, CIO of UnlimitedFunds, warns that the current fragile job market could exacerbate the situation, leading to a prolonged economic recovery if layoffs happen [4][5]. Social Consequences - The potential for mass layoffs not only poses economic risks but also social implications, as the loss of income for hundreds of thousands of families could lead to decreased consumer spending and local economic downturns [5][6]. - The impact on local government tax revenues and public services could further strain the economy, creating a cascading effect on various sectors [5][6]. Conclusion - The current market confidence is based on assumptions that may soon be challenged if layoffs occur, indicating that the stakes are higher than in previous shutdowns [8].

在这种复杂局势下，保持利率不变似乎成了唯一理智的选择。然而，这样的决策对于经历财政压力的美 联邦政府来说，无疑是"饮鸩止渴"。在美国财政债务不断攀升的情况下，高企的利率使得偿债成本更为 沉重，而若仅仅依靠短期的利率调整来解决根本问题，显然是不切实际的。 当我们将视角转向中国时，这个国家的决策显得尤为关键。数据显示，4月份中国抛售美债达到82亿美 元，使其持仓降至7570亿美元。这已经是连续第二个月减持了。而与此同时，日本和英国则在逆势增 持，体现出中美之间的经贸关系正经历着重大变化。 6月19日，美联储在鲍威尔的掌管下召开了一次备受瞩目的利率决议会议，但最终选择了按兵不动，将 联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变。尽管特朗普对美联储施加了巨大压力，试图通过降息来刺激经 济复苏，但鲍威尔显然不为所动。这一决定，反映出的是美国经济正在面临的复杂现实。 中方在这个微妙时刻选择再次减持82亿美元的美债，令市场为之一震。这并不仅仅是一次简单的资本运 作，而是中美关系紧张、政策博弈持续升温的真实写照。当全球金融市场充满不确定性时，中国为何选 择在此时减持美债？这背后又隐藏着怎样的战略思考？ 美联储此次选择保持利率 ...

中金研究 美国2025年第一季度实际GDP环比折年率降至-0.3%，为近三年来首次萎缩。从分项来看，关税担忧带来的"抢进口"拖累较大，而消费和投资仍然稳 健。向前看，我们认为随着第二季度关税加码，内需或将进一步放缓，再加上库存消耗，出口下滑，经济或承受更多压力。就业方面，虽然4月非农数 据稳健，但劳动力市场仍在降温，而且就业数据存在滞后性。通胀方面，关税促使一些电商平台开始提价，制造商也反映原材料成本面临上涨压力。 综合来看，我们认为美国经济风险并未消退，二季度将承受更多压力，美联储在当前情况下难以降息，也会成为经济增长的逆风影响。 点击小程序查看报告原文 美国一季度GDP萎缩，二季度或进一步承压 美国一季度实际GDP环比折年率降至-0.3%，不及市场预期的-0.2%，也较去年四季度强劲的2.4%急转直下。商品进口是本次数据的最大焦点，特朗普胜选 后不断铺垫关税计划，企业担忧成本大幅上升，纷纷选择赶在关税落地前"抢进口"，一季度实际商品进口环比折年增速达到41.3%，拖累GDP增长4.8个百 分点。与此同时，企业补库存贡献了2.2个百分点，也侧面印证了"抢进口"的逻辑。衡量内需的关键指标——实际国内私人购买最 ...